This thesis analyzes the characteristics of China’s island-building activities in the South China Sea and assesses their impact on the regional stability of East Asia. The focus is on how these...Show moreThis thesis analyzes the characteristics of China’s island-building activities in the South China Sea and assesses their impact on the regional stability of East Asia. The focus is on how these activities have influenced regional stability by prompting a reaction from other regional actors which underlines a shift in diplomatic and defense postures. This thesis builds on the hypothesis that the military nature of these fortifications and China’s recent increase in assertive behaviors are building up the perception of threats among other regional actors, fueling distrust. This ultimately pushes these actors to implement countermeasures and disengage from dialogue with China. The thesis aims to test this hypothesis through a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods, including discourse and content analysis of government officials’ statements and policy documents. The research finds that key regional actors such as the Philippines, Japan, and the United States adopted, in response to China’s island-building, a similar pattern of declarative opposition, countermeasures, and diplomatic disengagement which reflects an increase in the perception of threats. This study concludes that although escalation of tensions may still be unlikely, the changes in the security environment highlight a decline in regional stability, which urges for a focus on diplomatic settlement of the South China Sea disputes.Show less
The South China Sea (SCS) is of global importance: it hosts one of the busiest trade routes in the world, and contains large amounts of natural resources such as fish, oil and gas as well. The SCS...Show moreThe South China Sea (SCS) is of global importance: it hosts one of the busiest trade routes in the world, and contains large amounts of natural resources such as fish, oil and gas as well. The SCS is also one of the most contested pools of water on the globe. Numerous countries claim (parts of) the SCS, and conflicting claims have resulted in a highly disputed environment. Mainly China has been assertive over the region, claiming a large part of the SCS with the so-called Nine Dash-line. This struggle over the resources in the SCS has caused states to move in rather destructive manners. Overfishing, (testing for) resource extraction and reforming islands have caused massive damage to the SCS and its marine populations. Due to lack of regulation and cooperation, local people as well as corporations are not only unhindered in taking destructive actions, they are incentivized to do so. The situation in the SCS is a dire one, fish populations are already at an all time low, putting the meals and jobs of millions of people at risk. A solution is called upon, but due to conflicting claims of countries, causing mistrust and increased militarization, this is not in sight. This thesis aims to explain the situation in the SCS, and will do so on two levels. First, it will explain the situation states find themselves in and which choices present themselves when operating in the SCS. As said, that situation creates an environment where locals as well as corporations find themselves being able to overexploit, thus eventually destroying the natural resources the SCS contains. Fish is one of the most overexploited thereof, with marine populations showing sharp decline in numbers since the last decades. Therefore this thesis will secondly present an analysis on what situation fishermen find themselves in. Both these parts will be explained through game theory. Multiple models will be presented to explain the interactions that countries and their populations find themselves in, and why they make the choices they make. Lastly, some propositions will be made on how to create an environment in which these problems can be overcome and create a well-managed sea.Show less
This thesis is about one of the basic concepts of International Relations, a highly valued theory that has been used to explain multiple cases in world history: the security dilemma. The originally...Show moreThis thesis is about one of the basic concepts of International Relations, a highly valued theory that has been used to explain multiple cases in world history: the security dilemma. The originally interstate concept was intended to explain those conflicts where states were involuntarily drawn to conflict. Not only has the security dilemma been applied to interstate conflict as it was originally intended, there is also a sizable literature available on the security dilemma applied to ethnic conflict. But in order to account for ethnic conflict the security dilemma has been stretched and a while authors like Posen, Kaufman, Melander and Roe assert that the conflict in Croatia and the former Yugoslavia was a consequence of the security dilemma. This thesis will illustrate the opposite, showing that the security dilemma neglects and fails to account for essential processes that have contributed to and even caused the ethnic violence in Croatia in 1991. The revisiting of the case study of the ethnic conflict between the Serbs and Croats in Croatia will serve to lay the foundations for the broader theoretical claim that the security dilemma cannot be successfully applied to intra-state conflict.Show less
