Election manifestos hold a significant place in modern politics and political science, providing structure to electoral campaigns, coalition building, and policy formulation. Yet, there is still a...Show moreElection manifestos hold a significant place in modern politics and political science, providing structure to electoral campaigns, coalition building, and policy formulation. Yet, there is still a lack of understanding on the intra-party writing process of these documents. Drawing on original interviews with manifesto committee members from four different Dutch parties spanning three decades, this exploratory research offers insights into the intra-party dynamics concerning the writing process. This study, employing qualitative methods, examines the interplay among various party layers and the evolving dynamics of the writing process. Contrary to the theoretical expectation that disintermediation of party organizations has led to the decline in influence of parties’ intermediaries on the content of election manifestos, the findings indicate a persistence of the intermediate party layer, while unorganized members are gaining influence on the manifesto writing process, and the leadership remains a central actor in the process. The conclusion is that intra-party democratization in the Dutch case does not lead to a plebiscitarian form of manifesto writing.Show less
In deze thesis staat de vraag centraal wat het relatieve belang is van de factoren geslacht, leeftijd, ervaring, partijervaring, het lokale karakter van de partij en de noodzakelijkheid van de...Show moreIn deze thesis staat de vraag centraal wat het relatieve belang is van de factoren geslacht, leeftijd, ervaring, partijervaring, het lokale karakter van de partij en de noodzakelijkheid van de partij voor een coalitiemeerderheid op de kans op voortijdig aftreden van wethouders om politieke redenen. Door middel van een logistische regressieanalyse is per variabele berekend wat de kans is dat wethouders wegens politieke redenen voortijdig besluiten af te treden. Uit de resultaten van deze analyse is gebleken dat de factor leeftijd als enige een significant effect had, waarbij een hogere leeftijd een hoger risico geeft op het voortijdig stoppen van wethouders. De overig geanalyseerde factoren hadden geen significant effect. Uit deze thesis kan geconcludeerd worden dat leeftijd een relevante factor is voor het voortijdig stoppen van wethouders. Ten tweede blijkt uit deze thesis dat er meer onderzoek moet worden gedaan naar verklaringen voor het voortijdig stoppen van wethouders wegens politieke redenen. Een voorstel is om deze verklaringen te zoeken in de ideologische verschillen tussen coalitiepartners.Show less
This research focused on analysing the behaviour of ethnic leaders in autocratic ethnofederal regimes during changing economic situations of economic growth and contraction and in changing...Show moreThis research focused on analysing the behaviour of ethnic leaders in autocratic ethnofederal regimes during changing economic situations of economic growth and contraction and in changing political landscape of democratization and autocratization. More specifically, the focus was on the Russian Federation and its two ethnic republics: Republic Sakha and the Republic of Chuvashia. The cases were picked to represent a wealthy and a poor region of Russia. The analysis was conducted through qualitative content analysis of primary sourced speeches and secondary sourced interpretations of speeches given by ethnic elites such as heads of the republic, other political figures, or important business elites. The analysis was organized into two periods of democratization 1997-2000 and autocratization 2008-2011, and 4 sub-periods: 1997-1998 and 2008-2009 (economic contraction periods), and 1999-2000 and 2010-2011 (economic growth periods). The results found that Sakha as the wealthier republic is generally more secessionist during periods of economic contraction during both democratization and autocratization. Support was also found for the expectation that ethnic elites will prove more secessionist during democratization periods.Show less
This thesis explores the impact of public opinion on the establishment of deradicalization programs for returning foreign fighters. The issue of returning foreign fighters has become increasingly...Show moreThis thesis explores the impact of public opinion on the establishment of deradicalization programs for returning foreign fighters. The issue of returning foreign fighters has become increasingly relevant in recent years and governments worldwide have been struggling to reintegrate them back into society. By implementing a bottom-up approach to deradicalization initiatives, this thesis contributes to the body of literature on counterterrorism and sheds light on the potential influence of public opinion on the implementation of deradicalization programs. Agency theory, which forms the foundation of the study, contends that there will be a weak implementation when public opinion is against a deradicalization program, but the government is in favor of it. To test this theory and the causal mechanism suggested, this thesis studies France as the case using a qualitative method that incorporates process tracing and discourse analysis. The thesis’ findings support the claim that when the government is in favor of deradicalization programs, but the public is not, the programs will be weakly implemented with a high likelihood of failure.Show less
