In conflict literature, much attention has been given to the relation between food prices and conflict, as well as the effects of climate change on conflict and food security, in an attempt to...Show moreIn conflict literature, much attention has been given to the relation between food prices and conflict, as well as the effects of climate change on conflict and food security, in an attempt to explain civilian victimisation through food security. However, the effect of crop pests and diseases on violence against civilians has not been studied, despite the large proportion of worldwide crop loss caused by these factors. This study theorises that these pests pressure the local food supply and thus force armed groups to use violence in order to obtain their necessary resources from the local population. This results in the hypothesis that the occurrence of plant pests in an area increases the risk of violence against civilians by non-state actors. Specifically, this study focuses on the effects of locust swarms in four African countries: Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya. The hypothesis is quantitatively tested using both OLS regression and negative binomial regression. A positive correlation between locust swarm occurrence and violence against civilians is found, which holds up against both fixed effects and specific control variables. This new finding suggests that the occurrence of locust swarms shortens the time horizons for cooperation between rebels and the local population, incentivising rebels to quickly gain resources using violence rather than engaging in long-term, more peaceful cooperation.Show less
Due to climate change and rising temperatures, the world is more often facing extreme weather conditions like drought. Such conditions of water scarcity especially cause problems in countries...Show moreDue to climate change and rising temperatures, the world is more often facing extreme weather conditions like drought. Such conditions of water scarcity especially cause problems in countries dependent on agriculture, where failed harvests can cause negative income shocks and grievance development, influencing conflict. Focusing on the relationship between conflict intensity and water scarcity, this research explores the case of the Syrian civil war from 2011-2017, finding that over-time differences in temperatures can explain monthly variations in number of deaths. This research thereby confirms the fact that rising temperatures can lead to more intense conflict and concludes with brief discussion of policy recommendations to tackle drought-related conflict.Show less
This bachelor thesis considers the prioritisation and sequencing of policies in the process of post-conflict state-building. It starts by considering existing literature of both state-building and...Show moreThis bachelor thesis considers the prioritisation and sequencing of policies in the process of post-conflict state-building. It starts by considering existing literature of both state-building and sequencing to outline how it has informed the main theoretical framework on the topic: Timilsina's (2007) three phases for the sequencing of priorities in state-building. The thesis then analyses the replicability of this framework in the case of Somalia (2013-2021), for which it finds that priorities were largely set according to the theory, but also that the sequencing of individual policies saw unequal implementation. It concludes with a discussion from which it is clear that the unequal implementation resulted in unequal long-term state- and peace-building outcomes.Show less
Het sultanaat Banten kende na de stichting in de zestiende eeuw een turbulente geschiedenis die zich liet kenmerken door interne conflicten binnen de bovenlaag van de Bantense bevolking in een...Show moreHet sultanaat Banten kende na de stichting in de zestiende eeuw een turbulente geschiedenis die zich liet kenmerken door interne conflicten binnen de bovenlaag van de Bantense bevolking in een periode voordat de VOC een grote rol kreeg in Zuidoost-Azië. Deze scriptie gaat op zoek naar de oorzaak achter de interne conflicten en hierbij zet de spelers in Banten en hun motivaties uiteen. De Bantense conflicten uitten zich langs de lijnen van steeds terugkomende tegenstellingen tussen de havenstad en deShow less
In 2018, the US Department of Defense announced its new National Cyber Strategy. With other actors in cyberspace becoming increasingly aggressive and potent, this strategy is designed to establish...Show moreIn 2018, the US Department of Defense announced its new National Cyber Strategy. With other actors in cyberspace becoming increasingly aggressive and potent, this strategy is designed to establish the US as a capable and functional actor in the domain. This new national cyber strategy differs greatly from the previous deterrence-based approach, illustrating a major shift in strategic thinking. The US military has now moved away from deterring enemies through denial and cost imposition, and introduced two new concepts instead: Persistent Engagement & Defend Forward, PE/DF for short. As cyberspace has grown to be the backbone of modern society, this change is significant for both scholars and the rest of the world. Through a case study of the US military, this thesis aims to investigate how this new strategy influenced the manner in which the US military conducts cyber operations. The results of this research show that the US has become significantly more aggressive, pro-active, streamlined, diverse in methods and in general capable in engaging with hostile actors in cyberspace.Show less
Master thesis | Crisis and Security Management (MSc)
open access
Freshwater is an essential yet scarce good, that is predicted to only become scarcer because of climate change and growing populations. In addition, freshwater in rivers is often shared between...Show moreFreshwater is an essential yet scarce good, that is predicted to only become scarcer because of climate change and growing populations. In addition, freshwater in rivers is often shared between multiple countries. Despite multiple predictions by scholars and experts, states often do not go to war over freshwater. Instead, most disputes end in the signing of a treaty. However, these treaties are not always fair and do not, actually, always end conflict. In the view of this research, treaties are merely a way in which states fight, without using violence, and should thus be seen as a part of ongoing conflict, rather than the end of it. In addition, despite theoretical predictions, international organisations do not play a large role in the creation of River Basin Organisations and neither do hydrohegemons.Show less
