Climate-conflict literature has been growing intensively in the last decade. With a focus on African and Middle Eastern countries, various types of climate variables try to explain divergent...Show moreClimate-conflict literature has been growing intensively in the last decade. With a focus on African and Middle Eastern countries, various types of climate variables try to explain divergent natures of conflict. Many different mechanisms were shown as linking the two together. This study aimed to contribute to the literature by investigating the role of economic dependence on the agricultural sector in the relationship between social unrest and changing patterns of temperature and precipitation. It was asked, thus, to what extent does the economic structure of a country mediate the link between climate and social unrest, in the African continent? The large-N statistical analysis was conducted, including all the African countries, with a population of at least a million. Specifically, a negative binomial regression was run for the years from 1990 to 2007. The key finding suggested that the bigger the percentage of agricultural production in GDP is, the more the country is likely to suffer from temperature rise induced social unrest. This suggests that, because of climate change, economic reliance on the agricultural sector is dangerous for the political stability and even security in Africa. It calls for the importance of using planned adaptation techniques and educating the society on climate change and its effects.Show less
