Democracy in Latin America is under extraordinary strain because of polarization. This thesis aims to investigate the drivers of party polarization, focusing on electoral volatility in 18 Latin...Show moreDemocracy in Latin America is under extraordinary strain because of polarization. This thesis aims to investigate the drivers of party polarization, focusing on electoral volatility in 18 Latin American countries from 1993-2018. Extant studies suggest that volatility influences polarization by incentivizing parties to adopt polarizing strategies to secure electoral survival. However, these studies suffer from methodological and theoretical drawbacks that I seek to overcome. By utilizing the Latin American Electoral Volatility Dataset (LAEVD), this thesis employs a more precise measure of polarization, particularly in assessing elite-driven polarization, while accounting for within-system volatility (votes transferred between existing parties), extra-system volatility (new party vote share), and additional control variables. Moreover, the theoretical underpinnings will be critically assessed and further developed, especially regarding new party entry. My results diverge from previous studies suggesting that Latin American democracies become more polarized as they age due to the entry of new (radical) parties. This reflects the persistent struggle for party systems in the region to institutionalize. As several countries have suffered pernicious consequences of polarization in recent years, avoiding democracy’s demise in Latin America requires sustainable party building to solidify electoral competition and regain citizens’ trust in democratic institutions.Show less
