In conflict literature, much attention has been given to the relation between food prices and conflict, as well as the effects of climate change on conflict and food security, in an attempt to...Show moreIn conflict literature, much attention has been given to the relation between food prices and conflict, as well as the effects of climate change on conflict and food security, in an attempt to explain civilian victimisation through food security. However, the effect of crop pests and diseases on violence against civilians has not been studied, despite the large proportion of worldwide crop loss caused by these factors. This study theorises that these pests pressure the local food supply and thus force armed groups to use violence in order to obtain their necessary resources from the local population. This results in the hypothesis that the occurrence of plant pests in an area increases the risk of violence against civilians by non-state actors. Specifically, this study focuses on the effects of locust swarms in four African countries: Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya. The hypothesis is quantitatively tested using both OLS regression and negative binomial regression. A positive correlation between locust swarm occurrence and violence against civilians is found, which holds up against both fixed effects and specific control variables. This new finding suggests that the occurrence of locust swarms shortens the time horizons for cooperation between rebels and the local population, incentivising rebels to quickly gain resources using violence rather than engaging in long-term, more peaceful cooperation.Show less
Due to climate change and rising temperatures, the world is more often facing extreme weather conditions like drought. Such conditions of water scarcity especially cause problems in countries...Show moreDue to climate change and rising temperatures, the world is more often facing extreme weather conditions like drought. Such conditions of water scarcity especially cause problems in countries dependent on agriculture, where failed harvests can cause negative income shocks and grievance development, influencing conflict. Focusing on the relationship between conflict intensity and water scarcity, this research explores the case of the Syrian civil war from 2011-2017, finding that over-time differences in temperatures can explain monthly variations in number of deaths. This research thereby confirms the fact that rising temperatures can lead to more intense conflict and concludes with brief discussion of policy recommendations to tackle drought-related conflict.Show less
This bachelor thesis considers the prioritisation and sequencing of policies in the process of post-conflict state-building. It starts by considering existing literature of both state-building and...Show moreThis bachelor thesis considers the prioritisation and sequencing of policies in the process of post-conflict state-building. It starts by considering existing literature of both state-building and sequencing to outline how it has informed the main theoretical framework on the topic: Timilsina's (2007) three phases for the sequencing of priorities in state-building. The thesis then analyses the replicability of this framework in the case of Somalia (2013-2021), for which it finds that priorities were largely set according to the theory, but also that the sequencing of individual policies saw unequal implementation. It concludes with a discussion from which it is clear that the unequal implementation resulted in unequal long-term state- and peace-building outcomes.Show less
Het sultanaat Banten kende na de stichting in de zestiende eeuw een turbulente geschiedenis die zich liet kenmerken door interne conflicten binnen de bovenlaag van de Bantense bevolking in een...Show moreHet sultanaat Banten kende na de stichting in de zestiende eeuw een turbulente geschiedenis die zich liet kenmerken door interne conflicten binnen de bovenlaag van de Bantense bevolking in een periode voordat de VOC een grote rol kreeg in Zuidoost-Azië. Deze scriptie gaat op zoek naar de oorzaak achter de interne conflicten en hierbij zet de spelers in Banten en hun motivaties uiteen. De Bantense conflicten uitten zich langs de lijnen van steeds terugkomende tegenstellingen tussen de havenstad en deShow less
In 2018, the US Department of Defense announced its new National Cyber Strategy. With other actors in cyberspace becoming increasingly aggressive and potent, this strategy is designed to establish...Show moreIn 2018, the US Department of Defense announced its new National Cyber Strategy. With other actors in cyberspace becoming increasingly aggressive and potent, this strategy is designed to establish the US as a capable and functional actor in the domain. This new national cyber strategy differs greatly from the previous deterrence-based approach, illustrating a major shift in strategic thinking. The US military has now moved away from deterring enemies through denial and cost imposition, and introduced two new concepts instead: Persistent Engagement & Defend Forward, PE/DF for short. As cyberspace has grown to be the backbone of modern society, this change is significant for both scholars and the rest of the world. Through a case study of the US military, this thesis aims to investigate how this new strategy influenced the manner in which the US military conducts cyber operations. The results of this research show that the US has become significantly more aggressive, pro-active, streamlined, diverse in methods and in general capable in engaging with hostile actors in cyberspace.Show less
