This research consists of a qualitative comparative analysis of success in authoritarian counterinsurgency. By analyzing multiple cases of authoritarian counterinsurgency, a formula is constructed...Show moreThis research consists of a qualitative comparative analysis of success in authoritarian counterinsurgency. By analyzing multiple cases of authoritarian counterinsurgency, a formula is constructed that explains the outcome of an authoritarian counterinsurgency campaign, based on a number of conditions.Show less
This paper examines the institutional legacies in COIN of the two most significant and experienced COIN forces, the British and American military. The most recent COIN mission, the International...Show moreThis paper examines the institutional legacies in COIN of the two most significant and experienced COIN forces, the British and American military. The most recent COIN mission, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, had many shortcomings. This paper will analyze the extent American and the British militaries in Afghanistan during ISAF were influenced by their institutional legacies of COIN. Case studies and secondary data was used to analyze the following institutional legacies for the US, the Indian wars, Malayan, Vietnam war, the war in Iraq and ISAF in Afghanistan. For the UK, the analyzed legacies are The Malayan Emergency, Irish Troubles, war in Iraq and ISAF in Afghanistan. A comparative and thematic analysis was conducted; to define concepts in the case studies across the legacies. Carl von Clausewitz was used to define and analyze the strategies outlined in this paper. The analysis showed their institutional legacies of COIN influenced American and British militaries in Afghanistan during ISAF. However, it remains the question of they have successfully learned from their institutional legacies.Show less
The Sino-American relationship in the 21st century is one of strategic competition. The focus of this research relates to the analysis of both sides’ strategic doctrines and their application to...Show moreThe Sino-American relationship in the 21st century is one of strategic competition. The focus of this research relates to the analysis of both sides’ strategic doctrines and their application to Robert Osgood’s Limited War theory. The purpose of which is to examine to what extent the doctrines provide a framework for controlling and limiting escalation risks. For this analysis five core elements of Osgood’s theory are applied to Chinese and American strategic doctrines in a South China Sea case study. The five elements include limited political objectives, limited use of military force, limited number of involved actors, limited disruption of society, and open lines of communication. This research shows that both doctrines on multiple occasions fail to adhere to Osgood’s theory and thus increase escalatory risks. On the current trajectory, strategic doctrines on both sides increasingly contribute to escalation but still offer opportunities to avoid conflict.Show less
The Israeli-Hezbollah conflict is an interesting case from a Strategic Studies perspective. Considering the theoretical difficulties in deterring violent non-state actors (VNSAs), there is an...Show moreThe Israeli-Hezbollah conflict is an interesting case from a Strategic Studies perspective. Considering the theoretical difficulties in deterring violent non-state actors (VNSAs), there is an ongoing debate in the field regarding the appropriateness of applying deterrence strategies. It appears that Israel has managed to deter Hezbollah since the end of the Second Lebanon War (2006). To test if this is the case and assess its implications for the appropriateness of deterrence strategies vis á vis VNSAs, this paper set out to answer two research questions: “Has Israel’s military strategy vis á vis Hezbollah maintained deterrence over Hezbollah in the period of 2017-2020?” and ”What can Israel’s deterrence strategy vis á vis Hezbollah tell about the appropriateness of deterrence strategies when dealing with VNSAs?”. This paper employed desk research and uses a variety of sources to collect data. The data is analysed using a thematic analysis. The findings are placed within the framework of Rational Deterrence Theory’s (RDT) core assumptions. Based on Israel’s declared deterrence strategy, its ability to meet the core assumptions of RDT and Hezbollah’s hesitancy to escalate vis á vis Israel in response to consistent Israeli attacks, it appears that Hezbollah is currently deterred by Israel. Furthermore, Israel’s ability to deter Hezbollah, shows that VNSAs are deterrable under certain conditions. Hezbollah’s rationality, unitary nature, and limited motivation for conflict vis á vis Israel contributes to their deterrability as a VNSA. Furthermore, Israel’s informal adoption of the Dahiya Doctrine has allowed the Jewish state to maintain the theoretical ability to target Hezbollah’s high value assets, a core assumption of RDT. In light of Israel’s experience of using deterrence strategy to deal with Hezbollah, the academic community should be careful about disregarding traditional theories of deterrence when dealing with VNSAs.Show less
Russian actions in the Russo-Ukrainian War have been widely interpreted as a holistically coordinated, integrative approach to war – dubbed hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare has, in recent decades,...Show moreRussian actions in the Russo-Ukrainian War have been widely interpreted as a holistically coordinated, integrative approach to war – dubbed hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare has, in recent decades, been accepted as a strategic concept into the doctrinal documents of key Western military actors, including NATO and the EU. This paper argues that analysts misinterpret Russia’s operational, context-dependent opportunism in Ukraine as a holistic strategic method. So, in order to examine the extent to which Russian actions in Ukraine are actually strategic and whether the contemporary hybrid warfare concept improves or stifles that understanding, this paper examines the following: to what extent is Russian so-called hybrid warfare in Ukraine strategic? Three key events in the Russo-Ukrainian War are analysed using classical theory on strategy as a guiding framework, making use of a thematic case study analysis. It is shown that Russian actions in Ukraine are classically strategic to a highly limited extent because (1) battle is not always central and (2) Russian political coordination is either absent or opportunistic. Russian actions in Ukraine thus do not indicate a holistically integrated strategic method – which Western observers have eagerly dubbed hybrid warfare. Rather, the reality shows a method of operational opportunism enabled by a permissive political and battlespace-context. Hybrid warfare therefore does not merit adoption as a strategic concept, because it is not strategic. Using hybrid warfare as a strategic concept thus dilutes what we perceive to be strategic – and what we perceive to be warfare – proving the importance of testing new concepts against classical wisdom.Show less
