The aim of this thesis is to explore the international component of democratization theory, asking: How has international election observers' involvement in promoting and diffusing democratic...Show moreThe aim of this thesis is to explore the international component of democratization theory, asking: How has international election observers' involvement in promoting and diffusing democratic electoral norms and practices during presidential elections in Kenya from 1989 to 2020 impacted Kenya's democratization process? First, the theoretical debate on the effectiveness of election observation in fostering democratization is explored. This part identifies that there are substantial knowledge gaps between the theory and reality of election observation, warranting exploration of the causal mechanisms and variables linking election observation and democratization. The necessity of exploring this also arises from the fact that election observation has had mixed democratization outcomes; in Kenya, there are two cases of democratic decline post-observation (2007 and 2017 elections) and four cases of democratic growth (1992, 1997, 2002, 2013). By exploring the negative and positive cases in a single and cross-case analysis, drawing on democracy promotion and diffusion frameworks, this thesis explains that prevailing assumptions of election observation that it deters fraud and cheating, promotes democratic practices, and diffuses free and fair electoral processes largely hold true. It will show that the reasons for varying democratic outcomes are shaped through how different institutions, methods, relations, channeling, extents of synergy, and ideas of "free and fair" affect this process.Show less
Do United Nations (UN) Peacekeeping Operations (PKO) impact democratization in post-conflict states? Currently, this question is up for debate and this study builds on new relationships recently...Show moreDo United Nations (UN) Peacekeeping Operations (PKO) impact democratization in post-conflict states? Currently, this question is up for debate and this study builds on new relationships recently discovered in the literature. Blair, Di Salvatore, & Smidt (2023) argue that UN PKO tactics improve the likelihood of democratization. This relationship is tested through the examination of four mission tactics between the United Nations Operation in Mozambique (ONUMOZ) and the United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic (MINURCA). The cases were selected using a most similar design, indicating the cases are similar in all regards, except for their democratization outcomes; Mozambique democratized, while CAR did not. The analysis revealed that ONUMOZ and MINURCA were very similar in their mission tactics and thus mission tactics cannot be considered the sole explanation for democratization. Rather, the size and budget of the mission, involvement of civilian personnel, and recurrence of violence provided more fruitful avenues for explaining the difference in the democratization outcomes. This research contributes to the literature and yields recommendations for future research on UN PKOs and democratization. Additionally, this research provides insight into how the UN can successfully design and implement PKOs aimed at democratization.Show less
This thesis analyzes the role of the middle class in China in the process of democratization. Based on the literature, two groups can be distinguished: those who state that the middle class will...Show moreThis thesis analyzes the role of the middle class in China in the process of democratization. Based on the literature, two groups can be distinguished: those who state that the middle class will inevitably support democratic processes and those who state that the middle class can be an important actor in the support for military regimes. In addition, there is a debate between those who state that China is too unique to comply with the theory (exceptionalism), while others state that the theory is universal. In this thesis, a framework is created to determine whether middle classes will support democratization, or not. The case of China is then tested on this framework. The economic dependency on the current regime, the strength of this regime, and the fact that the Chinese middle class is not a unified, homogeneous actor, make sure that the CCP remains firmly in power, without real indications that the middle class will support democratization in the near future.Show less
This thesis aims to uncover what factors explain the quality of democratic consolidation, whilst focussing on the recently transitioned democracies of Eastern and Central Europe. Building upon...Show moreThis thesis aims to uncover what factors explain the quality of democratic consolidation, whilst focussing on the recently transitioned democracies of Eastern and Central Europe. Building upon literature by scholar David Beetham, the thesis provides a framework of conditions that influence democratic consolidation. The thesis then uses this framework to analyse the quality of democratic consolidation concerning two opposites on the spectrum of democratic consolidation in Eastern and Central Europe: Hungary and Estonia. From this analysis, the thesis concludes that economic growth, quality of education, antidemocratic behaviour, and the proportionality of the electoral system are the conditions that best explain the contrasting outcomes regarding the quality of democratic consolidation in Hungary and Estonia.Show less
