Research master thesis | Political Science and Public Administration (research) (MSc)
open access
Post-election violence is often associated with structural conditions including poverty and ethnicity, and/or the strategic behavior of ‘big bosses’ and/or the electoral institutions. This thesis...Show morePost-election violence is often associated with structural conditions including poverty and ethnicity, and/or the strategic behavior of ‘big bosses’ and/or the electoral institutions. This thesis explains the post-election violence in Kenya 2007-8 by structurally testing existing explanations of this kind of violence. The analysis shows that constituencies in which the opposition won the elections with a small margin of victory experienced most violence after the elections. In these cases the election battle was most severe. After the elections politicians use violence to punish voters of their rival party by organizing violent action including protests and the deployment of criminal gangs. Besides, violence is used as negotiation strategy by both the opposition and the incumbent to influence the formation of a government. Politicians seduce individual citizens to use violence since their supporters depend on clientelist rewards in exchange for their political support. The allocation of state resources follows ethnic lines for which the political competition and the subsequent violence are ethnical in nature.Show less
In this thesis the question of how the social factors of language, education and territorial concentration influence the seeking of voice at the center and/or at the periphery. This question was...Show moreIn this thesis the question of how the social factors of language, education and territorial concentration influence the seeking of voice at the center and/or at the periphery. This question was asked in the context of Ethiopia with a specific focus on one of its multi-ethnic regions, Benishangul-Gumuz by qualitatively assessing the documented evidence of the respective groups’ voice seeking behaviors. The analysis of the Ethiopian Constitution as well as the country’s distinct history implied that the selected social variables -interacting with the constitutional provisions of Amarigna as a central language, partially weak guarantees for group representation and the constitutional promise of self-rule- might influence the voice-seeking behavior of groups differently. Firstly, groups not speaking the official language as their mother tongue tend to concentrate their voice-seeking efforts in the periphery. Secondly, groups with lower educational levels appear to be more likely to demand proportionality in institutions not subject to guaranteed group representation, whereas higher educated groups tend to at least not support such demands. Finally, territorially concentrated groups potentially controlling their own territory seem to be more likely to seek a greater group voice whilst more dispersed groups sharing their territory tend to refrain from doing so.Show less
In late January 1996, Greece and Turkey were literally hours from conflict after the landing of a helicopter with Turkish journalists on one of the two rocky islets in Northeastern Aegean Sea which...Show moreIn late January 1996, Greece and Turkey were literally hours from conflict after the landing of a helicopter with Turkish journalists on one of the two rocky islets in Northeastern Aegean Sea which are known in Greek as Imia and in Turkish as Kardak. Turkey’s intentions to dispute the Greek sovereignty of those islets led to the biggest crisis between the two countries after the Turkish invasion to Cyprus. The mediation of the US finally brought the deterrence of the war which was really close as Greek and Turkish troops had gathered on the islets and close to them. The fact that there was political instability in both countries at the time of the crisis creates a big question that is still to be answered: where the reasons of this crisis political? Domestic problems sometimes lead to external conflicts and the probability of the existence of a relationship between the domestic unrest mainly in Turkey and incidentally in Greece and the Imia/Kardak crisis still remains vague. This research will try to clarify the reasons of the Imia/Kardak crisis and to examine whether the diversionary theory of war has an application in it or not. Through the analysis of this theory and the description of the political situation in both countries we will try to come to a conclusion about the political dimension of this crisis.Show less
Advanced master thesis | Political Science (Advanced Master)
open access
Why is it that some separatist movements remain united while others fragment into competing factions? While one would expect supporters of a separatist movement to be united in the struggle against...Show moreWhy is it that some separatist movements remain united while others fragment into competing factions? While one would expect supporters of a separatist movement to be united in the struggle against their common enemy, the state, recent literature has shown that they often spend valuable time and resources on internal rivalries – yet little research has been done to explain this phenomenon. Based on a comparison of the cases of the Armenians in Azerbaijan, the Chechens in Russia, and the Abkhaz in their struggle with Georgia, this thesis shows that the ability of the separatist movement to establish institutions capable of providing effective governance is essential in understanding processes of cohesion and fragmentation. It further illustrates that the strength of the incumbent state as well as the amount of external support a separatist movement receives play into these processes in important ways. Future research will have to show whether these variables hold the same explanatory power in other contexts.Show less