In 2019 the Islamic State lost the whole territory of the once controlled caliphate. This phenomenon is addressed by various scholars, yet, this thesis adopts the perception of ISIS and to what...Show moreIn 2019 the Islamic State lost the whole territory of the once controlled caliphate. This phenomenon is addressed by various scholars, yet, this thesis adopts the perception of ISIS and to what extent it considers itself as defeated. This qualitative thesis approaches this case study through constructivism and also incorporates the military writings by Mao. By including these writings, the purpose is to discover where ISIS positions itself in the three stages of protracted warfare ultimately illuminating whether ISIS considers itself as defeated. Moreover, by incorporating the ideology and identity of this movement, it allows to answer the “to what extent” dimension. This illustrated that ideology and identity is strategically manipulated ultimately allowing the organization to endure, assemble and exploit the current situation regarding the COVID-19 pandemic and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Finally, this thesis concludes that ISIS never considers itself as defeated and regards this current situation as part of the divine up and down and merely a test of the divine ruler.Show less
Until 2014, Ukraine Distinguished itself from fellow former Soviet republics through its competitive political arena and lack of domestic armed conflict. That changed in 2014 with the Euromaidan...Show moreUntil 2014, Ukraine Distinguished itself from fellow former Soviet republics through its competitive political arena and lack of domestic armed conflict. That changed in 2014 with the Euromaidan protests in February, followed by the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in March. These protests turned violent, triggering a government sanctioned counterterrorism operation in response. Peace negotiations coordinated by the OSCE resulted in the signing of the Mink Protocol establishing an immediate cease-fire monitored by the OSCE. Despite these international efforts, the fighting in Donbas sustained and Donbas turned into a semi-frozen conflict facing sporadic military skirmishes. Within the analysis of new civil wars, further specification can be made to distinguish protracted social conflicts (PSCs), or those in which groups are deprived of basic needs on the basis of communal identity as a result of a complex causal chain involving the role of the state and international linkages. PSCs are of particular interest in the case of Ukraine as it experienced unparalleled demographic reversals throughout the 20th century. This research postures the following question: to what extent is the post-Euromaidan prevalence of separatist paramilitary activity in Donbas a manifestation of a protracted social conflict? Using an adaptation of Azar’s genesis model as a framework in order to attempt to partially answer the aforementioned question, it is concluded that the separatist paramilitary activity in Donbas is likely a manifestation of a protracted social conflict based on human need deprivation.Show less
The term hybrid warfare has often been associated with Russian operations in Ukraine, yet academia is in disagreement on the relevance and viability of this term. This thesis puts Russian hybrid...Show moreThe term hybrid warfare has often been associated with Russian operations in Ukraine, yet academia is in disagreement on the relevance and viability of this term. This thesis puts Russian hybrid methods and ‘hybrid warfare’ into a new perspective by determining the extent of which Russian hybrid operations have aided Russia in achieving its aims in the Ukraine conflict in a strategic manner. In order to do so, a strategic value assessment model was developed and applied to Russian hybrid operations in the context of the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent conflict in Eastern Ukraine. This thesis has found that, despite seeing relative success in Crimea, Russian hybrid operations cannot be considered as highly strategic. This is mostly due to the heavy reliance on the use of Russian proxy forces in the form of separatist groups, which have proven to be difficult to control in the long term and have acted out of line with Russian national policy on some occasions.Show less
ISIS during its prime was a terrorist organisation that dominated the news with brutal methods, their quick consolidation of power and control in the region and, as a result, society was hit with a...Show moreISIS during its prime was a terrorist organisation that dominated the news with brutal methods, their quick consolidation of power and control in the region and, as a result, society was hit with a feeling of unease. Where did ISIS come from? How did ISIS rise so well and so quickly? and how can we explain that? This thesis explains the rise of ISIS through the lens of a great military strategist, Mao Zedong. Mao’s theories on revolutionary warfare and the success of insurgencies were compared to the path that ISIS took to test their applicability and suitable to explain military strategy in the twenty first century. A constructivist approach was taken to qualitatively answer these questions through analysis of primary and secondary sources and this thesis concludes that, to a satisfactory extent, Mao’s strategic thoughts are suitable to explain the rise of ISIS.Show less
In the past decade, the Syrian civil war has seen several tactics and strategies, including chemical weapons. Various academics have published journal articles about the usage and the deterrence of...Show moreIn the past decade, the Syrian civil war has seen several tactics and strategies, including chemical weapons. Various academics have published journal articles about the usage and the deterrence of chemical weapons, but not many have argued the reasons to use these unconventional weapons. This is the gap of knowledge this thesis tries to answer. The research question is: “Why has the military strategy from the Syrian regime incorporated the use of chemical weapons in 2013 and 2017?”. The purpose of war and the strategies of war by Clausewitz (1873/1984), the deterrence theory by Schelling (1966), and the statements made by the interviewees have helped this research to an answer. It can be concluded that the al-Assad regime has rationally used chemical weapons. Although not decisive in gaining territory, it was certainly effective in stopping the advance of the rebels, discouraging them from fighting, and targeting the psychological well-being of the rebels and civilians in rebel-held areas.Show less
