The central objective of this research is to examine the evolution of the Kremlin’s counteractive strategy toward the “color revolutions” in post-Soviet states in light of the most recent case of...Show moreThe central objective of this research is to examine the evolution of the Kremlin’s counteractive strategy toward the “color revolutions” in post-Soviet states in light of the most recent case of protest-based regime change, the Velvet Revolution in Armenia. The latter is conceptualized as a successor to the initial interrelated wave of “color revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, which illustrates a changing pattern of opposition movements’ learning-drawing behavior to neutralize Russian interference. The Russian counteractive approach toward the revolutions is analyzed through the use of prospect theory, further revealing that the Kremlin’s strategy has evolved from taking an active to a more passive stance. The findings do not to confirm that Russia has developed a specific strategy or that its approach has evolved through a self-learning basis despite its increasing willingness to take on a more balanced position. To better understand this shift, three hypotheses (“the actor-centered hypothesis,” “the Western support hypothesis” and “the sitting regime hypothesis”) are formulated and tested as alternative explanations through the use of process tracing. The analysis of the evidence reveals that there is, indeed, a causal link between the oppositions’ evolving political agenda and the corresponding passivity of the Kremlin’s approach, which is observed in Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. However, there is no solid evidence to confirm that Western support during a revolution or that the active attempts of the incumbents to stay in power have specifically triggered the Russian response. Nevertheless, Russian authorities have actively used the alleged Western interference as a tool to delegitimize the revolutions.Show less
In 2013, the elections in Cambodia ended in a surprising result with the opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), getting almost as many votes as the main party, the Cambodia's...Show moreIn 2013, the elections in Cambodia ended in a surprising result with the opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), getting almost as many votes as the main party, the Cambodia's People Party (CPP). Since 1993, no political party had been able to be an actual threat for the CPP. In this thesis, the reasons for this sudden rise in popularity of the CNRP will, therefore, be identified. It will be shown that the rise in social media and youth political participation positively influenced the rising popularity of the CNRP.Show less
This thesis discusses the impact of opposition movements in effecting regime transition in Syria and Egypt during the Arab Spring, analyzing their organizational structure, objectives, strategies,...Show moreThis thesis discusses the impact of opposition movements in effecting regime transition in Syria and Egypt during the Arab Spring, analyzing their organizational structure, objectives, strategies, legitimacy, and de facto power. It starts out from the premise that it is crucial that the opposition influences 'soft-liners' within the regime to undermine its internal cohesion and stability. It is argued that the opposition in both countries has been durable due to intrinsic motivations of the participants and widespread social dissatisfaction, and their diffuse yet coherent grassroots forms of organization have rendered them hard to repress by the regime. In both countries, however, the opposition was unable to overthrow the regime by itself since it did not have sufficient military power resources to pose a real threat to the regime's survival. In Syria, the opposition could not generate enough division among the elite, while in Egypt, division already existed among the elite and this was augmented by the opposition, with the acquiescence of the military proving crucial in the regime transition. The extent of influence of the opposition was heavily constrained by the political opportunity structures in which they operated, with repression by the regime playing a large role and curtailing agency.Show less
