This paper moves beyond the democratization paradigm in studying post-communist political developments, and investigates how competitive elections affected ethnonationalism in Ukraine’s ethnically...Show moreThis paper moves beyond the democratization paradigm in studying post-communist political developments, and investigates how competitive elections affected ethnonationalism in Ukraine’s ethnically plural society (1991-2022). Based on Rabushka’s and Shepsle’s (1972) ethnic outbidding model, this paper hypothesizes that competitive elections incentivize candidates to use ethnonationalist appeals to maximally mobilize electoral support, which fuels centrifugal competition and ethnic polarization. This study has found that ethnolinguistic affiliations did structure electoral behavior in Ukraine. Most presidential election campaigns confirmed expectations based on the outbidding model. However, a comparison of the 2010 and 2004 elections challenges the outbidding theory, as the 2010 election campaign featured centripetal competition for the median voter. The existence of median voters amidst politicized ethnic divisions contradicts the outbidding model’s core assumption that middle-grounds between ethnic groups do not exist. Many voters, particularly among Russian-speaking ethnic Ukrainians, did find themselves in-between two ethnic groups, making centripetal competition not only possible, but even a rational election-winning strategy. Furthermore, contrarily to the rational-choice-based outbidding theory, political elites were able to learn from prior mistakes and became better at co-existing peacefully over time, despite fierce electoral competition. However, without candidates’ commitment not to let competition escalate, centrifugal competition is always around the corner.Show less