From 2010, the historically isolated state of Myanmar began a transition to democracy, a transition which would bring the first elections in nearly two decades. The regime diluted political power...Show moreFrom 2010, the historically isolated state of Myanmar began a transition to democracy, a transition which would bring the first elections in nearly two decades. The regime diluted political power between the military and new civilian institutions, allowing for significant democratisation, market liberalisation and de-censoring of communications and media in the years which followed. Simultaneously, the military implemented the most intense period of atrocities in the northwestern periphery of Rakhine State, against the Rohingya Muslim minority. To date, no research has sufficiently explained why the opening up of the state of Myanmar to the international community coincided with atrocities, the severity of which may well amount to genocide. Scholarship generally attributes Myanmar’s crimes to ‘ethnic-cleavages’, a narrative which has been debunked in scholarship on other atrocity cases; or over-zealous counter-insurgency, despite no significant Rohingya insurgent group being in existence at the time these atrocities began. Rather than atrocities being coincidental to the democratisation process, this paper argues transition in fact sparked atrocities in Myanmar’s northwestern periphery, by destabilising an internal balance of power between elite rival factions. Based upon extant research into political violence, it poses a novel explanation for the timing of Myanmar’s atrocities against Rohingya Muslims. It argues that the resignation of elites in the military junta in order to compete in the 2010 elections resulted in heightened elite rivalry between the generals which took their place. Changes to the strategic environment of Myanmar’s new military leadership led to a calculation by which atrocities in Rakhine State were perceived as useful for new Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing. Having faced insecurity upon taking office in 2011, Senior General Hlaing had insurmountable control by 2018, suggesting atrocities in the northwest periphery had proven successful from the perspective of the new leadership. A new mechanism for the regression of democratisation to mass atrocities is posed, combining research into political violence with the chronology and context of Myanmar’s transition.Show less
The objective of this bachelor thesis was to explore how media affects and contributes to the process of democratization. The research described in this paper set to investigate the Mexican media...Show moreThe objective of this bachelor thesis was to explore how media affects and contributes to the process of democratization. The research described in this paper set to investigate the Mexican media and analyze how the Telecommunications and Broadcasting Law of 2013 has affected the media in the framework of media pluralism. Specifically, it focused on the socio-political dichotomies between commercial and independent community media. In the quest to explore this topic, this paper first analyzed the state-of-the-art literature on media pluralism and its importance to media structures. Next, it reflected on the realities of the political and media landscape in Mexico and studied the media reforms that historically have been unfavorable towards promoting media pluralism and continue to alienate all other media outlets by favoring the big media moguls.Show less
Democratization of previously closed states is often lauded; however, it is an unstable process at the same time. This is also the case for Myanmar, especially for the Rohingya minority group that...Show moreDemocratization of previously closed states is often lauded; however, it is an unstable process at the same time. This is also the case for Myanmar, especially for the Rohingya minority group that reside in the Northern Rakhine state. In the fall of 2017, they were the victims of the biggest persecution of a minority group in the world in which 700.000 people fled over the border to Bangladesh, and an unknown number became internally displaced. This heavy persecution interferes with the period of democratization, something that is striking considering the emphasize on values such as freedom and equality in democracy. In my thesis, the research question will be: Does democratization help in protecting minority rights in Myanmar? It is argued that the absence of power sharing arrangements in Myanmar politics led to the persecution of the Rohingya minority. After the research, it could be concluded that the power sharing arrangements are not completely missing, yet, even the arrangements that are in place are not applicable to the Rohingya. The Rohingya minority became victim of persecution because there were no power sharing arrangements for them in specific that could give them a voice in politics and a political identity in order to mitigate the ethnic tensions.Show less
This paper examines the impact of democratization on the social spending behavior of Indonesia and the Philippines. Comparing social spending as a percentage of central government spending and as a...Show moreThis paper examines the impact of democratization on the social spending behavior of Indonesia and the Philippines. Comparing social spending as a percentage of central government spending and as a share of GDP over a period of approximately ten years before and after democratization, one can’t observe a significant change in the social policy priorities of politicians. Although theory would suggest that democratization would increase the awareness of politicians to focus more on the social well-being of its citizen, investments in human capital remained largely unchanged. This paper argues that the persistence of elites, both at national and local level, prevents a substantial change in social spending to materialize. Drawn from several empirical studies and secondary literature, this paper shows how the rent-seeking attitudes of elites translates into a major burden for lower-class groups to enter the political domain and to change social policy (spending) to their favor.Show less
