Parallels have been drawn between a catholic marriage and the relationship between the EU and Turkey. Every time the relationship appears to be on the brink of divorce a closer step towards Turkey...Show moreParallels have been drawn between a catholic marriage and the relationship between the EU and Turkey. Every time the relationship appears to be on the brink of divorce a closer step towards Turkey's accession is made. In this sense, the EU-Turkey relationship is in historical institutionalist terms path dependent. The institutionalisation of this relationship has meant that divorce incurs a high cost and is, therefore, unlikely to happen. Theoretical explanations have been given for and against Turkey's accession, but these are unable to explain the fluidity of this relationship. Concentrating on history and how arguments are historically and contextually conditioned, this thesis incorporates a historical institutionalist framework to explain the decision-making by the EU in deepening its path dependent relationship with Turkey in order to aid in understanding EU enlargement and in particular Turkey's EU accession process. Two critical junctures of the periods from 1997-1999 and 2011-2016 will be analysed to reveal the central elements which explain the EU's decision-making. This analysis will examine EU documents concerning Turkish accession such as presidency conclusions, statements of the EU Heads of State or Government and international agreements between Turkey and the EU. In addition, this research will also draw on the already existing academic literature and use statements from the media and from leading figures to reflect on Turkey's accession. Through using a historical institutionalist approach this thesis makes an original contribution in arguing that Europe's enlargement approach has become vulnerable to reverse conditionality, fostering a path dependent relationship. The EU sees Turkey as a strategic ally rather than as an equal partner. Enlargement in the case of Turkey was initially used to incentivise Turkey to cooperate and has, therefore, been the EU's most powerful source of leverage. However, this use of enlargement has made the EU vulnerable to the implementation of reverse conditionality. As soon as accession loses its significance divorce could be immanent unless the couple can find a compromise to settle on a different kind of relationship.Show less