A mong re newable resources, water has been a constant f ocal point for concerns over scarcity and inter state competition . A comprehensive literature review suggests that academia is divided on t...Show moreA mong re newable resources, water has been a constant f ocal point for concerns over scarcity and inter state competition . A comprehensive literature review suggests that academia is divided on t he link between water scarcity and international relations . T h is analysis asks : How do inter state economic ties a ffe ct the influence of water scarcity on hydro political inter state relations? Building on classic liberal economic argument s this paper hypothesize s that the more two states are connected th rough trad e agre ements, the less likely it is f or water scarcity to lead to co nflictual hydro political r elations. I conduct an O rdinary Least Squares r egression and a M ulti n o mi al L og i stic r egression with ‘precipitation ’ as an independent variable, ‘inter state rela t ions’ during water eve nts as a dependent variable and ‘trade agreements’ ( aggre gated and disaggregated in bilateral and multilat eral t reaties ) as a conditiona l va riable. E ven though the empirical results are not robust across all models , a general directi on o f the moderation effect is evident. Inter state economic ties in gener al, and multilateral trade agreements in particular can diminish the negative effect of water scarcity on hydro politics. Potential future research should further test the rob ustne s s of this relationship and introduce more nuance by differentiating be twe en trade agreement types and improving the operationalization of the water scarcity variable.Show less
The protection of nature and wildlife is crucial today. More and more studies, however, speak of violent incidents involving protected areas. To investigate the relationship between protected areas...Show moreThe protection of nature and wildlife is crucial today. More and more studies, however, speak of violent incidents involving protected areas. To investigate the relationship between protected areas and low-intensity conflict, this article addresses the factors that increase the likelihood of low-intensity conflict when protected areas are established. Widely accepted explanations of rebellion focus on the grievance argument. As with the establishment of a protected area local communities are deprived of land and resources, this article argues that social unrest is likely to increase when protected areas are established. However, building on Ostrom’s “Governing the Commons” theory, intercommunal conflicts as well as social unrest are likely to decrease when a protected area is created. The literature on protected areas and its impact on conflict is vast, but primarily conducted qualitatively. By doing a quantitative study, this article attempts to fill an important gap in the literature. The results of this analysis cautiously suggest that current protected areas in Africa still provoke discontent, as low-intensity conflict increases when the amount of protected areas increases. Future studies are needed to further study the mechanisms that make conflict involving protected areas more or less likely.Show less
Recently, scholarly debate on peacebuilding and reconciliation is making a “local-turn”, pointing towards local actors, such as civil society organizations, to achieve inclusive and locally...Show moreRecently, scholarly debate on peacebuilding and reconciliation is making a “local-turn”, pointing towards local actors, such as civil society organizations, to achieve inclusive and locally grounded peace and reconciliation. Despite this interest, little studies have examined if, and how, these local actors make a contribution to these goals. Such a case is Lebanon, characterized by protracted, sectarian conflict, but where a group of CSOs is active within this contentious nexus between conflict and peace. How does the work of these CSOs fit in the paradigm of reconciliation? Can they contribute to reconciliation in Lebanon? Following these questions, this research suggests that these CSOs can be understood through the framework of political reconciliation of Schaap (2005). Furthermore, they exhibit various functions to a reconciliation process: They advocate new narratives on identity, conflict and history, and the rights of victims. It arises that participatory and grassroot approaches are most conducive to successes of the CSOs. At the same time, the strategy and goals of the CSOs are negotiated by constraining factors. In what I call a ‘negotiated reconciliation process’ sectarian and corrupt structures on the one hand, and resource-based problems and international donor wishes on the other, mitigate the level of success of the CSOs.Show less
The African Union emerged in 2002, and presents itself to the world as Africa’s peace actor. Its expressions contain Pan-African ideals, and the conviction that peace and security are main...Show moreThe African Union emerged in 2002, and presents itself to the world as Africa’s peace actor. Its expressions contain Pan-African ideals, and the conviction that peace and security are main prerequisites for a prosperous future. Most AU-studies regard the question if AU’s peacekeeping efforts in interventions are successful, or investigate how states harm the continental endeavour. They conclude that the PSC lacks structural and incidental capacity and political willingness of states. This approach and outcome fits to the dominant realist approach, assuming that the African Union consists of power-seeking states, looking after their interests. This thesis contributes to this debate by utilizing another, constructivist approach. Role theory advances the understanding of this peace actor. The performance of the AU in peace policy, and the position of member states is investigated in the context of role-conception, role-contestation and role-expectations. In this thesis the AU’s role-conception, and how it develops, is central. The definition of this role was not given yet in the CA, although some ingredients where in there. The contestation by states and AU-institutions shaped the self-conception of the AU, and stimulated the policy of prevention. The expectations of others, in particular international financial partners, have had significant influence on the AU. The UN requires IOs to take responsibility in building peace in their region, and pays for AU-led missions. The political and social contexts cause, by a process of socialization, a dynamic and continuously developing self-conception of the AU. The current self-conception of the AU is being a comprehensive power. It deploys troops in African conflict areas as a military power. However, it performed also as a civil power by promoting and supporting CSOs; and even as normative power, by emphasizing the responsibilities for states to secure their people (policy of indifference).Show less
This thesis aims to answer the question how the current state of political culture in Tajikistan came to be, with specific focus on how the secularization legacy of the Soviet Union and two large...Show moreThis thesis aims to answer the question how the current state of political culture in Tajikistan came to be, with specific focus on how the secularization legacy of the Soviet Union and two large-scale conflicts influenced the position of political Islam.Show less
