The Dutch company ASML produces internationally indispensable machines that manufacture advanced semiconductor chips. As a small state, the Netherlands are now caught between China and the US,...Show moreThe Dutch company ASML produces internationally indispensable machines that manufacture advanced semiconductor chips. As a small state, the Netherlands are now caught between China and the US, which are both interested in securing ASML technology. The purpose of this study is to look at the small state strategies employed by the Netherlands in reaction to US pressure to adopt export controls and what the impact is of ASML as a critical node on the power sources of the Netherlands. It proposes that a critical node mostly affects a small state’s intrinsic power (positively) and collective power (negatively). This will be researched by looking at official Dutch and American policy documents and interviews with government officials. It aims to add work on small state power and foreign policy strategies.Show less
Recent studies have attempted to explain the mixed results in the literature on environmental scarcity and intrastate conflict by exploring factors that might enable or mitigate the effects of...Show moreRecent studies have attempted to explain the mixed results in the literature on environmental scarcity and intrastate conflict by exploring factors that might enable or mitigate the effects of scarcity. However, the role of one of these factors, political corruption, remains underexplored. While scholars have made strides in uncovering whether corruption influences the scarcity-conflict relationship, they have failed to analyze its role in the causal mechanism connecting environmental scarcity to intrastate conflict. In this study, I address this gap in the literature by examining the role of political corruption in the causal mechanism linking environmental scarcity to intrastate conflict incidence. Using theory-testing process tracing in a case study of the 2012-2013 Kenyan Tana River District clashes, I demonstrate that political corruption in environmental governance can play a crucial role in the environmental scarcity-conflict mechanism by further diminishing natural resource availability. This increases confidence in the notion that political corruption might explain the mixed results in the literature. However, future research should test these findings in multiple different contexts to explore their generalizability and rule out possible alternative explanations.Show less
Climate disasters have significant implications for development and human security, especially in contexts that are already fragile and vulnerable such as conflict-affected areas. However, their...Show moreClimate disasters have significant implications for development and human security, especially in contexts that are already fragile and vulnerable such as conflict-affected areas. However, their influence on conflict intensity in ongoing armed civil conflicts has thus far been chronically understudied. In this thesis, I examine the potential causal mechanisms linking the occurrence of sudden-onset climate disasters and fluctuations in conflict intensity using Somalia as a single case study and theory-testing process tracing. This builds on existing research by considering the emotional and psychological impact of sudden-onset disasters in contexts of conflict and its subsequent effect on aggression and violence. The case-study analysis establishes, to a certain extent, a causal link between the occurrence of sudden-onset disasters and increases in conflict intensity. However, certain contextual factors, such as the strength of state infrastructure, are identified as key determinants for such a causal link to be established.Show less
My research delves into the correlation between economic external interventions during conflicts and the level of corruption in post-conflict settings. External interventions happening during a...Show moreMy research delves into the correlation between economic external interventions during conflicts and the level of corruption in post-conflict settings. External interventions happening during a conflict are often overlooked as a source of corruption in the post-conflict period. Using a theoretical framework, I analyse the various factors that contribute to heightened corruption in these situations, including instability, misuse of foreign aid, and the absence of the rule of law. I hypothesize that external economic interventions in conflict-ridden countries may result in increased corruption in the post-conflict period. By investigating the connection between external financial aid and corruption, my study aims to shed new light on the dynamics of this previously overlooked relationship. Using quantitative analysis, I was able to conclude that economic foreign intervention during conflict onset increases the level of corruption in the aftermath. By better-understanding corruption in conflict-affected environments, my research emphasizes the importance of further investigation in this area, where corruption remains a persistent challenge. Corruption remains a persistent challenge in post-conflict settings, and policies to address this issue must consider the specific challenges posed by external economic interventions. By identifying the factors that contribute to corruption and the impact of external economic interventions, policymakers can develop more effective strategies for combating corruption and promoting sustainable development in conflict-affected regions.Show less