Mikheil Saakashvili came to power in Georgia in 2003 after the bloodless Rose Revolution. He provided the people with the hope that Georgia would turn into a functioning democracy under his rule....Show moreMikheil Saakashvili came to power in Georgia in 2003 after the bloodless Rose Revolution. He provided the people with the hope that Georgia would turn into a functioning democracy under his rule. It turned out that these hopes were set too high. In this thesis I analyse how Saakshvili consolidated authoritarian rule, and how he used the security threats Georgia faced to achieve this.Show less
Morocco and the European Union (EU) have a longstanding relationship. Since its independence, Morocco has signed several treaties and agreements with the EU. When the European neighbourhood policy ...Show moreMorocco and the European Union (EU) have a longstanding relationship. Since its independence, Morocco has signed several treaties and agreements with the EU. When the European neighbourhood policy (ENP) came into force in 2004, the Kingdom gradually became a privileged partner of the EU in various fields. Within the policy, Morocco is nowadays known to be the largest recipient of European Union funds. Thereby, the ENP is often portrayed as an EU tool of democracy and human rights promotion. Yet, major events during the last couple of years in the EU’s neighborhood -the Arab spring and Ukraine crisis- have made the European Union to re-evaluate the policy. Herein, Morocco, a country often displayed by the EU as a successful example of ENP, proves to be an interesting case. The aim of this thesis is to analyse how the EU, through the ENP, has contributed to the development of Morocco’s human rights situation since 2004-present-on.Show less
This thesis examines the relationship between democracy and domestic terrorism, relying on a within-case study of the democratization process of Greece in the 1970s. The central theoretical...Show moreThis thesis examines the relationship between democracy and domestic terrorism, relying on a within-case study of the democratization process of Greece in the 1970s. The central theoretical argument, which is claimed by Chenoweth (2007) is that terrorism occurs so often in democracies because of a competitive logic that drives interest groups to compete with one another using violence. This thesis attempted to strengthen this so-called 'theory of the competitive logic' by further specifying the exact causal mechanism by means of a case study. Overall, the analysis disconfirms and thereby challenges the hypothesized causal mechanisms. A main finding is that Greece's democratization process did result in outburst of domestic terrorist activity, but did not result in an outburst of social mobilization in general. The large corrupt and clientelist overbearing Greek state, combined with the omnipresence of a few strong political parties immediately halted the ‘political energies’ that naturally arose after the fall of the Greek junta. Based on this finding, this thesis claims that, at least in the Greek case, not democracy's commitment to pluralism, but rather a lack of pluralism led to the proliferation of domestic terrorism. Further qualitative research should be done to assess whether Greece is an exceptional case or whether the theory is supported in other cases that experienced democratic transitions in the 1970s, such as Portugal and Spain.Show less
Research master thesis | Political Science and Public Administration (research) (MSc)
open access
2017-08-01T00:00:00Z
Since the proliferation of democratizing countries in Africa, ethnic conflict has also increased. One of the explanations for this phenomenon is that ethnicity become politicized when democratic...Show moreSince the proliferation of democratizing countries in Africa, ethnic conflict has also increased. One of the explanations for this phenomenon is that ethnicity become politicized when democratic institutions are installed, and ethnic cleavages are widened, creating more conflict. In order to temper conflict and stabilize the democratization process it is sometimes needed to use undemocratic tools, such as party bans. While sometimes banning an ethnic party leads to less conflict, sometimes it also leads to more. This thesis will explain how a party ban will decrease conflict when it is based on old, existing law or regulation and accompanied by other institutional arrangements giving incentives for inter-ethnic cooperation and promote cross-cutting cleavages. Two cases of party bans in Mauritania and two cases in Nigeria are used to explain the mechanism of the causal effect between party ban and conflict level.Show less
Research master thesis | Middle Eastern Studies (research) (MA)
closed access
