Somalia and Nigeria have been struggling economically and politically in the past decades, mainly due to the rise of the insurgent groups Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram. The counterinsurgency efforts by...Show moreSomalia and Nigeria have been struggling economically and politically in the past decades, mainly due to the rise of the insurgent groups Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram. The counterinsurgency efforts by both the Somali and the Nigerian government have been a topic of debate since the start of the conflict, discussing recommendations and best practices to bring back peace and prosperity in the region. This study, however, aimed to shift this debate to discuss the effectiveness of their counterinsurgency strategies, while focusing heavily on context. Thus, analyzing the contextual factors of Somalia and Nigeria through several dimensions has resulted in an understanding of how the context influences the outcome. These dimensions are economics, domestic politics and international politics. The findings of this research show that Somalia lacks the funds, political willingness and functioning governmental institutions to effectively engage in non-military counterinsurgency. However, due to international assistance, their military efforts to fight Al-Shabaab have been more successful. On the other hand, Nigeria has a stronger economy and more organized government, but faces the issue of unhappiness among the population leading to a rise in insurgency recruitment. Developmental and humanitarian aid provided by the international community can help the country in the long-term, as long as the unrest within the population is resolved.Show less
Since the full-scale Russian invasion began in 2022, more countries have provided Ukraine with lethal arms. A significant trend break for countries such as Germany, for example, therefore enjoying...Show moreSince the full-scale Russian invasion began in 2022, more countries have provided Ukraine with lethal arms. A significant trend break for countries such as Germany, for example, therefore enjoying much attention in society and literature. However, situations in which states will not provide arms are also of great political importance (Spindel, 2018). As these cases tend to be overlooked, this thesis examines the decision-making process of the Obama Administration that led to the decision not to provide Ukraine lethal assistance during his second term in the White House (2014-2017). Its focus is understanding the limitations undermining the ability of the patron's dilemma to explain the Obama case, as this study finds insufficient empirical evidence to use the theory to explain Obama's decision.Show less
The war in Yemen and the involvement of Saudi Arabia receive little academic and societal attention. This thesis sought to analyze the strategies of Saudi Arabia by comparing them to the well...Show moreThe war in Yemen and the involvement of Saudi Arabia receive little academic and societal attention. This thesis sought to analyze the strategies of Saudi Arabia by comparing them to the well-documented American intervention in Afghanistan. This results in the following research question: to what extent are Saudi Arabia in Yemen and the US in Afghanistan strategic in their approach to successful counterinsurgency? Based on five basic principles of COIN, the research found that both states were not strategic in their respective interventions.Show less
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was one that was marked by chaos and violence. There have been numerous inquisitions as to what wrong, from those within all sectors of the US government from...Show moreThe US withdrawal from Afghanistan was one that was marked by chaos and violence. There have been numerous inquisitions as to what wrong, from those within all sectors of the US government from State Department, Depart of Defense, to Congress. The findings of these organizations often result in playing the blame game, passing the fault on for the failed withdrawal onto a separate sector. This thesis examines why the withdrawal failed from a strategic standpoint rather than from an infrastructural outlook. The research highlights key aspect of the US withdrawal strategies employed in Iraq and Afghanistan to discover what factors differed between the two. This thesis recommends that the US reform it’s withdrawal strategy by finding solutions to combatting decreasing resilience of US presence caused by decreasing US capabilities during withdrawals.Show less
