While the 2014 annexation of Crimea was a complete success for Russia, Russia’s involvement in the Donbas conflict only a month later proved a failure despite the use of similar tactics. Previous...Show moreWhile the 2014 annexation of Crimea was a complete success for Russia, Russia’s involvement in the Donbas conflict only a month later proved a failure despite the use of similar tactics. Previous academic discourse has alluded to these kinds of tactics, here presented as ‘ambiguous warfare’ operations, being implemented in future conflicts. Yet, little attention has been awarded to which factors facilitate successful implementations of ambiguous warfare. The case study presented in this research has set out to determine if the conditions that facilitated ambiguous warfare’s success in Crimea were present in the Donbas. It is additionally explored which differences in the two operations denied Russia a favourable outcome in the Donbas. Results show that four out of six success conditions for ambiguous warfare were not present in the Donbas. Additionally, ambiguous warfare in the Donbas was hindered by ill-suited strategic goals for such operations and insufficient planning. The findings suggest that favorable conditions for ambiguous warfare rarely occur, with the Donbas conflict producing no lasting success for Russia. Yet, states should increase their resilience against ambiguous warfare threats, as such operations may remain appealing options for Russia. This research paper complements the academic understanding of ambiguous warfare.Show less
This thesis sought to explore factors resulting in EU foreign policy reform through Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework. Using the literature on EU foreign policy change and the EU’s sanctions...Show moreThis thesis sought to explore factors resulting in EU foreign policy reform through Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework. Using the literature on EU foreign policy change and the EU’s sanctions policy as a fundamental basis, the expectations were that framing in a particular way would result in EU foreign policy reform, that policy entrepreneurs contributed to EU foreign policy reform, and that think tanks and swings of European mood contributed to EU foreign policy reform. Within this thesis, the imposition of sanctions against Russia represents the policy reform and window of opportunity through which policy reform can be realized. The cases of the annexations of Crimea and four Ukrainian regions were selected. To identify the factors at play, European news outlets, EU policy documents and meeting results, think tank reports and opinion polls have been consulted. The results revealed that policy entrepreneurs within the policy stream were responsible for the imposition of sanctions, despite continuous expression of dissatisfaction and use of the window of opportunity by think tanks. The discoveries within this thesis offer insights into the significant influence of factors found in the Multiple Streams Framework, contributing to existing literature on policymaking and opening avenues for further research.Show less
One year into the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, debates still rage over the Russian motivations for this war. Purely international explanations, found in offensive and defensive realism, emphasise that...Show moreOne year into the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, debates still rage over the Russian motivations for this war. Purely international explanations, found in offensive and defensive realism, emphasise that wars are best understood as a means of states to ensure security among states. I argue that domestic considerations matter by stressing the analytical utility of the selectorate theory of war, which argues that state behaviour is best explained by a leader's desire to stay in power through ensuring loyalty by providing public and private goods. Using a qualitative explanatory case study research design, focusing on a single case: the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is found that before the war, Vladimir Putin was facing a crisis of political survival because his ability to ensure support from the elites he depended on and the wider public was increasingly constrained during his presidency due to a persistently stagnating economy. The war strengthened Putin’s political survival because newly acquired territories provide new sources of revenue for Russia’s elites. For the wider public, this study strongly suggests that Putin was aiming for a rally round the flag effect to distract the public at home from deteriorating circumstances and temporarily reduce the demand for public goods. In addition, the war legitimised greater repression, which signals a high cost of expressing discontent with Putin which deters future opposition and serves as a means to purge the elites and the broader public from disloyalty. Understanding these domestic factors that are negated by the purely international explanations of war is crucial for understanding the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. This thesis provides a novel contribution to the literature explaining Russia’s foreign policies by using the selectorate theory of war, a theory that has not been used systematically for explaining Russia’s foreign policy.Show less
Although the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is described as a universal norm, it has long been contested by postcolonial and decolonial scholarship. Considering the Russian invasion and occupation...Show moreAlthough the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) is described as a universal norm, it has long been contested by postcolonial and decolonial scholarship. Considering the Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine, the conflict provides a rare possibility to compare the use of R2P between states in the Global North and the Global South. This Master thesis consequently conducts a comparative critical discourse analysis between discourse of the UNGA and UNSC on R2P in the cases of the Syrian Civil War and the Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine. The analysis finds that the UN discourse reflects both colonial and decolonial dynamics. It has institutionalized various narratives to decolonize its approach, whilst still engaging in Eurocentric discourse. Moreover, the results indicate that the geopolitical positioning of both Ukraine and Syria have played a role in the UN’s R2P approach to each case.Show less