In 2011 an unprecedented wave of protests erupted from Tunisia and soon spread throughout the Arab World. While the initial euphoria was backed by the revolutions in Tunis and Cairo, the course of...Show moreIn 2011 an unprecedented wave of protests erupted from Tunisia and soon spread throughout the Arab World. While the initial euphoria was backed by the revolutions in Tunis and Cairo, the course of events in Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and ultimately Syria began to highlight that a romantic view of revolutions seems out of place. The two kingdoms of Jordan and Morocco have also witnessed significant protests in 2011 especially. However, these did not lead to a revolution – in fact, this was not their goal. The vast majority of those rallying in the streets demanded reforms of Jordan's and Morocco's political institutions, including the parliament, the electoral law and the constitution. This development, combined with the resilience of the Gulf monarchies (with Bahrain as a critical case), has once again brought the monarchy debate back into the limelight. The major underlying question here is does monarchy matter? Facing protests, both Abdullah II and Muhammad VI responded by reforming institutions. In Jordan, the constitution was amended and elections were held. In Morocco, the people could decide on a new constitution by means of a referendum and early elections were held. While ostensibly giving in to the demands of the protesters, these changes did not challenge the status quo but left Abdullah II and Muhammad VI with their almost omnipotent power. From a theoretical perspective this seems particularly interesting. Different approaches, stressing the impact of rentierism, foreign support or family participation, have attempted to explain the survival of monarchies in the Arab World over the past decades. The euphoria of the 'third wave of democratization' (Huntington) and the 'end of history' (Fukuyama) then transcended into scholarly publications during the 1990s, fostering the idea of institutions, once in place, contributing to a gradual process of democratization. During the second half of the 2000s scholars then began to realize that such effects failed to materialize in many cases. In fact, incumbents seemed to have employed democratic rhetoric and (re-)installed parliaments as well as elections while at the same time limiting their power and impact. In Jordan and Morocco these institutions also included another crucial function to Abdullah II and Muhammad VI respectively: they provided an intermediary level between king and people that can be criticized. In order to underpin this analysis, several primary sources for selected key dates since 2011 were taken into account besides the secondary literature. For Jordan, speeches of Abdullah II were considered as well as the text of the constitution, seeing that the latter was subject to change in 2011. Moreover, the coverage of the pro-monarchy newspaper Al-Dustour, the independent Ammon News and the country's main political opposition, the Islamic Action Front IAF, was analyzed. In a similar fashion, the statements of Muhammad VI and the kingdom's constitution were looked at for Morocco. Furthermore, the pro-monarchy newspaper Al-Sabah and the independent Al-Masa' were part of the analysis as well as Morocco's Islamist political opposition party, the Parti de la Justice et du Développement PJD, and the 20 February Movement, a youth group that was founded in early 2011. As the analysis suggests, the discourse about changes in the political system that erupted again in 2011 was almost entirely directed at reforming political institutions. Across the board official statements, pro-monarchy newspapers, but also independent and oppositional groups, made use of a technical language that focused on reforming the parliament, the electoral law or the constitution. These actors also approved the changes made respectively, seeing a solution and a step forward in them. Here, only little demands for a continued reform were raised. All these actors seemed to operate within the boundaries defined by the palace. The example of the 20 February Movement in Morocco stressed how deviating from this public reform discourse can result in selective repression and crackdown. The monarchies Jordan and Morocco have dodged the Arab Spring by allowing and engaging in institutional reforms. Although constitutions were amended or changed and elections were held the power balance has not changed. Accordingly, these institutions have helped Abdullah II and Muhammad VI to maintain their hold onto power rather than lowering it. Such an understanding of political institutions challenges the idea of them ultimately bringing about democratic change. Moreover, with regards to the monarchy debate the findings suggest that such a political setup, in which institutions serve as intermediary between king and people, allows the kings to remain seemingly distant from daily politics. It appears more difficult for presidents or prime minister, as heads of states in republics, to act in a similar fashion as they are by definition presiding the government.Show less
Militaries have played significant roles in the transition from authoritarian regimes to more democratic political systems. Most of these transitions took place during the seventies and eighties in...Show moreMilitaries have played significant roles in the transition from authoritarian regimes to more democratic political systems. Most of these transitions took place during the seventies and eighties in South Europe and Latin America. They often started with cracks within the ruling party, which ultimately led to a gradual transition towards the installation of another regime and in most cases to some form of democratization. Based on those empirical examples a few key indicators predicting the behaviour of a military in transitions can be distinguished. An institutionalised military, which is not directly involved in the administration apparatus and which position has been backed by a legal framework have been found willing to shape the transition period to a more democratic system. During the transition the civilian authorities should guarantee the military certain prerogatives in order to keep it satisfied. An end of the transition period is reached when an effective and strong civilian government is installed which is able to execute civilian oversight over the military. The recent popular uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East were not gradual and caused an abrupt regime change in several Arab countries. Only in Egypt the military took a leading role in the transition. This thesis shows that also in the case of Egypt the nature of the military as an institutionalized military, not directly involved in the day to day governing, made it very resistant to any form of democratization. In the three proposed constitutions since the 25 January revolution the military has demanded and granted itself extensive prerogatives and annulled any form of civilian oversight. This will make it very difficult for any future civilian leader to execute civilian oversight over the Egyptian military.Show less
