This research aims to improve our understanding of the decision-making processes within the European Union (EU) concerning sanctions imposed on Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine....Show moreThis research aims to improve our understanding of the decision-making processes within the European Union (EU) concerning sanctions imposed on Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Through the implementation of a comprehensive framework, this research enables a thorough examination of the selection process for specific types of sanctions, their application across various sectors, and the consideration of exceptions. The study expands upon existing literature by integrating feedback effects into the framework, alongside normative, domestic political, and geopolitical factors, as well as diffusion effects. The findings underscore the significant influence of normative and geopolitical considerations, while also highlighting the constraints imposed by humanitarian and economic concerns. Furthermore, the analysis reveals a dynamic sanctions regime shaped by feedback mechanisms and evolving geopolitical dynamics. By providing a solid foundation, this study paves the way for future research efforts on sanction design. It enables comparisons with other entities that impose sanctions and facilitates the evaluation of diverse sanctioning instruments in terms of their effectiveness.Show less
The war between Russia and Ukraine that started in 2022 came as a shock to most of the world. While the war is still in progress, attempts to prosecute the aggressor have already been set in motion...Show moreThe war between Russia and Ukraine that started in 2022 came as a shock to most of the world. While the war is still in progress, attempts to prosecute the aggressor have already been set in motion. The crime of aggression, which refers to Russia initiating the war, currently falls outside of the prosecuting options within international law. Therefore, the idea was created to set up an ad-hoc criminal tribunal to prosecute Russia’s high officials for starting the war. This thesis examines the factors that influenced the Dutch government’s offer to host a potential criminal tribunal to hold Russia accountable for the crime of aggression. Government documents, policy reports and literature on the interplay between international law and international relations were analysed and provided a basis for the semistructured interviews. The interviews with government officials and professors in international law and foreign policy show that there are multiple factors that influenced this offer. It was found there is a strong relationship between the history of the Netherlands and the foreign policy identity that exists today. The focus on accountability and the fight against impunity strongly influenced the Netherlands’ commitment to aiding the international community, by focussing on their specialty: hosting an international tribunal. The most important factor that could be identified which influenced the offer is the aspiration of the Netherlands to project a foreign policy identity that is linked to hosting international tribunals.Show less
The thesis analyses the extent to which the 2013 Crisis in Ukraine affected Kazakhstan and Belarus's economic and political relations with Russia within the integrational framework of the Eurasian...Show moreThe thesis analyses the extent to which the 2013 Crisis in Ukraine affected Kazakhstan and Belarus's economic and political relations with Russia within the integrational framework of the Eurasian Economic Union.Show less
Both scholars and politicians struggle to understand how the decision was made to go ahead with the annexation and for what reasons. Some scholars argue that Russia decided to annex Crimea because...Show moreBoth scholars and politicians struggle to understand how the decision was made to go ahead with the annexation and for what reasons. Some scholars argue that Russia decided to annex Crimea because of its importance as “the spiritual source” of the Russian nation, others state that Russia’s historical claim to the peninsula was the reason for the annexation (Russia possessed it until 1954 when the Soviet leadership transferred it to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic). Another group claims it was a purely strategic decision since it allowed Russia to increase its military capabilities by taking over most of the Ukrainian Black See Fleet and that this was just the start of president Putin’s great power restoration campaign . Most of the explanations are rooted in either the realist theory that revolves around power maximisation and self-interest or the constructivist theory that focusses on norms and identities. This thesis will build on the realist explanations for the annexation of Crimea, by introducing an analysis through the understudied Type III neoclassical realist theory (NCR), coined by Ripsman, Taliafero and Lobell in their book ‘Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics’. The neoclassical realist theory used in this research recognises that a system-only explanation is insufficient and therefore combines systemic variables with unit-level variables in attempting to explain foreign policy choices. This thesis build on the realist explanations for the annexation of Crimea, by introducing an analysis through the understudied Type III neoclassical realist theory (NCR), coined by Ripsman, Taliafero and Lobell in their book ‘Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics’. The neoclassical realist theory used in this research recognises that a system-only explanation is insufficient and therefore combines systemic variables with unit-level variables in attempting to explain foreign policy choices. This thesis determined if the four intervening variables neoclassical realism type III identified (e.g. leader images, strategic culture, state-society relations and domestic political institutions) affected the manner in which Russia responded to certain external stimuli (geography, military technology, distribution of power, polarity of the international system, clarity of the international system and the nature of state’s strategic environment) that lead to the annexation of Crimea. This thesis found that a state's strategic environment contributed most significantly to the decision to annex Crimea, because without the political turmoil going on within Ukraine it would have been unlikely that Russia would have succeeded. The research also found that the intervening variables of leader image and strategic culture played a part in the decision making process. Even though the strategic culture helped to gain acceptance among society, it was the leader image that was most influential in shaping the ultimate decision. In the case of Russia and Crimea, it is very clear that president Putin was the actor that made the annexation a reality.Show less