This thesis explores the cultural and political biases inherent in generative AI models such as language and image-generation systems. It investigates how these biases manifest and their...Show moreThis thesis explores the cultural and political biases inherent in generative AI models such as language and image-generation systems. It investigates how these biases manifest and their implications for society, specifically focusing on models trained on vast internet datasets. The study uses Antonio Gramsci’s theory of cultural hegemony as an analytical framework to understand how generative AI, trained on socially produced information, reflects, and potentially reinforces societal values and ideologies. It provides empirical analysis through testing various generative AI platforms, examining their response to different prompts, and assessing their portrayal of culture, historical, and political subjects. The thesis aims to contribute to the broader discussion of generative AI’s role in shaping sociopolitical landscapes, offering insights into the extent and nature of biases present in these technologies, and their broader implications.Show less
Due to their limited relative power and material capabilities, neorealism posits that weaker states can either pursue a balancing or bandwagoning strategy against the revisionist power threat....Show moreDue to their limited relative power and material capabilities, neorealism posits that weaker states can either pursue a balancing or bandwagoning strategy against the revisionist power threat. However, Southeast Asian states are not behaving as the neorealist expectations suggest. Instead, hedging explains why these smaller states opt for middle-ground strategies, but this framework fails to account for sudden shifts in foreign policy. Consequently, there is still no clear consensus on what explains varying foreign policy behaviour in weaker Southeast Asian states under similar systemic pressures from US-China competition. To fill this gap, this thesis seeks to answer the research question: ‘How do domestic political factors contribute to a change in a weaker state’s foreign policy strategy toward competing great powers?’ The thesis approaches this question by using Schweller’s (2006) neoclassical realist theory of underbalancing behaviour which provides a model of four intervening domestic-level factors to explain strategic changes. The four domestic-level factors: elite consensus, elite cohesion, societal cohesion, and government vulnerability are applied to a single case study of the Philippines under President Duterte and analysed through archival analysis and process tracing. The analysis demonstrates that the four domestic political factors had influenced the Philippines’ decision to restrengthen their US alliance and distance themselves from further alignment with China to an extent. It further found government vulnerability and social cohesion to be the most significant explanatory factors. These findings contribute to a better understanding of weaker state foreign policy behaviour amid great power rivalry and underlines the importance of a domestic-level analysis.Show less
This thesis examines why BRICS emerged among Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, despite the dissimilarities between these countries. Following a constructivist approach, this thesis...Show moreThis thesis examines why BRICS emerged among Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, despite the dissimilarities between these countries. Following a constructivist approach, this thesis assumes that regions are not fixed but rather constituted and constructed through ideational factors. As such, BRICS is considered a ‘virtual region’. The aim of this thesis is to explain the process through which a collective identity paved the way for cooperation among the countries. The analysis shows that the BRICS identity is rooted in the longer-standing narrative about the Global South. The shared identity facilitated the alignment of their interests. Despite some variation, a development-multipolarity discourse is identified. The countries not only seek economic development within BRICS and the Global South, but also a greater voice in global governance. The creation of a collective identity and the alignment of interests paved the way for BRICS to emerge as virtual region, embedded in the Global South narrative.Show less
This thesis explores the impact of public opinion on the establishment of deradicalization programs for returning foreign fighters. The issue of returning foreign fighters has become increasingly...Show moreThis thesis explores the impact of public opinion on the establishment of deradicalization programs for returning foreign fighters. The issue of returning foreign fighters has become increasingly relevant in recent years and governments worldwide have been struggling to reintegrate them back into society. By implementing a bottom-up approach to deradicalization initiatives, this thesis contributes to the body of literature on counterterrorism and sheds light on the potential influence of public opinion on the implementation of deradicalization programs. Agency theory, which forms the foundation of the study, contends that there will be a weak implementation when public opinion is against a deradicalization program, but the government is in favor of it. To test this theory and the causal mechanism suggested, this thesis studies France as the case using a qualitative method that incorporates process tracing and discourse analysis. The thesis’ findings support the claim that when the government is in favor of deradicalization programs, but the public is not, the programs will be weakly implemented with a high likelihood of failure.Show less