Russian actions in the Russo-Ukrainian War have been widely interpreted as a holistically coordinated, integrative approach to war – dubbed hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare has, in recent decades,...Show moreRussian actions in the Russo-Ukrainian War have been widely interpreted as a holistically coordinated, integrative approach to war – dubbed hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare has, in recent decades, been accepted as a strategic concept into the doctrinal documents of key Western military actors, including NATO and the EU. This paper argues that analysts misinterpret Russia’s operational, context-dependent opportunism in Ukraine as a holistic strategic method. So, in order to examine the extent to which Russian actions in Ukraine are actually strategic and whether the contemporary hybrid warfare concept improves or stifles that understanding, this paper examines the following: to what extent is Russian so-called hybrid warfare in Ukraine strategic? Three key events in the Russo-Ukrainian War are analysed using classical theory on strategy as a guiding framework, making use of a thematic case study analysis. It is shown that Russian actions in Ukraine are classically strategic to a highly limited extent because (1) battle is not always central and (2) Russian political coordination is either absent or opportunistic. Russian actions in Ukraine thus do not indicate a holistically integrated strategic method – which Western observers have eagerly dubbed hybrid warfare. Rather, the reality shows a method of operational opportunism enabled by a permissive political and battlespace-context. Hybrid warfare therefore does not merit adoption as a strategic concept, because it is not strategic. Using hybrid warfare as a strategic concept thus dilutes what we perceive to be strategic – and what we perceive to be warfare – proving the importance of testing new concepts against classical wisdom.Show less
The recent SolarWinds hack demonstrated the willingness and expertise of cyberspies to penetrate thousands of networks by targeting a single entity. This issue is becoming ever more worrying for...Show moreThe recent SolarWinds hack demonstrated the willingness and expertise of cyberspies to penetrate thousands of networks by targeting a single entity. This issue is becoming ever more worrying for the West due to the public attribution of the SolarWinds hack to the Russian government. The Russian government is becoming more assertive in cyberspace. One of their main activities is cyber espionage. Nevertheless, the cybersecurity literature is heavily focused on the technical aspects and makes assumptions for foreign entities’ motivations and intentions based on U.S. understanding of cyberspace. The applications of classical international relations theories to cyberspace phenomena, like cyber espionage, is scarce in the political science literature on this topic, which is mainly policy-oriented. Therefore, this paper will try to fill that gap by analysing Russia’s cyber espionage strategy through the prisms of offensive realism. The theory of Mearsheimer (2014) describes Moscow’s cyber espionage strategy to a certain extent, and it prescribes certain areas on which the Kremlin is most likely to focus. This research will benefit the academic and professional community alike, as it can provide additional tools for cyber espionage activities’ attribution.Show less
The advent of new technologies is continually changing the dynamics of political communication, making social media (especially Twitter) a direct linkage between politicians and the public,...Show moreThe advent of new technologies is continually changing the dynamics of political communication, making social media (especially Twitter) a direct linkage between politicians and the public, different from, for instance, TV interviews. Thus, it is generally believed that parties can take advantage of these new channels to spread their messages, and populist Eurosceptic parties are particularly expected to utilize them as a way to expand their support and visibility within the political field. Given this, further considerations could be raised on how these parties use social media. While some may argue that social media acts only as a complementary platform to maximize the reach of proposals, many scholars have pointed out that these parties use social media to make their discourse even more colloquial, mobilizing and radical. The research question to be addressed is: what is the discursive strategy of populist Eurosceptic parties on Twitter compared to the one on TV interviews?Show less
The increasing territorial losses of the Islamic State group (IS) in its Iraqi and Syrian strongholds have led numerous commentators to predict a surge in IS-related terrorist attacks in the West....Show moreThe increasing territorial losses of the Islamic State group (IS) in its Iraqi and Syrian strongholds have led numerous commentators to predict a surge in IS-related terrorist attacks in the West. While the media was quick to report “related” terrorist attacks and IS claims of responsibility, few have actually attempted to assess the groups’ actual involvement in these attacks. Moreover, it was taken for granted that the prime objective of IS’s Western terrorist campaign was to obtain the withdrawal of the coalition from its core terrain. But why continue waging a terrorist campaign against the West while it gives no results? Given the starting assumptions that IS is a rational, unitary actor, this thesis aims to uncover the “whys” of IS’s Western terrorist strategy and its imbrication with an insurgent strategy by empirically investigating whether the loss of territorial control in Iraq and Syria corresponds to changes in IS’s degree of involvement in “related” terrorist attacks in the West and in its claiming strategy. While the data does not support the above-mentioned hypothesis, it indicates a clear change in the group’s claiming strategy. This article concludes that IS’s Western terrorist strategy allows it to showcase its politico-military supremacy to attract die-hard sympathisers and that the interlacing of IS’s strategy of terrorism with its main strategy of “glocal” insurgency points to IS being a product of glocalisation processes of de-territorialisation and re-territorialisation.Show less
