The aim of this thesis is to examine why was progress in the Transnistrian conflict achieved after 2016 considering that all the previous efforts of internal as well as external actors after the...Show moreThe aim of this thesis is to examine why was progress in the Transnistrian conflict achieved after 2016 considering that all the previous efforts of internal as well as external actors after the ceasefire agreement proved to be unsuccessful. The thesis applies conflict management and mediation theory, which claims that progress in a conflict is possible when a “ripe moment” arises as a result of Mutually Hurting Stalemate (MHS). The “ripe moment” has to be seized either by the parties themselves or by a mediator, with a problem-solving approach being particularly useful to that end. Based on the review of existing academic literature, the author identifies three hypotheses (the “political agency hypothesis”, the “economic hypothesis”, and the “mediation hypothesis”), which offer alternative explanations why the progress was achieved specifically after 2016. The hypotheses are tested using the qualitative method of process tracing. The systematic analysis of the diagnostic evidence reveals that the progress was not achieved due to the new Moldovan and Transnistrian presidents coming to power at the end of 2016. In 2016, the “ripe moment” arose in the Transnistrian conflict as a result of the poor economic performance of both Moldova and Transnistria, which created the situation of MHS. Moreover, the united position of mediators in the 5+2 format combined with the focus on smaller, practical questions, allowed the “ripe moment” to be seized and thus progress was achieved.Show less