Can terrorist threats be forecasted in a systematic way? Which variables help to do so in the most accurate way? The present study examines the relative importance of features when building...Show moreCan terrorist threats be forecasted in a systematic way? Which variables help to do so in the most accurate way? The present study examines the relative importance of features when building forecasting models on terrorist threats. To do so, it draws on both academic literature and publications by counterterrorist practitioners. This study addresses three key gaps in existing research. Specifically, it allows for comparing the utility of different theoretical models to each other, it puts an explicit focus on machine learning-based forecasting with out-of-sample performance metrics, and it explicitly aims to incorporate knowledge from the practitioner sector, which is understandably less open about their work than the academic community but has still produced several insightful publications on the topic of forecasting terrorist threats. The outcomes of the analysis do not confirm the expectation that variables of interest to both academics and practitioners would have the highest predictive power. Rather, it is the population of a country that scores highest, followed by GDP, data on weapon flows into the country, and religious fragmentation in models with no features based on lagged versions of the outcome variable. In models including such variables, the lag of the terrorist attack occurrence consistently scores second highest, and these models consistently out-perform their counterparts missing these variables. The results obtained in this paper are arguably of most use to academic research, in that they add onto a so far relatively limited body of work on out-of-sample forecasting and provide insight into the relative predictive power of existing theoretical models. Practitioners may be more interested in the methodological approach taken in this piece, which can be of use to them when evaluating the priority list of warning indicators to take into consideration when assessing the severity of terrorist threats.Show less
Among the groups of civilians caught up in civil war, internally displaced populations are often assumed to have little say about their courses of action. In particular, current theoretical...Show moreAmong the groups of civilians caught up in civil war, internally displaced populations are often assumed to have little say about their courses of action. In particular, current theoretical accounts of civilian agency in civil war expect that, when facing high levels of violence, civilians can choose between staying or leaving their communities, and only if they stay, they can choose to resist against armed groups. This thesis challenges that these choices are always so clear-cut. Relying on secondary sources, it investigates how populations in northern Guatemala combined displacement and resistance during the most violent period of the Guatemalan Civil War. More generally, this thesis proposes that short-time horizons (civilians’ belief that displacement will be temporary), harsh living conditions that require cooperation during the early moments of displacement, and shared negative perceptions towards one or more armed groups, might lead civilian population towards the organization of collective resistance while being internally displaced.Show less
The post pandemic (COVID-19) world has been significantly different from the pre pandemic one. As the world embarks on creating and adjusting to a new normal it is important to acknowledge that the...Show moreThe post pandemic (COVID-19) world has been significantly different from the pre pandemic one. As the world embarks on creating and adjusting to a new normal it is important to acknowledge that the duration of the pandemic saw not only a public health crisis but also a political one. The body of literature provides a rich understanding of digital repression and its various dimensions. However, there is a gap in understanding digital repression in the context of public health emergency, particularly in democracies. The COVID-19 pandemic witnessed the convergence of a public health emergency and a political crisis, with significant implications for digital repression. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the intensification of digital repression in democracies during public health emergency, contributing to a broader understanding of the intersection between digital repression, emergency situations, and democratic governance. The academic and social relevance of this study lies in its potential to inform policy and decision-making during future public health emergencies. Additionally, this study contributes to a broader understanding of the impact of digital technologies on democratic values, human rights, and governance in the digital age. The findings conclude that the states tend to amplify digital repression during public health emergency situations.Show less