The rise of China in Africa is well documented. However, little attention has been paid to how this has influenced the approach of traditional development actors in the region, such as the EU. This...Show moreThe rise of China in Africa is well documented. However, little attention has been paid to how this has influenced the approach of traditional development actors in the region, such as the EU. This study examines the Chinese influence on recent developments in the EU’s foreign and development policies towards Africa. More specifically, it focuses on the European Global Gateway Project, the restructuring of the EU’s external financing instruments and the EU’s rhetorical focus on developing ‘a partnership of equals’ with Africa. It argues that these developments were, at least partially, in response to China’s increasing influence in the region. I contend that EU concerns over its strategic interests in Africa and normative concerns over issues such as human rights and democracy both led to this response.Show less
This study addresses the behavior of regionalist parties in Spain as supporters of minority state governments. Focusing on three parties, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, EH Bildu and the Basque...Show moreThis study addresses the behavior of regionalist parties in Spain as supporters of minority state governments. Focusing on three parties, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, EH Bildu and the Basque Nationalist Party, this paper compares and analyzes their behavior in seven votes of the 2019-2023 legislature, looking closely at the exchanges of support and political concessions between the central government and these three parties. From this observation it can be concluded that the pay-offs preferred by the regionalist parties are territorial policy concessions, such as transfers of powers or state investments in these autonomous communities. However, it cannot be concluded that regionalist parties prefer multi-level goods, nor is there a relationship between the degree of regionalist extremism of the parties and their preferred type of territorial concession.Show less
This thesis analyses the role of political factors in conflict arising from climate change through a single case study of the farmer-herder conflict in Laikipia, Kenya. A better understanding of...Show moreThis thesis analyses the role of political factors in conflict arising from climate change through a single case study of the farmer-herder conflict in Laikipia, Kenya. A better understanding of climate change and conflict is necessary, as there is no clear consensus among scholars. This thesis uses political ecology that states that political factors, such as politicised ethnicity, access to land tenure, and perception of identity have a direct influence on conflict. It criticises the environmental scarcity theory, which states that resource scarcity due to climate change directly influences conflict. Mixed methods are used to analyse the role of political factors. The process tracing method is used to test whether power relations in politics influence conflict and the qualitative content analysis method is used to support process tracing by providing inside into the political factors presented in three major Kenyan newspapers. The results show that perception of identity, access to land tenure, and politicised ethnicity all contribute to a negative impact on the ability of pastoralists to access and influence the distribution of resources. This causes the competition for resources to become violent. The findings also show there is indirect link between climate change and conflict. These findings are in line with political ecology theory. Therefore, this thesis contributes to the theory and discussion in the literature about climate change and conflict.Show less
External events can significantly impact policymaking. This paper explores European Union policymaking processes surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine to understand better the influence of...Show moreExternal events can significantly impact policymaking. This paper explores European Union policymaking processes surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine to understand better the influence of such historic external moments in the EU context. More concretely the paper establishes whether the first year following the outbreak of the war created a critical juncture for EU policymaking on disinformation online. Furthermore, it analyses based on the findings, in more detail, either the impact of this critical juncture or the pathdependence on the EU’s policymaking processes in this policy area. Employing the concepts of critical juncture and path-dependence and by triangulating EU documents and interviews with EU policymakers, the findings suggest that no critical juncture occurred. Instead, this paper goes on to analyse “strategies and choices of political leaders” and “decision-making processes” in the EU and establishes how the policymaking processes following the outbreak of the invasion are best characterised by an activity shift from Covid-19 to the war. Moreover, the analysis indicates that EU policymaking processes continue to follow a path-dependence that has been created progressively since the establishment of EU policy on disinformation online, after the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014.Show less
