Combining literature on autocratic stability and regime legitimation, this thesis seeks to explore the dynamics between economic shocks in patron states and a decrease in the political stability of...Show moreCombining literature on autocratic stability and regime legitimation, this thesis seeks to explore the dynamics between economic shocks in patron states and a decrease in the political stability of its client state(s). This research focuses on Russia as the patron state, and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as its client states. It finds that output legitimacy is the primary strategy of legitimation of Central Asian states, and that economic crises in Russia directly impact the stability of the researched states. However, this effect is somewhat alleviated by moderating factors in the case of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.Show less
This thesis asks the question whether dependence on fossil fuels from Russia for domestic energy supply influenced the support for sanctions against Russia of EU member states following the Russian...Show moreThis thesis asks the question whether dependence on fossil fuels from Russia for domestic energy supply influenced the support for sanctions against Russia of EU member states following the Russian annexation of Crimea and activities in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Support for sanctions is measured using data from previous research by Silva II and Selden (2020). Using multiple regression analysis, several other explanatory factors are accounted for, including expected trade change, FDI stock and former membership of the Eastern Bloc. A small, significant, positive relation between fossil fuel dependence and support for sanctions is found. This leads to three main conclusions: First, energy dependence does not seem to negatively influence the support for sanctions against Russia by EU member states. Second, the analysis suggest a positive relation between these variables might exist. Third, the other explanatory factors accounted for each have no significant influence on support for sanctions. In this time when the EU-Russia energy relations are being reconsidered, this sheds an important light on the debate on energy security and interdependence theory in EU-Russia context.Show less
Why is it that states that are best endowed with power resources do not always achieve the outcomes they desire? This phenomenon is what Baldwin (1979) calls the “paradox of unrealized power”. Dahl...Show moreWhy is it that states that are best endowed with power resources do not always achieve the outcomes they desire? This phenomenon is what Baldwin (1979) calls the “paradox of unrealized power”. Dahl (1957) famously defines power as A getting B to do something that B would otherwise not have done. An example of this paradox is the outcome of the battle between the European Union and the Russian Federation over Ukraine. Since 2004 both the EU and Russia have sought closer integration with Ukraine (Wilson and Popescu 2009). In 2014 Ukraine signed an Association Agreement with the EU, while regions in east Ukraine declared independence and Crimea even acceded to Russia (AlJazeera 2014; BBC 2014a; Reuters 2014a; Centrum for Strategic and International Studies 2014). Paradoxically, although the EU in total possesses more power resources than Russia, it was the Kremlin that achieved their desired outcome of closer integration in the east of Ukraine. In the literature on power two major explanations aim to account for such phenomena: A’s faulty power conversion strategies and A’s failed contextual analysis (Baldwin 1979). Yet one crucial element that is absent in the contextual explanation is a theoretical model about what ultimately motivates B to comply. In order to assess whether the combination of the power conversion and the refined contextual explanation accounts for the paradox, the causal process behind the outcomes of the Ukrainian crisis of 2013/2014 is analyzed using process-tracing. The analysis of behavioral motivations suggests that B’s self-identification determines the boundaries within which A can realize its power, and that B’s identity is largely beyond the control of A. The results also indicate that A’s power conversion strategy needs to include tangible means of power to achieve the goal of territorial expansion.Show less
A study on the small state of Estonia and the relationship with its predatory neighbour Russia, as well as the security policy that Estonia implements because of this relationship.
