Current academic literature falsely assumes that an authoritarian regime can solely transition into a democracy, other type of autocracy or a similar autocracy. This paper shows that there can be a...Show moreCurrent academic literature falsely assumes that an authoritarian regime can solely transition into a democracy, other type of autocracy or a similar autocracy. This paper shows that there can be a fourth alternative: state failure. This paper conceptualises state failure in Westphalian terms, namely when there is an absence of internal and external sovereignty and the state apparatus fails to provide essential services. The paper hence focuses on possible explanations of state failure in autocratic regimes. Specifically, the paper focuses on personalism as a predictor for state failure, which must be understood as the degree to which an autocratic leader forms the regime to their personal demands. The argument of this paper, consequently, follows that personalism is detrimental to the state’s institutions, as these institutions are formed to solely function under the regime’s current leader. Additionally, the paper theorised that this effect would be stronger in regimes where regime change was imposed, as these regimes would be especially ill prepared for the sudden change in regime. Through a binomial logistic regression, this paper has found evidence that higher personalism indeed does lead to a higher probability of state failure, but has found no evidence to support the second claim, as the size of the effect of personalism on state failure seems to decrease when only analysing those regimes which experienced imposed regime change.Show less
Bachelor thesis | Cultural Anthropology and Development Sociology (BSc)
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This Bachelor-thesis focuses on the development of the Afghan state since the regime of the Taliban was toppled by the invasion of the United States. This thesis explores the notion that...Show moreThis Bachelor-thesis focuses on the development of the Afghan state since the regime of the Taliban was toppled by the invasion of the United States. This thesis explores the notion that misconceptions about the manner in which the regime of the Taliban governed Afghanistan have contributed to the ongoing violence and unrest that plagues Afghanistan until this day. Firstly, the functioning of a state is examined through the works of Michel Foucault and James Scott. This provides the framework in which the regime of the Taliban and the government of Hamid Karzai are analyzed. The concept of a 'failed state' as outlined by Noam Chomsky and others is used to examine to what extent the pre 9/11 Taliban-regime as well as the post 9/11 government of Hamid Karzai constitute a 'failed state'. This thesis argues that by determining that the Taliban controlled a 'failed state', the approach of the US and NATO forces used to occupy Afghanistan and build a democratic state has failed. The idea of the Taliban as a movement that did not develop state institutions or govern Afghanistan has resulted in a lack of development of state institutions by western forces. The United States and its allies believed that holding democratic elections without developing the capacity of the state would result in a stable Afghan state. This thesis argues that the Taliban was not, like many believed, simply a barbaric Islamic fundamentalist movement that presided over a 'failed state'. Rather, it is argued that the Taliban by pacifying large parts of the country, implementing a system of Islamic law and developing institutions to exert its power, governed a territory that did not wholly constitute a 'failed state'. The developments in Afghanistan can not be accurately described without analyzing the foreign policies of the Soviet Union, the United States and the neighboring countries towards Afghanistan during and after the Cold War. The spread of Islamic fundamentalism from the 1980's onward is also essential. Authors such as Ahmed Rashid and Thomas Barfield provide the accounts of these policies and developments. When the rise of the Taliban is set in the historical developments that had taken place and by taking the policies of the neighboring countries into account, an image of the Taliban as a government presiding over a state which functions to a certain extent emerges. The thesis link the misconceptions about the Taliban to Edward Said and his notion of Orientalism. Cases are analyzed which show that the Taliban can be viewed as a calculating and pragmatic movement, rather than a barbaric fundamentalist movement. Mullah Omar claimed in 1996 to be the 'Amir al-Momineen', the 'Commander of the Faithful' and therefore the rightful successor to the prophet Muhammed. Many voices in the West see this as proof of the Taliban constituting a fundamentalist movement with an erratic leader. This thesis argues that this was a calculated move by the Taliban in order to present themselves as the movement with the legitimate leader that would steer the country away from the tribal and ethnic struggles which had destroyed Afghanistan, despite being at its core a mainly Pashtun-movement which had incorporated many Pashtun tribal codes in its version of Islamic law. Incorporating many aspects of the Pashtun tribal codes can also be seen as a pragmatic policy in order to be able to govern the mainly Pashtun south of Afghanistan. This contradicts the image of the Taliban as a barbaric movement implementing a version of Islamic law which is rejected by the entire population. Another case this thesis explores using various authors is the destruction of the giant Buddha statues in Bamiyan. The world reacted to this with disgust and blamed the strict Islamic policies of the Taliban and described the movement as being ignorant about the outside world. This thesis argues that the decision to blow up the statues was a calculated reaction of the Taliban to not being recognized by the world community with the exception of Pakistan, Saudi-Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan and that the movement was very much aware about its position in the arena of international relations. The occupation of American and NATO forces without developing the Afghan state created a situation in many regions of the country, especially in the south and the border area with Pakistan, where a functioning system that had been in place during the reign of the Taliban was not replaced by another system or the presence of the government. This has resulted in the reemergence of the Taliban as a rival to the power of the state in present day Afghanistan and through this, the present government of Afghanistan shares many features of a 'failed state'.Show less