In conflict literature, much attention has been given to the relation between food prices and conflict, as well as the effects of climate change on conflict and food security, in an attempt to...Show moreIn conflict literature, much attention has been given to the relation between food prices and conflict, as well as the effects of climate change on conflict and food security, in an attempt to explain civilian victimisation through food security. However, the effect of crop pests and diseases on violence against civilians has not been studied, despite the large proportion of worldwide crop loss caused by these factors. This study theorises that these pests pressure the local food supply and thus force armed groups to use violence in order to obtain their necessary resources from the local population. This results in the hypothesis that the occurrence of plant pests in an area increases the risk of violence against civilians by non-state actors. Specifically, this study focuses on the effects of locust swarms in four African countries: Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya. The hypothesis is quantitatively tested using both OLS regression and negative binomial regression. A positive correlation between locust swarm occurrence and violence against civilians is found, which holds up against both fixed effects and specific control variables. This new finding suggests that the occurrence of locust swarms shortens the time horizons for cooperation between rebels and the local population, incentivising rebels to quickly gain resources using violence rather than engaging in long-term, more peaceful cooperation.Show less
Research typically stresses the repressive component of authoritarian states-civil society relations, but the role of concessions in these relations is still under-studied. As such, these analyses...Show moreResearch typically stresses the repressive component of authoritarian states-civil society relations, but the role of concessions in these relations is still under-studied. As such, these analyses do not consider a broader spectrum of dynamics and overlook that authoritarian state relations with civil society often combine coercive and cooperative elements. Seeking to answer the question of what drives authoritarian rulers to give concessions to civil society, this research concludes that perceived country-level threats motivate state concessions to civil society organisations working alongside state objectives of national stability and social cohesion. Focusing on present-day China, this study uses congruence analysis to test its conclusions against those anticipated by the hypothesis. The results contest theories that assume the relationship between authoritarian rulers and their citizens as unidirectional and expand on the literature on “consultative authoritarianism.” In providing a broader understanding of these relations, this research also hopes to help equip democratic leaders looking to foster the growth of civil society in authoritarian nations with the knowledge that is helpful to formulate more context-appropriate and effective foreign policy goals and behaviour.Show less
How and why do civilians refuse cooperation with governments during wartime mobilisation? Research examining civilian cooperation and non-cooperation within conflict studies has largely overlooked...Show moreHow and why do civilians refuse cooperation with governments during wartime mobilisation? Research examining civilian cooperation and non-cooperation within conflict studies has largely overlooked the micro-level dynamics of civilian resistance in inter-state war. Addressing this gap, this study uses testimonial data on the lived experiences of Russian civilians who refused cooperation with the Russian state following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The paper develops an argument that manifestations of civilian non-cooperation are shaped by individual and collectivised security seeking behaviour within repressive governance structures. It integrates theories of civilian agency and authoritarian repression. Lived experiences of violent repression both construct the image of the state as a violent institution and inform the efficacy of tactics of resistance, resulting in variation between avoidance, overt-resistance and oblique-resistance behaviours. As an exploratory study, the paper identifies gaps in our understanding and avenues for future research on civilian cooperation and non-cooperation in inter-state armed conflict.Show less
Ever since various IPCC reports have shown the impact and consequences of human action on the climate, an increasing number of policymakers start to realize the urgency of altering the way humans...Show moreEver since various IPCC reports have shown the impact and consequences of human action on the climate, an increasing number of policymakers start to realize the urgency of altering the way humans deal with it. Consequently, climate policies have emerged in the European political realm aimed at mitigating climate change. However, Europe has seen a recent rise of farmer protest movements that oppose these climate policies. Often labelled as being ‘anti-climate’, these protest movements seem to have deeper underlying causes. Policy perception impacts the way citizens react, which should be considered during the implementation of policy. This thesis analyses the cases of Germany and the Netherlands with interview data of various protest groups elites and experts. It argues that when citizens feel that climate policies are unfair, exclusive, untrustworthy and their financial costs are perceived as high, protest movements will arise and intensify. In addition, results show that perceived sociocultural costs are most important for protest movement emergence and intensification. Policymakers should deal with these perceptions adequately if they want to implement climate policies effectively.Show less
