The theory on (security) regionalism has shown that both the SCO and AU are considered to be part of ‘weak state IO’s’, which was proven through the variables put forward by Kelly. Both the SCO and...Show moreThe theory on (security) regionalism has shown that both the SCO and AU are considered to be part of ‘weak state IO’s’, which was proven through the variables put forward by Kelly. Both the SCO and AU strengthen sovereignty by turning the security dilemma inwards, so as to handle the issue themselves, with varying degrees of success. However, the AU is susceptible to intervention from above or from one of its members, if the situation is deemed sufficiently worrying and ‘grave circumstances’ have been observed. The relationships between the individual states and their regional organisations are significantly different, due to their own power projection capabilities. China’s power projection capability is the second largest in the world and will continue to improve, as military spending will increase. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s socio-economic and governance issues have been obstacles in acquiring sufficient growth and thus projecting power. This was also shown in the case study and the government’s approach to handling the issue, eventually leading to the formation of the MNJTF together with its mandate to defeat Boko Haram. By imposing hard-hitting measures on the region, China is able to keep terrorist attacks inside the country to a minimum, while allowing law enforcement agencies to catch-up with the terrorists. This is exactly how the CT theory was explained in theory and thus proves its efficacy in action. The African Union’s military approach has emerged through the lack of control Nigeria’s government has over its territory and lack of effective law enforcement measures. As Boko Haram spread across borders, a multinational task force was established to combat the group. It shows that the framework to combat terrorism established by the SCO RATS has a more effective approach. However, due to the nature of these autocratic regimes and the tendency of elites in these regimes to use the regional security organisations for the purpose of promoting their “collective internal security”, the chance remains high for abuses of power, suppression of minorities and human rights abuses. This is what the thesis found for the situation in China; with the contested designation of ETIM as a terrorist organization, and ‘loose’ framework in SCO RATS to designate all unwanted ‘activities’ as terrorism. Although it has proven significantly effective, the provisions in the SCO RATS are at times vague such as ‘preventive measures’, which could be used to manipulate or even infringe upon basic human rights. Therefore, this paper would recommend to implement a regional oversight committee, including neutral UN observers which would provide checks and balances on the military (hard) and law enforcement (soft) measures. This seems highly unlikely, China’s capabilities have proven to be effective in getting international recognition but handling the issue discreetly by itself. Therefore, for China or other SCO members to ask for outsiders to join contradicts the essence of what the SCO is in the eyes of China, a way to gain international legitimacy and recognition, but also a way to keep external influence out of the region and letting them handle the problem by their own.Show less
The One Belt-One Road (OBOR) initiative, also referred to as the ‘New Silk Road’, is possibly the single most impactful foreign policy initiavite of the coming decades. Launched by Chinese...Show moreThe One Belt-One Road (OBOR) initiative, also referred to as the ‘New Silk Road’, is possibly the single most impactful foreign policy initiavite of the coming decades. Launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, it aims at reconnecting various regions of Eurasia from China to Germany and from Russia to Iran and India. At first glance the idea of a silk road evokes the romantic sentiment of a historic symbol that brought prosperity to Eurasia and overcame borders and dichotomies between ‘East’ and ‘West’. Yet, some foreign scholars and media outlets have been quick to interpret OBOR as a competitive, geopolitical grand strategy, or a Chinese Marshall plan that is guided by China’s domestic, economic and security interest to help China disrupt the current global order. I will provide a somewhat different narrative for making sense of Xi Jinping’s ‘New Silk Road’ initiative in the context of China’s rise. Hence, I ask the question whether or not the ‘tide is turning’, or more concretely: Does the OBOR initiative represent a change in Chinese foreign policy, and if so: What kind of change? I will outline major arguments of US realist and Chinese scholars on the debate about China’s rise. I will then critically outline how this debate is framed by how traditional IRT analyse China’s foreign policy. Taking this as the context to my argument I will describe how OBOR reflects a change in the way that the Chinese government conducts its international affairs under Xi Jinping and how the discourse on IRT affects the analysis of OBOR, which is still in its conceptualisation phase. I offer two interpretations of such change: One critically acknowledges more realist domestic and self-interested factors that motivate OBOR; the other argues that OBOR is more complex and could facilitate responsible engagement with global challenges such as global economic imbalances, cultural heritage, and international security. Finally, I conduct a short case study on the rise of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in the context of OBOR and international security to build on the narrative of a more globally responsible China that increasingly uses multilateralism. I find that particularly examining transnational factors of the initiative helps to understand the New Silkroad in the context of a possible peaceful rise that improves human connectivity, exchange, and has the potential to tackle global challenges.Show less