In February 2014, the Euromaidan Revolution culminated in the fall of the Yakukovych government in Ukraine. The Russian Federation responded with the illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and...Show moreIn February 2014, the Euromaidan Revolution culminated in the fall of the Yakukovych government in Ukraine. The Russian Federation responded with the illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and the backing of the pro-Russian unrest in the eastern regions of Ukraine. This escalated into an armed conflict which remains hostile to this day. This thesis aims to investigate the Russian hybrid warfare conducted against the state of Ukraine. Hybrid warfare is a controversial theory developed to explain the post-Cold War conflicts. Such conflicts often have blurred lines between conventional and unconventional methods and modes of warfare where a simultaneous usage of these intend to reach political objectives. The hybrid warfare assessment framework will be applied to the case study of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.Show less
This thesis examines the influence of conflict in Afghanistan on Russia’s security hegemony in Central Asia. By considering Central Asia a Regional Security Complex, and by viewing Russia’s role...Show moreThis thesis examines the influence of conflict in Afghanistan on Russia’s security hegemony in Central Asia. By considering Central Asia a Regional Security Complex, and by viewing Russia’s role within it through the theoretical framework of negotiated hegemony, this thesis compares the role Russia played in the region in the timeframe from the fall of the Soviet Union to 2001 with the role it played following the US invasion of Afghanistan. It is argued that Central Asia started a successful process of reducing Russia’s influence by transforming its RSC from a unipolar one dominated by Russia, to a centered one where the Central Asian Republics (CARs) themselves defined the security sphere. This long-term process was temporarily abandoned by jumping on the short-term opportunity of counterbalancing Russia’s security hegemony with that of the US from 2001 onward. Disappointed by both Russia’s inability to deal with the Afghan conflict, and the US’ disinterest in pursuing a more active role in the particularities of the Central Asian RSC, the CARs re-entered negotiations with Russia over its security hegemony; strengthened this time, however, by their own proven capabilities and sovereignty.Show less
The aim of this thesis is to establish a better understanding of the inner workings of frozen conflicts, by addressing the question of how the conflicts in Moldova and Georgia in the early 90’s...Show moreThe aim of this thesis is to establish a better understanding of the inner workings of frozen conflicts, by addressing the question of how the conflicts in Moldova and Georgia in the early 90’s became frozen. The current comprehension of frozen conflicts, both in academia and policy-making circles is rather elusive, as the conflicts are often seen through a mono-theoretical lens, overlooking the potential interaction between different factors on different levels. The three main theoretical perspectives on frozen conflicts; the geopolitical, ethno-nationalist and political-economic perspective, are assessed, after which an explanatory variable is derived from each one. Subsequently, the cases of Moldova and Georgia are analyzed alongside these variables, to determine to what extent each mechanism plays a role in the development of frozen conflicts. A qualitative comparative analysis is carried out to assess the interrelation between variables, across the three different phases of a frozen conflict. The results of this research show that the frozen conflicts in Moldova and Georgia are neither solely ethnic nor geopolitical in nature. Ethnic tensions interplayed with geopolitical motives, which are substantiated by criminal economic incentives. Therefore, the multi-layered nature of frozen conflicts cannot fully be understood through a monotheoretical lens.Show less
The Syrian civil war has been one of the most protracted and severe conflicts in the Middle East in recent decades. Through this conflict, Syria has become the hub in regional conflicts,...Show moreThe Syrian civil war has been one of the most protracted and severe conflicts in the Middle East in recent decades. Through this conflict, Syria has become the hub in regional conflicts, geopolitical strife and sectarian violence. This thesis examines the European Union's response to this complex conflict through a neorealist lens and a detailed discussion of European policy throughout the years.Show less
This thesis examines the contribution of the two Russian think tanks – the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) and the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) – to...Show moreThis thesis examines the contribution of the two Russian think tanks – the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) and the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) – to the development of Russia’s foreign policy in the Arctic. Given an increasingly significant role played by think tanks in the foreign policy-making process, it appears important to consider whether and how Russian think tanks could be involved in this specific policy area. The thesis applies the case study method and draws on the documentary analysis in order to answer the research question: How and to what extent have Russian think tanks influenced the development of Russia’s foreign policy in the Arctic? The analysis presented in this thesis indicates that, by providing specific ideas and policy options, both thinks tanks have affected the Arctic foreign policy process, especially problem identification and agenda-setting. Overall, the thesis finds that examining the impact of Russian think tanks on Russia’s Arctic foreign policy helps to explain more fully its nature and dynamics.Show less
In 2014, the European Union enforced sanctions against Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine. The theory on sanctions provides multiple theories on their potential effectiveness. These...Show moreIn 2014, the European Union enforced sanctions against Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine. The theory on sanctions provides multiple theories on their potential effectiveness. These theories are applied in the case of Russia to answer whether they can be successfull in achieving their goal.Show less
Using case studies on Armenia and Moldova, this thesis contributes to the already rich body of literature that situates the position of the countries of Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus in...Show moreUsing case studies on Armenia and Moldova, this thesis contributes to the already rich body of literature that situates the position of the countries of Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus in their relations with the European Union and Russia. This thesis evidences a noticeable shift in emphasis in the European Union’s primary documents relating to the European Neighbourhood Policy and Eastern Partnership after the Georgia/Russia war in 2008. After this war, the European Union’s ‘common values,’ more widely known as liberal values, become focal. Effectively, this emphasis on common vales has further distanced the European Union and Russia, an authoritarian state which has recently taken a ‘conservative turn.’ This widening distance between the EU and Russia has made existing between the two actors more difficult for the countries trapped in the in-between.Show less