State-sponsored cyberattacks are increasing. Although most attacks have a motivation like espionage, theft, and sabotage, there are also attacks motived to disrupt or interfere with a country to...Show moreState-sponsored cyberattacks are increasing. Although most attacks have a motivation like espionage, theft, and sabotage, there are also attacks motived to disrupt or interfere with a country to negatively affect public support for the incumbent government. Even though there are plenty of examples of cyberattacks with these motivations, the actual effect of public support towards the government has not been analyzed yet. According to the rally-around-the- flag theory, sudden, international and short events such as state-sponsored cyberattack should increase public support for government instead of decrease, as the aim of the attack. In this paper, a regression discontinuity analysis is conducted on the 2007 Estonian cyberattacks. Thereby, the satisfaction levels with the government and democracy are measured before and during the attack. The effect of cyberattacks on both the satisfaction with the government as well as democracy are non-significant. In other words, state-sponsored cyberattacks do not affect the population’s support for government. This is remarkable because it directly contradicts the purpose of the attack. It raises the follow-up question to what extent these types of attacks are effective.Show less
Combining literature on autocratic stability and regime legitimation, this thesis seeks to explore the dynamics between economic shocks in patron states and a decrease in the political stability of...Show moreCombining literature on autocratic stability and regime legitimation, this thesis seeks to explore the dynamics between economic shocks in patron states and a decrease in the political stability of its client state(s). This research focuses on Russia as the patron state, and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as its client states. It finds that output legitimacy is the primary strategy of legitimation of Central Asian states, and that economic crises in Russia directly impact the stability of the researched states. However, this effect is somewhat alleviated by moderating factors in the case of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.Show less
On December 17, 2021, the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation published two draft treaties that demand various security guarantees from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the...Show moreOn December 17, 2021, the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation published two draft treaties that demand various security guarantees from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States. This meant that Russia wanted to reform the post-Cold War European security architecture. Upon the rejection of these proposals, Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Despite extensive scholarly research on Russia’s stance regarding European security, the debate revolves around realist and neo-realist perspectives which are not sufficient in comprehending the fundamental reasons behind why Russia wants to do so. For that reason, this thesis introduces a new theoretical approach called the ontological security theory. By adopting a post-structuralist methodology and discourse analysis, it argues that Moscow feels ontologically insecure due to the divergence between Moscow’s identity and its role in the post-Cold War European security architecture. Therefore, Russia sets its foreign policy for the “recognition” of its Self by the West, which is necessary for ontological security. The findings of this thesis also reveal the significance of identity in international relations and politics, as it brings alternative explanations to arguments put forward by grand IR theories regarding a phenomenon.Show less
In May 2017, during an election rally in Munich, Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel said something that would create international headlines: ‘The times in which we could completely depend on...Show moreIn May 2017, during an election rally in Munich, Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel said something that would create international headlines: ‘The times in which we could completely depend on others are on the way out. […] We Europeans have to take our destiny into our own hands’. The developments that followed were unique for the EU. The EU’s limited military structures already in place were being expanded, became more autonomous, and new mechanisms were created to foster more defence cooperation among the member states. Closer defence cooperation within the EU is generally being ascribed to geopolitical pressures, so how do the narratives of the US and Russia influence EU member states’ sense of urgency to cooperate in the field of defence? I combine the constructivist idea of perception with the realist idea of necessity and look at threat perception and the perceived necessity to cooperate further in defence. By analysing the narratives of the German and French political elite regarding EU defence cooperation in 2018, I come to the conclusion that while the US narratives significantly increase EU member states’ sense of urgency to cooperate in the field of defence, Russia’s narratives do not have such a significant impact.Show less
