The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains unresolved for more than three decades. Previous studies on frozen conflicts focus on various aspects contributing to their...Show moreThe Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains unresolved for more than three decades. Previous studies on frozen conflicts focus on various aspects contributing to their prolongation but largely neglected the influence of public opinion. However, existing studies on the relationship between public opinion and foreign policy argue that public preferences and attitudes may have a significant impact on elites’ decisions concerning conflicts’ development and resolution talks. In this thesis, I argue that studying public opinion in Armenia and Azerbaijan towards the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can have wide-ranging implications for our understanding of frozen conflicts duration. The analysis shows that negative public opinion has a profound effect on the conflict prolongation, both directly and indirectly. Directly, by constraining policy-makers in their attempts to resolve the conflict and indirectly by providing the elites with incentives to perpetuate the conflict .Show less
How a state responds to protests can have profound consequences, since the violent repression of protests may cause an escalation into armed conflict and diffusion to neighboring countries. State...Show moreHow a state responds to protests can have profound consequences, since the violent repression of protests may cause an escalation into armed conflict and diffusion to neighboring countries. State violence against protesters is an important topic of research, considering its potential to result in many civilian deaths. Even so, the literature on state repression and dissent does not explain variations in the lethality of state violence against protesters. Instead, existing studies only differentiate between violent and non-violent state responses to protests. I address this shortcoming by testing the theory that the lethality of state violence is influenced by protestergenerated concession costs. To examine my argument, I analyze state responses to Iranian protest events in 2009 and 2019. In 2019, state violence against protesters was significantly more lethal than in 2009. I compare both events using a process tracing method. The analysis shows that in 2019, protester demands were more radical and more recurrent, and protesters were more violent. This confirms that concession costs influence the lethality of state violence against protesters. These results provide substantial insights into the dynamics of protests and repression, which are useful for scholars, activists, and policy makers.Show less
