The field of International Relations (IR) is dominated by experts whose source of authority is opaque to the public. However, in 2005 Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgement revealed the inaccuracies...Show moreThe field of International Relations (IR) is dominated by experts whose source of authority is opaque to the public. However, in 2005 Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgement revealed the inaccuracies in expert predictions. As prediction is a defining feature of a maturing discipline, these results undermine the authority of IR experts. Tetlock found that accurate predictors “are moderates who factor conflicting considerations—in a flexible, weighted-averaging fashion—into their final judgments.” Six traits distinguish the cognitive style of these ‘foxes’ from their opposite, the ‘hedgehogs.’ This thesis converts these traits into a signal-analysis that can be used to determine the cognitive style of a piece of writing. This analysis is applied to a selection of six essays from the same source. The results generally corroborate Tetlock’s findings. Foxes make more modest predictions and avoid the pitfalls of overconfidence while hedgehogs make bolder claims which decreases their accuracy. It is also discovered that there is rigidity in the application of IR theory. Parsimonious applications of theory are favoured, which causes IR foxes to distance themselves from theory altogether. To restore experts’ IR authority, new theories need to be crafted which can integrate dissonant theories.Show less
Strategic culture is a controversial concept that holds many possibilities. It can be understood as the context in which strategic ideas are created. This has gotten the attention of many scholars,...Show moreStrategic culture is a controversial concept that holds many possibilities. It can be understood as the context in which strategic ideas are created. This has gotten the attention of many scholars, who have applied strategic culture to understand the behaviors and policy choices of nations. However, strategic culture can be applied to more than just nations, such as organizations. U.S. Navy strategic culture is the focus of this thesis. The U.S. Navy has a unique and rich strategic culture that is rooted in history and shared experiences. As a result, Navy strategic culture can be used to interpret defense policy decisions in order to understand them from a new perspective. This thesis uses historical contextualism and Colin Gray’s understanding of strategic culture to analyze how the Navy interpreted the demands of the National Security Strategy of 1991 and repackaged them into the strategic document ...From the Sea. Two key findings can be established from a Navy strategic culture interpretation of the National Security Strategy. Firstly, U.S. Navy strategic culture interpreted the National Security Strategy’s focus on regional threats as a change in the maritime domain. This signaled the Navy to shift its focus from open ocean warfighting to littoral operations. Secondly, U.S. Navy strategic culture responded to the demand for a forward presence in regions by expanding its commitment to being an expeditionary force.Show less
This paper aims to address the issue of aid worker’s insecurity in conflict zones, considering that there is a dearth of research in the academic sphere despite the inherent duty to protect those...Show moreThis paper aims to address the issue of aid worker’s insecurity in conflict zones, considering that there is a dearth of research in the academic sphere despite the inherent duty to protect those who protect humanity. By means of a comparative case analysis, it will draw insights from three relevant conflicts which involved at least some level of insecurity for aid workers in relation to warring armed groups, namely the Taliban, the Houthis, and the FARC. Indeed, rebel groups are a major cause of violence towards aid workers but the motives behind these attacks are far from self-evident. Hence the research question: how can we explain the violence perpetrated against aid workers by the hand of armed groups in Afghanistan (2001-2021), Yemen (2014-2022) and Colombia (1997-2016)? This research will thus examine three case studies considering relevant theories of the field.Show less
Scholars commonly analyze Lebanon in terms of fragility or weakness. However, its history says that it is also a refugee country where multiple communities have settled after facing persecution....Show moreScholars commonly analyze Lebanon in terms of fragility or weakness. However, its history says that it is also a refugee country where multiple communities have settled after facing persecution. One of these communities is the Palestinian, which arrived in Lebanon in the mid-20th century. Over the years, Palestinian refugees have developed multiple and intertwined means of political agency in this country. This research aims to understand which have been these means, how they have been used, and what have been their potential effects on Lebanon’s domestic politics.Show less
Over the last two decades, we have observed a surge in support for populist parties. As populism is known to thrive on crisis, the current COVID-19 pandemic provides an interesting case to study...Show moreOver the last two decades, we have observed a surge in support for populist parties. As populism is known to thrive on crisis, the current COVID-19 pandemic provides an interesting case to study its nature. This thesis tests whether the three-folded paradox of populism observed in the U.S. by Rogers Brubaker (2020) holds for the Netherlands and Germany, by means of a comparative discourse analysis. This analysis covers the Twitter discourse of Dutch politicians Geert Wilders and Thierry Baudet, and the German populist party, Alternative für Deutschland, during the first wave of COVID-19. This thesis thereby enters the conceptual debate on populism, arguing the observed discourse to not convey a consistent ideology, but instead to adhere to certain stylistic elements that could be qualified as characteristic of a populist political style. Moreover, the comparative analysis will shed light on whether the rise of populism can be classified as a global, perhaps ideological phenomenon, or whether national characteristics also play a role. Throughout this thesis, the role and importance of the contemporary media landscape with its various online channels for the mobilisation of contemporary populists are taken into consideration. As a surge in populist rhetoric could further uproot the established global political landscape, understanding this phenomenon is of high importance for the future of international relations.Show less
The increasingly multipolar world and the effects of the climate change have significantly impacted the ever-changing international arena. In the last two decades, the Arctic has become the last...Show moreThe increasingly multipolar world and the effects of the climate change have significantly impacted the ever-changing international arena. In the last two decades, the Arctic has become the last frontier, capturing attention of the world's most prominent actors, including the United States of the America. With the expanding US Arctic interests, the region encompasses American strategic thinking and the formation of new foreign policy goals, differently approached by Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump. While Obama swayed the attention to the Arctic governance, Trump changed its trajectory completely. Thus, the aim of this thesis is to analyze the Arctic policy under the Obama and the Trump administrations against two identity narratives - American exceptionalism and Jacksonianism, in order to delineate continuity and change of the US Arctic policy between 2009 and 2021.Show less
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as an international development incentive has raised critiques of hidden agenda power politics in many regions around the world. Although research indicates...Show moreThe Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as an international development incentive has raised critiques of hidden agenda power politics in many regions around the world. Although research indicates possible positive consequences of the BRI, criticists believe the development initiative shows characteristics of economic and political dependence through power politics. Some even argue the BRI shows neo-colonial characteristics. However, as China is not a former European colonial power, nor a developed nation, the assumption of classical neo-colonialism is inconvenient. This research argues that China is using the BRI as a new form of neo-colonialism in the 21st century. By holding the classical interpretations of neo-colonialism in the light of the 21st century, this research developed a broader conceptualisation of modern-day neo-colonialism. By means of an operationalisation framework using four neo-colonial characteristics (import and export dominance, dominance in crucial industries, fields and companies, backwardness and debt-obligations), this research found that China in some cases used neo-colonialism as an instrument to obtain economic and political dependence over Hungary, Serbia and Poland.Show less