This thesis aims to explain diverging democratic transitions in two Post-Communist states. The degree and manner of party system institutionalization and party regulation is presuppossed to have a...Show moreThis thesis aims to explain diverging democratic transitions in two Post-Communist states. The degree and manner of party system institutionalization and party regulation is presuppossed to have a major impact on both democratization as the way party democracy is functioning. The study uses a time-series method of analysis to identify changes in party system regulation and links these changes to the stability of a party system such as electoral volatility and party strength. By doing so, this thesis delivers a valuable insight in the pivotal role party system institutionalization plays in democratization and the stabilization of young party systems.Show less
Research master thesis | Political Science and Public Administration (research) (MSc)
open access
Since the end of the 1990s, the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been increasingly divided over the organization’s longcherished code of conduct (known as...Show moreSince the end of the 1990s, the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been increasingly divided over the organization’s longcherished code of conduct (known as the ASEAN-Way). For thirty years, a strict policy of respect for each other’s sovereignty, non-interference in domestic affairs of other member states and decision making by consensus characterized the organization. As of late however, a number of member states have been challenging and defying these rules, which are widely perceived to be of primary importance for the organization’s functioning. This thesis argues that a key determinant in explaining the changing ASEAN policies of a number of member states is alteration in, and a strong discrepancy between, the stability of the various ruling regimes of the ASEAN member states. These alterations in regime stability are strongly related to changes in the political legitimacy of a regime. This theory is tested by first examining developments in the regime stability of four ASEAN member states: Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam. Subsequently the policies of these states towards ASEAN’s pariah member Myanmar are analyzed – functioning as a proxy for state behavior with regard to the larger ASEAN-Way issue – in order to assess whether expected behavior on the basis of a state’s regime stability aligns with member state attempts to alter ASEAN’s status quo.Show less
Recent studies in political demography have concluded that young adults, when overrepresented in a country's population, form an obstacle to democracy. After performing linear regressions on a new...Show moreRecent studies in political demography have concluded that young adults, when overrepresented in a country's population, form an obstacle to democracy. After performing linear regressions on a new global database using data from Polity IV, UNPD, and IIASA/VID, it is demonstrated that the role of young adults cannot unanimously be dismissed as obstructive in the democratization process. Instead, a new variable indicating the percentage of a country’s population that is both young and highly educated is introduced. This variable is proved to offer stable predictions on that country's level of democracy across time and space.Show less
Aung San Suu Kyi is a symbolic and cosmopolitan norm entrepreneur, which has been promoting democracy in Burma from 1988. This status made her popular among the Burmese and appealed to the United...Show moreAung San Suu Kyi is a symbolic and cosmopolitan norm entrepreneur, which has been promoting democracy in Burma from 1988. This status made her popular among the Burmese and appealed to the United States. Her popularity became apparent when Aung San Suu Kyi's party won the elections in 1990. However, despite this victory, she was unable to start the process of democratization until 2010. This thesis will argue that this was the result of the historical and culturale context which in 1990 influenced the military regime in such a way that the elite perceived the promotion for democracy as a threat to their political power and reduced the openness and responsiveness to the democratic norm of the political opportunity structures. In 2010 the historical context changed, as a result of the increased Chinese influence, which became uncomfortable for the Burmese regime. In order to remain in power, they realized that they had to find a new ally to support their military regime. This ally was found in the United States, but their support came at a prize; the regime had to democratize. Due to the cultural context which had remained the same, the regime only defected to the idea of democracy, instead of changing its attitude towards the democratic norm. Subsequently, contested elections were organized of which the regime acknowledged the results and consequently this led to the start of the process of democratization.Show less