The sibling relationship is a unique and long lasting relationship for individuals, which contributes to the social development of a child. During childhood and adolescence, the relationship...Show moreThe sibling relationship is a unique and long lasting relationship for individuals, which contributes to the social development of a child. During childhood and adolescence, the relationship between siblings changes especially in the amount of warmth and conflict between them. Previous research shows that the experience of differential parenting can cause feelings of jealousy, which in turn affects the quality of the sibling relationship in forms of less warmth and more physical or psychological aggression. The current cross-sectional study examined the relation between differential parenting and physical or psychological aggression between siblings and the potential moderating role of the warmth within the sibling relationship. The sample consisted of 22 children between 9 and 18 years old and their 19 younger siblings also between 9 and 18 years old. The study used online self-report questionnaires to measure the experienced differential parenting (SIDE), sibling physical and/or psychological aggression (CTS2-SP) and the perceived warmth within the sibling relationship (SRQ-S). The results showed a significant relation between differential parenting and psychical or psychological aggression within the sibling relationship for the youngest siblings. This means that when the youngest sibling is experiencing differential parenting, there also will occur more physical or psychological aggression. This relation remained significant when controlling for warmth between the sibling relationship. This relation was not found for the older siblings, which means that when the older siblings experience differential parenting this will not lead to physical or psychological aggression. No significant moderation effect was found for warmth within the sibling relationship on the relation between differential parenting and physical and/or psychological aggression for both the oldest and youngest siblings. Future research should focus more on the possibilities that sibling relationships can offer, especially which protective role a sibling relationship might have. It is also important that parents become more aware of how their children might experience certain parental behavior and what consequences this might have.Show less
Master thesis | Crisis and Security Management (MSc)
open access
Freshwater is an essential yet scarce good, that is predicted to only become scarcer because of climate change and growing populations. In addition, freshwater in rivers is often shared between...Show moreFreshwater is an essential yet scarce good, that is predicted to only become scarcer because of climate change and growing populations. In addition, freshwater in rivers is often shared between multiple countries. Despite multiple predictions by scholars and experts, states often do not go to war over freshwater. Instead, most disputes end in the signing of a treaty. However, these treaties are not always fair and do not, actually, always end conflict. In the view of this research, treaties are merely a way in which states fight, without using violence, and should thus be seen as a part of ongoing conflict, rather than the end of it. In addition, despite theoretical predictions, international organisations do not play a large role in the creation of River Basin Organisations and neither do hydrohegemons.Show less
The African Union emerged in 2002, and presents itself to the world as Africa’s peace actor. Its expressions contain Pan-African ideals, and the conviction that peace and security are main...Show moreThe African Union emerged in 2002, and presents itself to the world as Africa’s peace actor. Its expressions contain Pan-African ideals, and the conviction that peace and security are main prerequisites for a prosperous future. Most AU-studies regard the question if AU’s peacekeeping efforts in interventions are successful, or investigate how states harm the continental endeavour. They conclude that the PSC lacks structural and incidental capacity and political willingness of states. This approach and outcome fits to the dominant realist approach, assuming that the African Union consists of power-seeking states, looking after their interests. This thesis contributes to this debate by utilizing another, constructivist approach. Role theory advances the understanding of this peace actor. The performance of the AU in peace policy, and the position of member states is investigated in the context of role-conception, role-contestation and role-expectations. In this thesis the AU’s role-conception, and how it develops, is central. The definition of this role was not given yet in the CA, although some ingredients where in there. The contestation by states and AU-institutions shaped the self-conception of the AU, and stimulated the policy of prevention. The expectations of others, in particular international financial partners, have had significant influence on the AU. The UN requires IOs to take responsibility in building peace in their region, and pays for AU-led missions. The political and social contexts cause, by a process of socialization, a dynamic and continuously developing self-conception of the AU. The current self-conception of the AU is being a comprehensive power. It deploys troops in African conflict areas as a military power. However, it performed also as a civil power by promoting and supporting CSOs; and even as normative power, by emphasizing the responsibilities for states to secure their people (policy of indifference).Show less