Can terrorist threats be forecasted in a systematic way? Which variables help to do so in the most accurate way? The present study examines the relative importance of features when building...Show moreCan terrorist threats be forecasted in a systematic way? Which variables help to do so in the most accurate way? The present study examines the relative importance of features when building forecasting models on terrorist threats. To do so, it draws on both academic literature and publications by counterterrorist practitioners. This study addresses three key gaps in existing research. Specifically, it allows for comparing the utility of different theoretical models to each other, it puts an explicit focus on machine learning-based forecasting with out-of-sample performance metrics, and it explicitly aims to incorporate knowledge from the practitioner sector, which is understandably less open about their work than the academic community but has still produced several insightful publications on the topic of forecasting terrorist threats. The outcomes of the analysis do not confirm the expectation that variables of interest to both academics and practitioners would have the highest predictive power. Rather, it is the population of a country that scores highest, followed by GDP, data on weapon flows into the country, and religious fragmentation in models with no features based on lagged versions of the outcome variable. In models including such variables, the lag of the terrorist attack occurrence consistently scores second highest, and these models consistently out-perform their counterparts missing these variables. The results obtained in this paper are arguably of most use to academic research, in that they add onto a so far relatively limited body of work on out-of-sample forecasting and provide insight into the relative predictive power of existing theoretical models. Practitioners may be more interested in the methodological approach taken in this piece, which can be of use to them when evaluating the priority list of warning indicators to take into consideration when assessing the severity of terrorist threats.Show less
As the liberal international order recedes, China has emerged as the principal challenger of global governance institutions that promote human rights. While China used to act as an ostensible norm...Show moreAs the liberal international order recedes, China has emerged as the principal challenger of global governance institutions that promote human rights. While China used to act as an ostensible norm taker in the sphere of human rights, it is increasingly asserting its own authoritarian human rights norms ‘with Chinese characteristics’ on the global stage. Using Chinese ‘tianxia’ theory and realism, this thesis endeavours to uncover how China is working to subvert international human rights governance with a case study of the United Nations Human Rights Council (HRC); the preeminent global forum for safeguarding human rights. A discourse analysis of China’s ‘counter- institutionalisation’ of the HRC, reveals a strategic effort to block criticism, prevent independent monitoring, and change established conceptions about the very meaning of human rights. The robustness of the HRC’s mandate thus appears to be under growing duress. How other states respond to China’s affront may determine the direction of global human rights governance for decades to come.Show less
This research examines the relationship between increased fire risk due to climate change and a state's engagement in the Union Civil Protection Mechanism's (UCPM) fire suppression efforts. Using...Show moreThis research examines the relationship between increased fire risk due to climate change and a state's engagement in the Union Civil Protection Mechanism's (UCPM) fire suppression efforts. Using the UCPM as a case study, it leverages quantitative data on fire risks and UCPM contributions and qualitative policy document analysis to understand this relationship. The study finds a positive link between heightened fire risk and amplified contributions to the UCPM. The outcomes emphasize the role of risk perception in global disaster cooperation and underline the need for efficacious risk communication in shared frameworks such as the UCPM. The study also advocates for exploring other variables like economic capability, geographic proximity and institutional factors. These findings have both theoretical and practical implications, enhancing comprehension of global cooperation dynamics and informing UCPM policy interventions.Show less
Populist leaders seem to rely on misinformation, fake news, and conspiracies to expand their power and keep their followers engaged and drown out condemnation from any opponents (Bergman, 2020;...Show morePopulist leaders seem to rely on misinformation, fake news, and conspiracies to expand their power and keep their followers engaged and drown out condemnation from any opponents (Bergman, 2020; Tucker et al 2017). There has been an established relationship between populism and conspiracies, but the literature is still learning exactly in which ways conspiracy theories are used by populist (Taggart, 2018). This thesis conducts a discourse analysis of two controversial American politics to determine in which ways they use conspiracies. It shows populists will utilize conspiracies if they have a disparaging relationship with nonpartisan experts. Once they decide to use conspiracies, they are able to do so to explain why ‘the people’ are not a majority, yet their will should still be considered absolute. And lastly, they are able to limit the amount of information sources they advocate to their followers, potentially isolating voters from truth or criticism.Show less
