What explains variation in the expansion of rebel governance beyond pre-existing institutions? While studies have focused on variation in rebel governance, the relation between pre-existing...Show moreWhat explains variation in the expansion of rebel governance beyond pre-existing institutions? While studies have focused on variation in rebel governance, the relation between pre-existing institutions and rebel governance remains unclear. This thesis uses process-tracing and the cases of the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF), a rebel group that expanded its governance significantly beyond pre-existing institutions, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), a rebel group that expanded its governance less beyond pre-existing institutions. It examines the influence of rebel group ideology, governance provided by other actors, and rebel group resources. This thesis shows that variation in the expansion of rebel governance beyond pre-existing institutions is explained by different resources. Rebel groups interact differently with pre-existing institutions, because rebel groups govern to obtain resources, and different resources create different types of reliance upon the population. The findings highlight the role of the strategic concerns of rebel groups and external actors in shaping rebel-civilian relations. This way, this research contributes to the understanding of rebel group behaviour, and the complexity of warzones, while also acknowledging the pre-existing social order.Show less
Why do some rebel groups engage in inclusive forms of rebel governance by including local citizens in political decision-making processes whereas other groups rule more independently and focus on...Show moreWhy do some rebel groups engage in inclusive forms of rebel governance by including local citizens in political decision-making processes whereas other groups rule more independently and focus on little more than security and funding their rebellion? I argue that the level of inclusiveness of civilians in rebel governance depends on the group’s reliance on lootable natural resources. Rebel groups that rely on these resources are less dependent on the civilian population for support and therefore less likely to include them in the governing process. To test this hypothesis, I combine newly available quantitative data on rebel governance with existing data on the presence of natural resources. In doing so, I attempt to bridge the fields of natural resources and rebel governance. The analysis finds no support for the hypothesis, lootable natural resources show to have a positive influence on the level of rebel governance inclusiveness. The findings have implications for both academics and policy makers.Show less
This research studies the impact of water scarcity on the occurrence of civilian victimization. Water scarcity has been understudied in research on natural resource and political violence. This...Show moreThis research studies the impact of water scarcity on the occurrence of civilian victimization. Water scarcity has been understudied in research on natural resource and political violence. This study will assess the current literature on civilian victimization by rebel groups and the role of water scarcity to contribute to the academic debate. According to the literature on rebel capability, I argue that civilian victimization is dependent on the relative capability of rebel groups. The hypothesis is examined with statistical analysis using data from a total of 147 first administrative districts in Africa. The results show a negative but insignificant relationship between access to water and civilian victimization. Civilian victimization is less likely to occur in water scarce regions. The implications of this research suggest that the impact of water scarcity on political violence should be further examined with extensive and conclusive data.Show less
How do natural disasters affect the risk of wartime rape in conflict spaces? To date, research has suggested that natural disasters generate conditions of increased vulnerability to interpersonal...Show moreHow do natural disasters affect the risk of wartime rape in conflict spaces? To date, research has suggested that natural disasters generate conditions of increased vulnerability to interpersonal sexual violence. Meanwhile, influential literature on security studies points to wartime rape as a socialization tool used by armed groups to create intragroup social cohesion. This study attempts to bridge the gap between these two works of literatures through analyzing the dynamics of wartime rape committed by disaster-affected armed groups. Drawing on the sociology of disaster, this paper proposes that the risk of wartime rape decreases when a natural disaster inflicts high costs in a country that is enduring a civil conflict. Empirically, this paper explores this suggested relationship across 179 countries worldwide during the period 1989-2015. Based on quantitative data on natural disasters, wartime rape and armed conflicts, this research finds that natural disasters are a significant predictor for decreases in the likelihood of wartime rape.Show less
Why do armed non-state groups initiate conflict after being part of a power-sharing arrangement ending a prior civil war? In response to the spike in civil wars after the end of the Cold War, peace...Show moreWhy do armed non-state groups initiate conflict after being part of a power-sharing arrangement ending a prior civil war? In response to the spike in civil wars after the end of the Cold War, peace agreements with power-sharing arrangements have long been argued to be the best civil war resolution, as a result, these have become a default tool in civil war resolution. However, in more than half of these cases, civil war did recur. Empirical research shows that power-sharing is indeed successful in stabilizing peace among former adversaries. The answer to why civil wars terminated by negotiated settlements with power-sharing start again is likely to be found within the groups included in the settlement. The problem is not so much the resolution of hostilities between (former) foes, but rather the rise of hostilities among former allies. This thesis argues that power-sharing might (temporarily) establish a balance of power between former adversaries, at the same time it negatively affects the balance of power within the groups, causing intra-group security dilemmas and rivalry leading to remobilization and initiation of conflict. This theoretical proposal is tested in a qualitative study of post-civil war Sudan and Tajikistan, by questioning how power-sharing affected the internal dynamics of the rebel groups. What made rebel groups initiate conflict again, or, why did they not?Show less
Advanced master thesis | Political Science (Advanced Master)
open access
Under which conditions do rebel groups in multi-party civil wars form alliances? This paper proposes that rebel groups, just as nation states, find themselves in an anarchic context and as a result...Show moreUnder which conditions do rebel groups in multi-party civil wars form alliances? This paper proposes that rebel groups, just as nation states, find themselves in an anarchic context and as a result are trapped in a multi tiered dilemma; on the one hand they face a security dilemma which leads them to strive for cooperation, on the other hand they face the commitment problem and fear betrayal. This paper looks at three variables ‘identity’, ‘ideology’ and ‘foreign support’ as factors that are expected to reduce uncertainty, thus should help overcome the commitment problem and ultimately increase the likelihood that an inter-rebel alliance will form. Looking at two cases of inter-rebel alliances that formed during the war in Darfur; the Sudan Liberation Army/Movement (SLA/M) and the National Redemption Front (NRF) this analysis presents an exploratory attempt to identify factors and conditions that make an inter-rebel alliance more likely.Show less
