Over the last half century, North Korea has made over 2,660 military provocations against South Korea. Even during peaceful dialogue or institutional negotiations, North Korea has often engaged in ...Show moreOver the last half century, North Korea has made over 2,660 military provocations against South Korea. Even during peaceful dialogue or institutional negotiations, North Korea has often engaged in “unreasonable” actions such as provocations, violence, and terrorism when situations do not proceed according to plan, the goal being to force its counterparts to change their stance or make concessions. Various explanations have been proposed as to when and why North Korea employs brinkmanship. The key feature underlying these explanations is the precedence of factors internal to the North Korean regime such as diversion and human needs over other factors. This study attaches importance to South Korea’s foreign policy as a cause of Pyongyang’s constant provocations. The study starts with the question of under what conditions South Korean policies of coercion and engagement affect North Korea’s brinkmanship foreign policy. In order to answer the question, it examines two periods related to North Korea’s response to South Korea’s coercion and engagement policies from 1993 to 2008 by process tracing, employing tit-for-tat game theory, and tests alternative explanations. Its findings include: (1) North Korea is more cooperative and less belligerent when South Korea pursues coercion and conditional engagement; (2) North Korea is less cooperative and more conflictual when South Korea implements unconditional engagement. The findings of the study have important theoretical and policy implications. In terms of theoretical debate, the study lends support to coercion and conditional engagement as more sound strategies in dealing with renegade regimes. In terms of policy, the study recommends policy makers to (1) implement a strict reciprocity towards North Korea, (2) maintain a strong US-South Korea alliance, and (3) respond sternly against armed provocations.Show less
