To what extent can interstate conflict initiation be considered a coup-proofing strategy? Further, how can coup-proofing impact civil war onset and leader survival? This thesis provides insight...Show moreTo what extent can interstate conflict initiation be considered a coup-proofing strategy? Further, how can coup-proofing impact civil war onset and leader survival? This thesis provides insight into elite rivalry, coup-proofing and leader survival in authoritarian regimes. I use a single case study of authoritarian leader Mohamed Siad Barre of Somalia, who ruled Somalia from 1969 to1991. With the use of existing theories on authoritarian leaders, I determine whether leaders use interstate conflict initiation as a coup-proofing strategy by examining the Ogaden War (1977-1978). I also ascertain whether coup-proofing can contribute to civil war onset and the removal of leaders from office. I propose that the Ogaden War was initiated as a coup-proofing strategy to reduce the coup risk of the Somali leader from the Somali National Army. Thus, I argue that interstate conflict initiation can be considered a form of coup-proofing. The study also suggests that protracted use of coup-proofing strategies, specifically, exclusion along ethic or tribal lines can deepen cleavages within already fractionalized societies, which in turn can lead to civil war onset.Show less
The purpose of this study was to shed light on the relationship between regimes with a strong personalist dimension and a negative post-tenure fate. This was a relevant exercise, because the...Show moreThe purpose of this study was to shed light on the relationship between regimes with a strong personalist dimension and a negative post-tenure fate. This was a relevant exercise, because the personalist dimension was missing in existing frameworks addressing post-tenure fates of authoritarian leaders and elites. Based on available literature, this personalist dimension was hypothesized to be a strong indicator for a negative post-tenure fate. In this thesis this hypothesis is substantiated and found to be statistically significant through merging of the Archigos data-set on regime leaders and Geddes’ (1999) typology of authoritarian regimes. The relationship is then further explored through analysis of two similar cases, Libya and Tunisia. Based on this analysis it was possible to draw several plausible hypotheses regarding the relationship, which provide an interesting starting point for future research. All in all, it is clearly shown that the conditions that come with a strong personalist dimension can be expected to have a strong negative influence on the post-tenure fate of the regime leadership.Show less