Using a number of existing datasets, this study seeks to illuminate the relation between states’ institutional configuration – degrees of democracy, militarism, and personalism – their trajectory...Show moreUsing a number of existing datasets, this study seeks to illuminate the relation between states’ institutional configuration – degrees of democracy, militarism, and personalism – their trajectory either toward or away from democratic governance, and their propensity to terminate ongoing conflict against insurgent enemies. The study finds a negative and significant correlation between nonviolent conflict cessation and both democratisation and authoritarian consolidation. Disaggregating the data by regime type reveals that democracies and machine-type autocracies are less susceptible to this effect than either military and personalist regimes. Finally, further inspection of the data reveals that both regime type and a number of other variables act as proxies for regimes’ internal stability and the absence of intra-elite rivalry. The finding, consistent with much of the existing literature, is that intra-elite rivalry drives regimes and leaders to continue fighting, and diminishes the probability of negotiated settlement.Show less
