While the 2014 annexation of Crimea was a complete success for Russia, Russia’s involvement in the Donbas conflict only a month later proved a failure despite the use of similar tactics. Previous...Show moreWhile the 2014 annexation of Crimea was a complete success for Russia, Russia’s involvement in the Donbas conflict only a month later proved a failure despite the use of similar tactics. Previous academic discourse has alluded to these kinds of tactics, here presented as ‘ambiguous warfare’ operations, being implemented in future conflicts. Yet, little attention has been awarded to which factors facilitate successful implementations of ambiguous warfare. The case study presented in this research has set out to determine if the conditions that facilitated ambiguous warfare’s success in Crimea were present in the Donbas. It is additionally explored which differences in the two operations denied Russia a favourable outcome in the Donbas. Results show that four out of six success conditions for ambiguous warfare were not present in the Donbas. Additionally, ambiguous warfare in the Donbas was hindered by ill-suited strategic goals for such operations and insufficient planning. The findings suggest that favorable conditions for ambiguous warfare rarely occur, with the Donbas conflict producing no lasting success for Russia. Yet, states should increase their resilience against ambiguous warfare threats, as such operations may remain appealing options for Russia. This research paper complements the academic understanding of ambiguous warfare.Show less
This thesis sought to explore factors resulting in EU foreign policy reform through Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework. Using the literature on EU foreign policy change and the EU’s sanctions...Show moreThis thesis sought to explore factors resulting in EU foreign policy reform through Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework. Using the literature on EU foreign policy change and the EU’s sanctions policy as a fundamental basis, the expectations were that framing in a particular way would result in EU foreign policy reform, that policy entrepreneurs contributed to EU foreign policy reform, and that think tanks and swings of European mood contributed to EU foreign policy reform. Within this thesis, the imposition of sanctions against Russia represents the policy reform and window of opportunity through which policy reform can be realized. The cases of the annexations of Crimea and four Ukrainian regions were selected. To identify the factors at play, European news outlets, EU policy documents and meeting results, think tank reports and opinion polls have been consulted. The results revealed that policy entrepreneurs within the policy stream were responsible for the imposition of sanctions, despite continuous expression of dissatisfaction and use of the window of opportunity by think tanks. The discoveries within this thesis offer insights into the significant influence of factors found in the Multiple Streams Framework, contributing to existing literature on policymaking and opening avenues for further research.Show less
One year into the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, debates still rage over the Russian motivations for this war. Purely international explanations, found in offensive and defensive realism, emphasise that...Show moreOne year into the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, debates still rage over the Russian motivations for this war. Purely international explanations, found in offensive and defensive realism, emphasise that wars are best understood as a means of states to ensure security among states. I argue that domestic considerations matter by stressing the analytical utility of the selectorate theory of war, which argues that state behaviour is best explained by a leader's desire to stay in power through ensuring loyalty by providing public and private goods. Using a qualitative explanatory case study research design, focusing on a single case: the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is found that before the war, Vladimir Putin was facing a crisis of political survival because his ability to ensure support from the elites he depended on and the wider public was increasingly constrained during his presidency due to a persistently stagnating economy. The war strengthened Putin’s political survival because newly acquired territories provide new sources of revenue for Russia’s elites. For the wider public, this study strongly suggests that Putin was aiming for a rally round the flag effect to distract the public at home from deteriorating circumstances and temporarily reduce the demand for public goods. In addition, the war legitimised greater repression, which signals a high cost of expressing discontent with Putin which deters future opposition and serves as a means to purge the elites and the broader public from disloyalty. Understanding these domestic factors that are negated by the purely international explanations of war is crucial for understanding the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. This thesis provides a novel contribution to the literature explaining Russia’s foreign policies by using the selectorate theory of war, a theory that has not been used systematically for explaining Russia’s foreign policy.Show less