Electoral competition has been an essential part of acquiring the American presidency since Jackson’s election of 1828. Competition made strategic considerations to ensure the maximization of...Show moreElectoral competition has been an essential part of acquiring the American presidency since Jackson’s election of 1828. Competition made strategic considerations to ensure the maximization of electoral support increasingly relevant. One phenomenon that traditionally dominated strategic thinking during American elections is ‘Outsiderism’: during campaigns candidates deliberately assume an outsider position in the electoral arena, not on the basis of genuine motivations, but for the categorical purpose of vote-maximization. Despite the fact that Outsiderism has constantly been deployed over the course of history, it has yet to receive scholarly attention. This thesis, therefore, offers an analysis of Outsiderism in the realm of American presidential campaigns. It investigates Outsiderism’s roots in the subsequent campaigns of Jackson and Van Buren through an analysis of their respective campaign biographies. Furthermore, it links Outsiderism to the framework of Rational Choice Theory, which elucidates the rather manipulative motives that induce Outsiderism. Thus, this thesis seeks to clarify to what extent Jackson and Van Buren conformed to Outsiderism during their campaign. Why did they as would-be presidents see the need to present themselves (to a certain extent) as outsiders to American politics? The results suggest that both Jackson and Van Buren as presidential candidates employed Outsiderism, although Jackson to a lesser extent than Van Buren, because they deemed it as advantageous for garnering the required support to get elected. As a result, they have paved the way for a campaign strategy that has remained dominant until today.Show less
Sinds de uitgave van Luttwaks boek The grand strategy of the Roman Empire in 1976 is er een historisch debat gaande, waarin de centrale vraag is of de Romeinse keizers een grand strategy, een...Show moreSinds de uitgave van Luttwaks boek The grand strategy of the Roman Empire in 1976 is er een historisch debat gaande, waarin de centrale vraag is of de Romeinse keizers een grand strategy, een bepaalde strategie, volgden. In deze scriptie wordt de verdediging van de Romeinse oostgrens ten tijde van het Principaat en de Parthen (27 v.C.-224 n.C.) onder de loep genomen, waarvoor gekeken wordt naar de keizerlijke strategieën en het functioneren van het Romeinse leger in het Romeinse oosten, om uiteindelijk een bijdrage te kunnen leveren aan het grand strategy-debat. Daaruit blijkt dat vanaf Augustus een zeker beleid te zien is, dat zich uitte in het opschuiven van de Romeinse oostgrens richting de Eufraat. Vanaf het moment dat er een redelijke rechte oostgrens gecreëerd was, die deels langs de Eufraat liep, werd deze gehandhaafd. Toen de Parthen echter agressiever werden creëerden Marcus Aurelius en Septimius Severus een Romeins bolwerk in Mesopotamië, waardoor de Romeinen een sterke strategische positie verkregen. Het Romeinse leger bleek dankzij de hulp- en bondgenotentroepen die tot zijn beschikking stonden en de aanpassingen aan de in het oosten aanwezige vijanden goed te kunnen functioneren. Aan de hand van deze conclusies kan men wel degelijk stellen dat de Romeinse keizers een grand strategy hadden. From the moment that Luttwak’s book The grand strategy of the Roman Empire was published in 1976 there has been an ongoing historical debate, in which the central question is whether Roman emperors did or did not follow a grand strategy. In this thesis the defence of the Roman eastern border in the time of the Principate and the Parthians (27 BC-224 AD) has been examined, so that in the end a position can be taken in the grand strategy-debate. To attain this end this study has been examining the imperial strategies and how the Roman army functioned in the east. The results are that from Augustus on a certain policy can be deduced: the Roman border was slowly extended to the Euphrates. From the moment that the border ran a relatively straight course from north to south, partly running along the Euphrates, it was kept that way. That changed when the Parthians got more aggressive; Marcus Aurelius and Septimius Severus created a Roman bulwark in Mesopotamia, which gave the Romans a strong strategic position. The Roman army was very efficient thanks to the many auxiliary and allied troops in it and the adaptations to its enemies. Looking at these conclusions it can be concluded that the Roman emperors did have a grand strategy.Show less
