By creating artificial refugee flows towards Finland in late 2023, the Russian state has yet again expanded its frontiers in its conduct of hybrid warfare by using coercive engineered migration ...Show moreBy creating artificial refugee flows towards Finland in late 2023, the Russian state has yet again expanded its frontiers in its conduct of hybrid warfare by using coercive engineered migration (CEM). The indefinite border closure by the Finnish cabinet has mitigated the inflow of refugees (ab)used as involuntary ‘instruments’ in this struggle for power and influence which can be linked to the wider frame of operations against the West. Greenhill’s theory of using migration flows as coercive foreign policy, forcing a target to accede to concessions made by the challenger, is applied to this case study. The research empirically tests whether the challenger can amplify threats of CEM in creating different volumes of refugee flows coupled with their country of origin. The overall effectiveness and future likelihood of success of this type of coercion is analysed according to: (1) the empirical data collected; (2) the coercion’s societal manifestations; and (3) the effects of wider inter- and intra-European relations. As of now, use of CEM by the Russian state in this context does not offer credible threats of capacity swamping, and the basis for political agitation is lacking due to manifestations of these coercion pathways yet to occur. While drawing parallels from the past conduct of coercion concerning the events with Poland and Lithuania in 2022, the foreign policy approach of the Russian state has widely unified the Finnish population against a common threat, while the condemnation and resolve by wider European community has improved on the side. However, high success rate of CEM in the past, coupled with the recent rise of right-wing political movements across Europe, create a problematic foundation for future. As anxiety and suspicion towards migrants and refugees increases, this gives political munition for challengers willing to agitate and exploit societal and national divisions.Show less