This thesis deals with the issue of the Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunb Islands. These islands are disputed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, who currently occupies them, and the United Arab...Show moreThis thesis deals with the issue of the Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunb Islands. These islands are disputed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, who currently occupies them, and the United Arab Emirates, who to this day claim the islands as theirs. The strategic significance of the islands is not to be underestimated, as they lay directly in the main shipping lanes through which a significant portion of the world’s oil is transported. This paper has looked at the historical events that shaped the situation today, with a focus on the period between independence of the United Arab Emirates and the mid-1990’s. This timeframe is further divided in three parts, the events surrounding independence, the period of upheaval attempted détente during the late 1970’s and 1980’s and finally the reescalation of the issue after the First Gulf War of 1991.Using the theory of offensive realism as devised by John Mearsheimer and the associated concepts of power balancing, buck passing, off shore balancing and the role of the off shore balancer the events during this period have been analysed to answer the question whether this theory can explain the absence of warfare between the U.A.E. and Iran. Even though at times the situation seemed to be heading for war, the simple discrepancy between the capabilities of the U.A.E. and Iran resulted in a carefully balanced status quo that has been maintained since 1971 thereby weakening the key offensive realist assumption that the offensive is always profitable.Show less
Foreign intervention in civil war is generally perceived as being peace generating. While interveners may seek ¨stability¨, the result of intervention is all too frequently prolonged violence and...Show moreForeign intervention in civil war is generally perceived as being peace generating. While interveners may seek ¨stability¨, the result of intervention is all too frequently prolonged violence and political chaos. While previous studies have confirmed a causal relationship between foreign intervention and the prolonged duration of civil war, they have neglected to dig into the causal mechanisms that explain how such intervention extents civil war. In the light of an increasing occurrence of the civil war phenomenon coupled with foreign intervention, it is essential to acquire a complete understanding of the relation between foreign intervention and civil war so that policy makers can create more effective responses and develop the right strategies. This study contributes to this by examining the role of US intervention in the Peruvian and Colombian civil conflict. A careful consideration of these two cases reveals that a foreign actors that supports a government in civil war, introduces separate interests to the conflict. Subsequently, diverging strategies undermine the government´s ability to deal with the insurgent independently. Foreign intervention may temporarily oppress an insurgent, but by addressing primarily the symptoms and not the cause of the conflict, foreign intervention leads to a prolonged civil war duration in the long-run.Show less
Advanced master thesis | Political Science (Advanced Master)
open access
Why do people who face rather similar situations sometimes resort to violence and others do not? While structural factors are often assumed to be of high explanatory value for explaining the...Show moreWhy do people who face rather similar situations sometimes resort to violence and others do not? While structural factors are often assumed to be of high explanatory value for explaining the occurrence of violence, more recent approaches focused more on local dynamics and the specific position of agents in the political and economic system. Case studies entangling the specific reasons why people engage in violence are suited to gain further insight into these dynamics. Based on a comparison of the cases of North Sinai and South Sinai which show very different levels of violence despite sharing many similarities, this thesis shows the diversity of motives for individuals to engage in violent activities in North Sinai. At the same time it illustrates the importance of a shared interest that increases societal cohesion in the South of the peninsula and allows the people there to maintain nonviolent discipline.Show less
Over the last half century, North Korea has made over 2,660 military provocations against South Korea. Even during peaceful dialogue or institutional negotiations, North Korea has often engaged in ...Show moreOver the last half century, North Korea has made over 2,660 military provocations against South Korea. Even during peaceful dialogue or institutional negotiations, North Korea has often engaged in “unreasonable” actions such as provocations, violence, and terrorism when situations do not proceed according to plan, the goal being to force its counterparts to change their stance or make concessions. Various explanations have been proposed as to when and why North Korea employs brinkmanship. The key feature underlying these explanations is the precedence of factors internal to the North Korean regime such as diversion and human needs over other factors. This study attaches importance to South Korea’s foreign policy as a cause of Pyongyang’s constant provocations. The study starts with the question of under what conditions South Korean policies of coercion and engagement affect North Korea’s brinkmanship foreign policy. In order to answer the question, it examines two periods related to North Korea’s response to South Korea’s coercion and engagement policies from 1993 to 2008 by process tracing, employing tit-for-tat game theory, and tests alternative explanations. Its findings include: (1) North Korea is more cooperative and less belligerent when South Korea pursues coercion and conditional engagement; (2) North Korea is less cooperative and more conflictual when South Korea implements unconditional engagement. The findings of the study have important theoretical and policy implications. In terms of theoretical debate, the study lends support to coercion and conditional engagement as more sound strategies in dealing with renegade regimes. In terms of policy, the study recommends policy makers to (1) implement a strict reciprocity towards North Korea, (2) maintain a strong US-South Korea alliance, and (3) respond sternly against armed provocations.Show less
Advanced master thesis | Political Science (Advanced Master)
closed access