State-sponsored cyberattacks are increasing. Although most attacks have a motivation like espionage, theft, and sabotage, there are also attacks motived to disrupt or interfere with a country to...Show moreState-sponsored cyberattacks are increasing. Although most attacks have a motivation like espionage, theft, and sabotage, there are also attacks motived to disrupt or interfere with a country to negatively affect public support for the incumbent government. Even though there are plenty of examples of cyberattacks with these motivations, the actual effect of public support towards the government has not been analyzed yet. According to the rally-around-the- flag theory, sudden, international and short events such as state-sponsored cyberattack should increase public support for government instead of decrease, as the aim of the attack. In this paper, a regression discontinuity analysis is conducted on the 2007 Estonian cyberattacks. Thereby, the satisfaction levels with the government and democracy are measured before and during the attack. The effect of cyberattacks on both the satisfaction with the government as well as democracy are non-significant. In other words, state-sponsored cyberattacks do not affect the population’s support for government. This is remarkable because it directly contradicts the purpose of the attack. It raises the follow-up question to what extent these types of attacks are effective.Show less
Hybrid warfare is considered to be a vague term and its usefulness as an analytical tool is doubted by academics. This thesis sets out to test the analytical usefulness of the hybrid warfare term...Show moreHybrid warfare is considered to be a vague term and its usefulness as an analytical tool is doubted by academics. This thesis sets out to test the analytical usefulness of the hybrid warfare term when incorporated by NATO. Through discourse analysis, it was found that the notion of hybrid warfare and its associated terms are employed and defined inconsistently across various NATO publications. This indicates that hybrid warfare may indeed be a weak analytical tool to use. Through a thematic analysis, it was found that there is a broad consensus on the way in which hybrid warfare is defined by academics and NATO officials, which might indicate that there is some practical use for employing the term.Show less
This thesis aims to answer the question: “How can states balance their peace-justice dilemma’s in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?” It will take a qualitative case study approach using primary and...Show moreThis thesis aims to answer the question: “How can states balance their peace-justice dilemma’s in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?” It will take a qualitative case study approach using primary and secondary data and analyze how various levels of state intervention impact the peacejustice dilemmas states face when intervening in a conflict. This thesis will provide a comprehensive review of the existing literature on the topic and create a theoretical framework from which to analyze the case. This research finds that although various levels of state intervention can have a certain degree of impact on a state’s peace-justice dilemma, there is no “perfect” solution to the dilemma as it remains present to some degree.Show less
Since April 2019, Russia has conducted passportization in the Donbas region (Atland, 2020). Although this form of mass extraterritorial naturalization is not illegal, it is considered troublesome...Show moreSince April 2019, Russia has conducted passportization in the Donbas region (Atland, 2020). Although this form of mass extraterritorial naturalization is not illegal, it is considered troublesome by the international community (Natoli, 2010; Peters, 2010; Traunmüller, 2013). Moreover, Eastern Ukraine is not the first conflicted area confronted with this practice (Hoffman & Chochia, 2018; Natoli, 2010). Since passportization is regarded as a potential security threat (Burkhardt et al., 2022b; Traunmüller, 2013), this thesis explores how Ukraine framed Russia’s passportization in the Donbas region between the 24th of April 2019 and the 23rd of February 2022. In particular, the analysis leans on securitization theory. A total of twenty-one official statements, speeches, and interviews by government representatives and President Zelenskyy were analyzed. Findings suggest that, indeed, the passportization is predominantly framed as a security threat.Show less