This thesis analyses the impact of different levels of favourability of immigrant integration policies on immigrant-receiving economies in OECD countries. Specifically, the effects brought to...Show moreThis thesis analyses the impact of different levels of favourability of immigrant integration policies on immigrant-receiving economies in OECD countries. Specifically, the effects brought to attention are employment, wealth, and public finances. Existing literature predominantly focusses on the impact of migration in general on destination economies and differ in opinion as to whether the relationship is positive or negative. Some literature already deepens the investigation into that relationship by including the aspect of immigrant integration policy, to which this thesis contributes by doing a quantitative data analysis. The impact of integration policies is assessed using three different models. The first model is a one-way multivariate analysis of variance. To the second and third model covariates have been added, which are respectively the number of recognized and rejected asylum applications. The analysis shows that states with higher levels of immigrant integration policy are better at ensuring positive relative native employment than states with lower levels of policy. The relationship between higher levels of integration policy and higher individual wealth is partially confirmed. The relationship between levels of integration policy and public finances needs to be researched further to draw conclusions about this.Show less
Among the groups of civilians caught up in civil war, internally displaced populations are often assumed to have little say about their courses of action. In particular, current theoretical...Show moreAmong the groups of civilians caught up in civil war, internally displaced populations are often assumed to have little say about their courses of action. In particular, current theoretical accounts of civilian agency in civil war expect that, when facing high levels of violence, civilians can choose between staying or leaving their communities, and only if they stay, they can choose to resist against armed groups. This thesis challenges that these choices are always so clear-cut. Relying on secondary sources, it investigates how populations in northern Guatemala combined displacement and resistance during the most violent period of the Guatemalan Civil War. More generally, this thesis proposes that short-time horizons (civilians’ belief that displacement will be temporary), harsh living conditions that require cooperation during the early moments of displacement, and shared negative perceptions towards one or more armed groups, might lead civilian population towards the organization of collective resistance while being internally displaced.Show less
Mega sporting events (MSEs) like the Olympic Games and FIFA World Cup are seen by many as pathways for promoting human rights. While MSEs seek to promote ideals like peace and equality, there have...Show moreMega sporting events (MSEs) like the Olympic Games and FIFA World Cup are seen by many as pathways for promoting human rights. While MSEs seek to promote ideals like peace and equality, there have been numerous occasions where hosts of these events undermine the same values the MSEs strive to foster. This can be seen with the most recent edition of the FIFA World Cup in Qatar with the host accused of undermining human rights controversies related to migrant labor, women’s rights, and LGBTQ rights in the country. Given the phenomenon of state’s reacting differently to norm contestation, the central research question this project assesses is: How did democratic states respond to human rights norm contestations at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar? Building on literature from the schools of human rights, protests, and state responses to norm contestation, this study uses democracy level as an independent variable see its effects on state behavior at the 2022 World Cup. Using a most-similar systems design, a QCA is conducted on Croatia and The Netherlands. This study provides mixed support for realist thought that finds that the closer a state is to being a full democracy, the more likely it is to respond to a norm contesting MSE host.Show less
Despite the scientifically proved inexistence of human races, racism yet exists as a result of the social construction and institutionalization of human races in societies. In the United States,...Show moreDespite the scientifically proved inexistence of human races, racism yet exists as a result of the social construction and institutionalization of human races in societies. In the United States, anti-Asian racism exists and is exceedingly problematic. At the same time, for the past thirty years United States power is relatively declining, and China is a rising power and changing the international world order. The Obama administration and the Trump administration dealt differently with the relative decline of United States power. In this paper, the United States government narrative of China and its effect on national anti-Asian racism in the United States is researched. First, existing literature on government policy tools, racism and narratives is critically analyzed. Thereafter, a narrative analysis is performed on the narratives used by the Obama administration and the Trump administration in a comparative case study. The results demonstrate that during the Trump presidency, the narrative of China was relatively more negative and anti-Asian racism levels were relatively higher. This implies that a more negative narrative of China causes more anti-Asian racism in the United States. Hence, this paper contributes to the academic field of political science by exposing the relation between governmental discursive power and citizen behavior.Show less