This thesis asks the question whether dependence on fossil fuels from Russia for domestic energy supply influenced the support for sanctions against Russia of EU member states following the Russian...Show moreThis thesis asks the question whether dependence on fossil fuels from Russia for domestic energy supply influenced the support for sanctions against Russia of EU member states following the Russian annexation of Crimea and activities in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Support for sanctions is measured using data from previous research by Silva II and Selden (2020). Using multiple regression analysis, several other explanatory factors are accounted for, including expected trade change, FDI stock and former membership of the Eastern Bloc. A small, significant, positive relation between fossil fuel dependence and support for sanctions is found. This leads to three main conclusions: First, energy dependence does not seem to negatively influence the support for sanctions against Russia by EU member states. Second, the analysis suggest a positive relation between these variables might exist. Third, the other explanatory factors accounted for each have no significant influence on support for sanctions. In this time when the EU-Russia energy relations are being reconsidered, this sheds an important light on the debate on energy security and interdependence theory in EU-Russia context.Show less
Hybrid warfare is considered to be a vague term and its usefulness as an analytical tool is doubted by academics. This thesis sets out to test the analytical usefulness of the hybrid warfare term...Show moreHybrid warfare is considered to be a vague term and its usefulness as an analytical tool is doubted by academics. This thesis sets out to test the analytical usefulness of the hybrid warfare term when incorporated by NATO. Through discourse analysis, it was found that the notion of hybrid warfare and its associated terms are employed and defined inconsistently across various NATO publications. This indicates that hybrid warfare may indeed be a weak analytical tool to use. Through a thematic analysis, it was found that there is a broad consensus on the way in which hybrid warfare is defined by academics and NATO officials, which might indicate that there is some practical use for employing the term.Show less
This thesis aims to answer the question: “How can states balance their peace-justice dilemma’s in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?” It will take a qualitative case study approach using primary and...Show moreThis thesis aims to answer the question: “How can states balance their peace-justice dilemma’s in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?” It will take a qualitative case study approach using primary and secondary data and analyze how various levels of state intervention impact the peacejustice dilemmas states face when intervening in a conflict. This thesis will provide a comprehensive review of the existing literature on the topic and create a theoretical framework from which to analyze the case. This research finds that although various levels of state intervention can have a certain degree of impact on a state’s peace-justice dilemma, there is no “perfect” solution to the dilemma as it remains present to some degree.Show less
Since April 2019, Russia has conducted passportization in the Donbas region (Atland, 2020). Although this form of mass extraterritorial naturalization is not illegal, it is considered troublesome...Show moreSince April 2019, Russia has conducted passportization in the Donbas region (Atland, 2020). Although this form of mass extraterritorial naturalization is not illegal, it is considered troublesome by the international community (Natoli, 2010; Peters, 2010; Traunmüller, 2013). Moreover, Eastern Ukraine is not the first conflicted area confronted with this practice (Hoffman & Chochia, 2018; Natoli, 2010). Since passportization is regarded as a potential security threat (Burkhardt et al., 2022b; Traunmüller, 2013), this thesis explores how Ukraine framed Russia’s passportization in the Donbas region between the 24th of April 2019 and the 23rd of February 2022. In particular, the analysis leans on securitization theory. A total of twenty-one official statements, speeches, and interviews by government representatives and President Zelenskyy were analyzed. Findings suggest that, indeed, the passportization is predominantly framed as a security threat.Show less
Russian actions in the Russo-Ukrainian War have been widely interpreted as a holistically coordinated, integrative approach to war – dubbed hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare has, in recent decades,...Show moreRussian actions in the Russo-Ukrainian War have been widely interpreted as a holistically coordinated, integrative approach to war – dubbed hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare has, in recent decades, been accepted as a strategic concept into the doctrinal documents of key Western military actors, including NATO and the EU. This paper argues that analysts misinterpret Russia’s operational, context-dependent opportunism in Ukraine as a holistic strategic method. So, in order to examine the extent to which Russian actions in Ukraine are actually strategic and whether the contemporary hybrid warfare concept improves or stifles that understanding, this paper examines the following: to what extent is Russian so-called hybrid warfare in Ukraine strategic? Three key events in the Russo-Ukrainian War are analysed using classical theory on strategy as a guiding framework, making use of a thematic case study analysis. It is shown that Russian actions in Ukraine are classically strategic to a highly limited extent because (1) battle is not always central and (2) Russian political coordination is either absent or opportunistic. Russian actions in Ukraine thus do not indicate a holistically integrated strategic method – which Western observers have eagerly dubbed hybrid warfare. Rather, the reality shows a method of operational opportunism enabled by a permissive political and battlespace-context. Hybrid warfare therefore does not merit adoption as a strategic concept, because it is not strategic. Using hybrid warfare as a strategic concept thus dilutes what we perceive to be strategic – and what we perceive to be warfare – proving the importance of testing new concepts against classical wisdom.Show less
