This paper contributes to the growing body of research on opposition fragmentation by asking whether the opposition’s format influences its publicly perceived performance and electoral success, as...Show moreThis paper contributes to the growing body of research on opposition fragmentation by asking whether the opposition’s format influences its publicly perceived performance and electoral success, as well as people’s satisfaction with democracy. Using regression analyses, I show that both the polarisation and the fragmentation of the opposition are associated with a decline in people’s attitudes toward them. Furthermore, an increase in opposition polarisation is associated with a decline in citizens’ satisfaction with democracy, while the fragmentation of the opposition shows the opposite effect. Lastly, the opposition’s polarisation and fragmentation show no significant effect on the governing parties’ vote share. Overall, the results of this paper suggest that investigating the format of the opposition gives insides not only into the public perception of opposition parties but also into citizens’ satisfaction with democracy.Show less
The rationale behind economic voting is simple: the citizen votes for the government if the economy is doing all right; otherwise, the vote is against (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier 2000). However,...Show moreThe rationale behind economic voting is simple: the citizen votes for the government if the economy is doing all right; otherwise, the vote is against (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier 2000). However, various studies have found cross-country and across-time variation regarding the intensity of economic voting (e.g., Paldam 1991; Anderson 1995; Duch and Stevenson 2008), leading an increasing number of scholars to discuss and test potential moderators of the economic vote equation (e.g., Anderson 2000; Duch and Stevenson 2008). Nonetheless, only a few authors have regarded the characteristics of the alternative to the underperforming incumbent, the opposition, as potential moderating factors (Anderson 2000; Maeda 2009; Ferrer 2023). Therefore, the goal of this thesis is to understand how the configuration of the parliamentary opposition, regarding its fragmentation and polarization, impacts its viability as an alternative and, consequently, the intensity of economic voting. Using data from 208 elections that took place in 29 European democracies between 1989 and 2021, I found that a more fragmented opposition actually increases the intensity of economic voting. However, I did not reach any statistically significant conclusions regarding the effect of the polarization of the opposition on the intensity of economic voting.Show less
Advanced master thesis | Political Science (Advanced Master)
open access
Why do some self-determination movements manage to achieve autonomy, while others fail to extract such salient concessions during peace negotiations? Although one would expect supporters of the...Show moreWhy do some self-determination movements manage to achieve autonomy, while others fail to extract such salient concessions during peace negotiations? Although one would expect supporters of the self-determination movement to unite in their struggle against the incumbent regime, recent literature has demonstrated that they tend to fight each other just as often as they fight the government in their competition for political relevance. Yet, little has been done to explain the effects such infighting has on the peace negotiations. Based on the comparison of the cases of Southern Sudan and Darfur, this study shows that more cohesive movements are able to extract much more salient concessions that address the conflict’s master cleavage and reflect the characteristics of a club good. The findings further suggest that fragmented movements tend to be paid off rather than yielded to by the incumbent government, thus rendering the achievement of peace utterly unattainable. Future research will have to examine whether these findings hold an explanatory power in contexts outside of Sudan.Show less
Advanced master thesis | Political Science (Advanced Master)
open access
Why is it that some separatist movements remain united while others fragment into competing factions? While one would expect supporters of a separatist movement to be united in the struggle against...Show moreWhy is it that some separatist movements remain united while others fragment into competing factions? While one would expect supporters of a separatist movement to be united in the struggle against their common enemy, the state, recent literature has shown that they often spend valuable time and resources on internal rivalries – yet little research has been done to explain this phenomenon. Based on a comparison of the cases of the Armenians in Azerbaijan, the Chechens in Russia, and the Abkhaz in their struggle with Georgia, this thesis shows that the ability of the separatist movement to establish institutions capable of providing effective governance is essential in understanding processes of cohesion and fragmentation. It further illustrates that the strength of the incumbent state as well as the amount of external support a separatist movement receives play into these processes in important ways. Future research will have to show whether these variables hold the same explanatory power in other contexts.Show less