Russian actions in the Russo-Ukrainian War have been widely interpreted as a holistically coordinated, integrative approach to war – dubbed hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare has, in recent decades,...Show moreRussian actions in the Russo-Ukrainian War have been widely interpreted as a holistically coordinated, integrative approach to war – dubbed hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare has, in recent decades, been accepted as a strategic concept into the doctrinal documents of key Western military actors, including NATO and the EU. This paper argues that analysts misinterpret Russia’s operational, context-dependent opportunism in Ukraine as a holistic strategic method. So, in order to examine the extent to which Russian actions in Ukraine are actually strategic and whether the contemporary hybrid warfare concept improves or stifles that understanding, this paper examines the following: to what extent is Russian so-called hybrid warfare in Ukraine strategic? Three key events in the Russo-Ukrainian War are analysed using classical theory on strategy as a guiding framework, making use of a thematic case study analysis. It is shown that Russian actions in Ukraine are classically strategic to a highly limited extent because (1) battle is not always central and (2) Russian political coordination is either absent or opportunistic. Russian actions in Ukraine thus do not indicate a holistically integrated strategic method – which Western observers have eagerly dubbed hybrid warfare. Rather, the reality shows a method of operational opportunism enabled by a permissive political and battlespace-context. Hybrid warfare therefore does not merit adoption as a strategic concept, because it is not strategic. Using hybrid warfare as a strategic concept thus dilutes what we perceive to be strategic – and what we perceive to be warfare – proving the importance of testing new concepts against classical wisdom.Show less
This thesis examines to what extent the securitisation model applies to the attempted OPCW hack, the Bundestag hack, and the SolarWinds operation concerning policy implementations. The...Show moreThis thesis examines to what extent the securitisation model applies to the attempted OPCW hack, the Bundestag hack, and the SolarWinds operation concerning policy implementations. The securitisation model analyses the securitising actor’s response to the threat. Further, it analyses whether the securitisation act enabled the securitising actor to implement drastic measures. This thesis uses the case study method and selected the cases with a shared perpetrator and objective. For the findings, this thesis concluded the following for the three cases. The Dutch government completed the securitisation act for the attempted OPCW hack but did not implement drastic policies. For the Bundestag hack, the Federal Government did not complete the securitisation act but did implement drastic measures. The United States completed the securitisation act and implemented drastic policies. Thus, the extent to which the securitisation model explains the response of the victim state differs in each case.Show less
The already tense relationship between the EU and Russia has resulted in a geopolitical power race in cyberspace. Also, the development of the EU cyber diplomacy toolbox in 2017 already resulted in...Show moreThe already tense relationship between the EU and Russia has resulted in a geopolitical power race in cyberspace. Also, the development of the EU cyber diplomacy toolbox in 2017 already resulted in economic and diplomatic sanctions being imposed on Russia, further intensifying the relationship between two central powers in cyberspace and hinting at the use of a deterrence strategy by the EU. To further gain knowledge about the impact of the EU cyber diplomacy toolbox on Russia, this research aims to identify how the toolbox intents to functions against Russia. By doing so, the key characteristics of the deterrence strategy will function as the theoretical framework in this research, resulting into an overview of the key characteristics of the deterrence strategy. Furthermore, the purposes of the installation of the toolbox will be analysed. Likewise, with the use of case studies, the actual effects of the toolbox on Russia will be outlined to portray that the EU cyber diplomacy does intent to function as a method of a deterrence strategy against Russia.Show less
The term hybrid warfare has often been associated with Russian operations in Ukraine, yet academia is in disagreement on the relevance and viability of this term. This thesis puts Russian hybrid...Show moreThe term hybrid warfare has often been associated with Russian operations in Ukraine, yet academia is in disagreement on the relevance and viability of this term. This thesis puts Russian hybrid methods and ‘hybrid warfare’ into a new perspective by determining the extent of which Russian hybrid operations have aided Russia in achieving its aims in the Ukraine conflict in a strategic manner. In order to do so, a strategic value assessment model was developed and applied to Russian hybrid operations in the context of the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent conflict in Eastern Ukraine. This thesis has found that, despite seeing relative success in Crimea, Russian hybrid operations cannot be considered as highly strategic. This is mostly due to the heavy reliance on the use of Russian proxy forces in the form of separatist groups, which have proven to be difficult to control in the long term and have acted out of line with Russian national policy on some occasions.Show less