The crisis in Darfur is one of the world’s most significant conflicts. In the last decades, frequent drought and increasing demographic pressures are part of the forces that have pushed the region...Show moreThe crisis in Darfur is one of the world’s most significant conflicts. In the last decades, frequent drought and increasing demographic pressures are part of the forces that have pushed the region into a spiral of violence leading to a major humanitarian disaster. According to the Environmental Degradation and Conflict in Darfur Report (2009), carried out by the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP), Darfur illustrates the linkage between poverty, environmental degradation and conflict. However, Darfur cannot be understood merely as a conflict over resources. It is also driven by governmental deficiencies and purposeful mismanagement. The purpose of this paper is therefore to contribute to the study of the role of environmental resources in conflicts and in particular, their contribution toward the perpetuation of violence. Under what conditions does resource scarcity contribute to the perpetuation of violence?Show less
Advanced master thesis | Political Science (Advanced Master)
closed access
Recent research of internal conflict has changed the conception of civil war from the clash of two major actors along clearly defined political cleavages because of both theoretical considerations...Show moreRecent research of internal conflict has changed the conception of civil war from the clash of two major actors along clearly defined political cleavages because of both theoretical considerations and observations of civil wars in the post-Cold War era. On one hand, micro-level inquiries of civil wars concentrate on the importance of local issues in civil war environments and call attention to the fact that such local considerations are usually more important in participation and picking sides than past research assumed. On the other hand, the binary perception of civil wars also challenged by the increase in the number of symmetrical non-conventional (SNC) civil wars, fought mainly in multiethnic states and by actors with balanced, yetmutually low military capabilities. I argue that in this type of warfare actors feel less compelled to realign along the main cleavage of the conflict as it has been shown by research on the fluidity of groupallegiance in such wars. By looking at the cases of the Armenian community during Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war and the Baggara tribes of South Darfur in the Darfur conflict since 2003 I argue that SNC wars provide a good chance for pursuing neutral strategies. I argue that these neutral strategies are shaped by the values of two variables: the cohesion of the political leadership of the group and the relation between local intercommunal and supralocal national cleavages.Show less
The purpose of this research is to analyse the forces behind how secession1 states come to be externally recognised and gain international legal sovereignty. This paper addresses the overtly one...Show moreThe purpose of this research is to analyse the forces behind how secession1 states come to be externally recognised and gain international legal sovereignty. This paper addresses the overtly one-dimensional approach of current secession theories pertaining to external recognition. I posit to fill a gap in the existing literature by creating a new theory derived from the two existing sets of secession literature; external and internal. This will be a hybrid theory that incorporates both existing theoretical lenses to give a more complete picture of the forces at work behind external recognition. I then apply this theory to the case studies of Somaliland and South Sudan. The research aims to identify and isolate factors that influence and explain the external recognition of South Sudan and the non-recognition of Somaliland. South Sudan’s external recognition is found to be explained solely by levels of external involvement while Somaliland is found to have more influential internal factors than external. This leads to the conclusion that within the hybrid theory, external factors prove the most significant in external recognition. However, only through a hybrid theory can well-rounded and comprehensive research be conducted. The paper contributes to the academic field within Political Science of secessionist movements and state creation.Show less
In the past, the threat of nuclear arms and the states and actors that might gain access to such technology has resulted in the pre-emptive use of military force against states. Israel attacked...Show moreIn the past, the threat of nuclear arms and the states and actors that might gain access to such technology has resulted in the pre-emptive use of military force against states. Israel attacked Iraq (Operation Opera in 1981) and Syria (Operation Orchard in 2007) in order to prevent or forcefully disrupt their nuclear proliferation efforts. Currently, concern about Iran’s nuclear program has raised debate about the possibility of an Israeli pre-emptive attack. This thesis employs hypotheses from realist, constructivist and liberal theory to explain the use of force in counter-proliferation, using a strategy of within-case and across-case analysis of both prior attacks. I locate determining conditions that led Israel to use force in counter proliferation. The hypotheses explore conditions such as uncertainty about state identity, the perception of threat, the risk of shift in regional power balance, prior military hostility, hostile public statements made by state leaders, undeterrability and the domestic support of state leaders. Most of these conditions are present in the current case of Iran, when considering the possibility of a pre-emptive Israeli attack. If Iran’s military support to Hezbollah is interpreted as indirect military hostility, all the conditions for an Israeli pre-emptive attack would be present, when considering the conditions leading to the previous two Israeli attacks in counter proliferation. The analysis suggests there is a high chance that this will cause Israel to use pre-emptive force in order to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, as the “Begin Doctrine”, on which Israel’s security policy is based, will not accept such high security risks.Show less
