The rationale behind economic voting is simple: the citizen votes for the government if the economy is doing all right; otherwise, the vote is against (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier 2000). However,...Show moreThe rationale behind economic voting is simple: the citizen votes for the government if the economy is doing all right; otherwise, the vote is against (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier 2000). However, various studies have found cross-country and across-time variation regarding the intensity of economic voting (e.g., Paldam 1991; Anderson 1995; Duch and Stevenson 2008), leading an increasing number of scholars to discuss and test potential moderators of the economic vote equation (e.g., Anderson 2000; Duch and Stevenson 2008). Nonetheless, only a few authors have regarded the characteristics of the alternative to the underperforming incumbent, the opposition, as potential moderating factors (Anderson 2000; Maeda 2009; Ferrer 2023). Therefore, the goal of this thesis is to understand how the configuration of the parliamentary opposition, regarding its fragmentation and polarization, impacts its viability as an alternative and, consequently, the intensity of economic voting. Using data from 208 elections that took place in 29 European democracies between 1989 and 2021, I found that a more fragmented opposition actually increases the intensity of economic voting. However, I did not reach any statistically significant conclusions regarding the effect of the polarization of the opposition on the intensity of economic voting.Show less
This paper analyzes the impact of various policy subject on the Latin American electoral accountability. Knowing to which factors electoral accountability is prone in the reelection of Latin...Show moreThis paper analyzes the impact of various policy subject on the Latin American electoral accountability. Knowing to which factors electoral accountability is prone in the reelection of Latin American incumbents is relevant to the incumbents themselves at first. According to the democratic dividend theory, incumbents could increase their likelihood of securing its next term by providing certain policy merits to the population. Moreover, for scientific reasons, it could explain why some incumbents are reelected and others are not. Furthermore, it allows to better evaluate and analyze previous and upcoming elections in Latin America. First, a multi-level regression analysis is conducted concerning the effect of various factors on the incumbent’s reelection. Based on this research, GDP growth and corruption have significant effects on the reelection chances of incumbents. These results are applied to Brazil’s 2022 Presidential elections. The analysis is conducted with semi-structured interviews with experts in the field. This analysis highlights the importance of economic voting as well. Moreover, it mentions influential factors, such as healthcare policy, evangelic voting, and international economic influences. Altogether, this analysis emphasizes the importance of economic voting and economic electoral accountability in Latin American countries. This allows researchers to further analyze the Latin American elections through a better scope.Show less