This thesis aims to answer the question how the current state of political culture in Tajikistan came to be, with specific focus on how the secularization legacy of the Soviet Union and two large...Show moreThis thesis aims to answer the question how the current state of political culture in Tajikistan came to be, with specific focus on how the secularization legacy of the Soviet Union and two large-scale conflicts influenced the position of political Islam.Show less
National parks in the global South are increasingly marked by a trend of militarised conservation, whereby park rangers receive military training and firearms for anti-poaching operations....Show moreNational parks in the global South are increasingly marked by a trend of militarised conservation, whereby park rangers receive military training and firearms for anti-poaching operations. Especially in conflict situations where violence poses a security threat to conservation efforts, these policies are justified as an effective solution. This can be attributed to the Western discourse that fuels the politics of conservation and is based on a strict dichotomy between nature and society. Within this discourse, poachers and charcoal producers are characterised as villains and the context and motivations behind their actions is ignored. To exemplify the negative repercussions of this process, this thesis analyses militarised conservation in Virunga National Park in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and argues that this form of nature protection infringes on livelihood strategies of the local people in North Kivu. Militarisation in Virunga is intended to demobilise militias who exploit the park’s natural resources, but has a much stronger impact on the local population, who depend on Virunga’s forests for their livelihoods. These people therefore increasingly collaborate with rebel groups, blurring the lines between ‘good’ and ‘evil’ that the Western conservation discourse is built on. This collaboration leads to further resource exploitation and an escalation of violence. Therefore, this thesis claims that, due to the complexity of the situation in Virunga, militarised conservation is counterproductive and leads to a vicious circle of violence.Show less
The political situation in Syria has captured the interest of many scholars since its independence in 1946, and especially with the rise of the socialist Ba’ath party, and its patron Hafez Assad,...Show moreThe political situation in Syria has captured the interest of many scholars since its independence in 1946, and especially with the rise of the socialist Ba’ath party, and its patron Hafez Assad, to power. Assad’s authoritarian rule paved the way for Ba’ath party members and his immediate family members to accumulate wealth and power. This patrimonial approach has contributed to reshaping the class system and creating different types of the bourgeoisie. When Bashar Assad succeeded his father in the year 2000, the political-economic strategy in Syria changed a little by depriving the Ba’ath party members of their privileges and giving them to other prominent government officials and members of the country’s upper and upper-middle classes through neopatrimonial approaches. The new ‘state bourgeoisie’ in Syria did not only include Alawites who are directly related to Assad, but the new order also included Sunnis and Christians who were given a chance to get wealthy by proving their loyalty to Assad and cooperating with the regime. Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Syrian businesspeople have either continued supporting the regime or decided to remain silent and leave the country. Although the popular narrative of the Syrian conflict is largely sectarian in nature, sectarianism is not the only significant factor. Class has played a big role in the public’s dismay and contributed to the outbreak of the uprising. The business elite’s reaction to the conflict has contributed to the longevity of the conflict one hand and that of the Assad regime on the other. The loyal elites have benefited largely from this ongoing conflict whereas others who remained neutral risked the confiscation of their properties, and that of their family, and various terrorist charges. This thesis tackles the Syrian conflict from a different angle and highlights the role of the Syrian businesspeople.Show less
The Mekong River is an important water source for the Southeast Asian states, shared among six riparian states. To meet the growing energy needs, Lao is constructing hydropower dams on the Mekong...Show moreThe Mekong River is an important water source for the Southeast Asian states, shared among six riparian states. To meet the growing energy needs, Lao is constructing hydropower dams on the Mekong mainstream which will have negative transboundary impacts. In this thesis, I focus on the absence of escalated inter-state conflict in the Mekong River Basin despite the disputed construction of hydropower dams on the Mekong mainstream. The question that I aim to answer is whether the Mekong River Commission (MRC) is accountable for the absence of escalated inter-state conflict despite the controversial construction of hydropower dams on the mainstream. I found that for the MRC to be accountable for the absence of escalated inter-state conflict, it should have applied issue linkage to settle the dispute, it should have settled the disputes through a dispute-settlement mechanism and it should have monitored the development of the river. I found that the MRC is not accountable for the absence of escalated inter-state conflict and maintenance of cooperation, because its dispute-settlement mechanism failed to settle the Xayaburi dispute and the MRC was not directly accountable for the issue linkages created. I conclude that another driving force must have been accountable for the absence of inter-state conflict.Show less