In the past, the threat of nuclear arms and the states and actors that might gain access to such technology has resulted in the pre-emptive use of military force against states. Israel attacked...Show moreIn the past, the threat of nuclear arms and the states and actors that might gain access to such technology has resulted in the pre-emptive use of military force against states. Israel attacked Iraq (Operation Opera in 1981) and Syria (Operation Orchard in 2007) in order to prevent or forcefully disrupt their nuclear proliferation efforts. Currently, concern about Iran’s nuclear program has raised debate about the possibility of an Israeli pre-emptive attack. This thesis employs hypotheses from realist, constructivist and liberal theory to explain the use of force in counter-proliferation, using a strategy of within-case and across-case analysis of both prior attacks. I locate determining conditions that led Israel to use force in counter proliferation. The hypotheses explore conditions such as uncertainty about state identity, the perception of threat, the risk of shift in regional power balance, prior military hostility, hostile public statements made by state leaders, undeterrability and the domestic support of state leaders. Most of these conditions are present in the current case of Iran, when considering the possibility of a pre-emptive Israeli attack. If Iran’s military support to Hezbollah is interpreted as indirect military hostility, all the conditions for an Israeli pre-emptive attack would be present, when considering the conditions leading to the previous two Israeli attacks in counter proliferation. The analysis suggests there is a high chance that this will cause Israel to use pre-emptive force in order to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, as the “Begin Doctrine”, on which Israel’s security policy is based, will not accept such high security risks.Show less
This thesis discusses the impact of opposition movements in effecting regime transition in Syria and Egypt during the Arab Spring, analyzing their organizational structure, objectives, strategies,...Show moreThis thesis discusses the impact of opposition movements in effecting regime transition in Syria and Egypt during the Arab Spring, analyzing their organizational structure, objectives, strategies, legitimacy, and de facto power. It starts out from the premise that it is crucial that the opposition influences 'soft-liners' within the regime to undermine its internal cohesion and stability. It is argued that the opposition in both countries has been durable due to intrinsic motivations of the participants and widespread social dissatisfaction, and their diffuse yet coherent grassroots forms of organization have rendered them hard to repress by the regime. In both countries, however, the opposition was unable to overthrow the regime by itself since it did not have sufficient military power resources to pose a real threat to the regime's survival. In Syria, the opposition could not generate enough division among the elite, while in Egypt, division already existed among the elite and this was augmented by the opposition, with the acquiescence of the military proving crucial in the regime transition. The extent of influence of the opposition was heavily constrained by the political opportunity structures in which they operated, with repression by the regime playing a large role and curtailing agency.Show less
This paper utilizes unpublished excavation data from Leiden University’s excavation at Tell Sabi Abyad, Syria to examine two types of figurines from the site’s Late Bronze Age Middle Assyrian...Show moreThis paper utilizes unpublished excavation data from Leiden University’s excavation at Tell Sabi Abyad, Syria to examine two types of figurines from the site’s Late Bronze Age Middle Assyrian occupation in the late 13th and 12th centuries BCE. Beyond the contextual and analytical presentation of new material to the archaeological community, it reestablishes an understudied typology through the promotion of a geographical, chronological, cultural, and functional frameworks. This study uses the figurines as a base to explore issues inherent in their find contexts and preservation. After establishing typologies and object catalogs, it explores the archaeological visibility of intentional material disregard, the dynamism of contemporary value attributions to representative material culture, and the interplay of ancient peoples with their local histories. In highlighting the functionality of a symbolic material culture that existed outside the settlement’s imperial sphere, this thesis uses the figurines to reveal the cosmopolitan nature of the common people at Tell Sabi Abyad.Show less
