The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) may be supporting the violation of the UN Charter and Geneva Conventions constituted by the illegal occupation of Western Sahara...Show moreThe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) may be supporting the violation of the UN Charter and Geneva Conventions constituted by the illegal occupation of Western Sahara by accepting extraterritorial nationally determined contributions (NDC) reports. Through the use of theory-testing process-tracing, this thesis investigates why the UNFCCC’s acceptance of extraterritorial NDC reports might influence the legitimacy of occupations. By conducting a case study of Morocco, the theoretical argument of this thesis is developed: Occupying powers seek legitimacy over their occupation by partaking in international organization processes which subsequently are approved by the international organization. This approval dissuades other states from objecting to the occupation and attempts to legitimate it, thereby perpetuating the status-quo which ultimately increases the external sovereignty of the occupation. By evaluating NDC reports, reports by the Western Sahara Resource Watch, and speeches at the UNFCCC, this study has identified the presence of the causal mechanism. Hence, this thesis contributes to the scholarly literature by addressing the influence that international organizations have on the legitimacy of occupations, a field that so far has gained little attention in academia.Show less
Despite worldwide reports of former child recruits engaging in post-conflict criminal activity, no one has sought to systematically analyze whether this turn of events was a consequence of their...Show moreDespite worldwide reports of former child recruits engaging in post-conflict criminal activity, no one has sought to systematically analyze whether this turn of events was a consequence of their child soldiering past. In fact, any attempt to empirically verify this would have to address the lack of theoretical foundations on which to rest. Indeed, theories about adult post-conflict crime cannot help mapping juvenile crime in the same context, as they are bound by age-specific assumptions. This thesis therefore addresses, and contributes to filling, both these empirical and theoretical gaps. I hypothesize that wartime child soldiering increases post-conflict juvenile crime through two complementary mechanisms – the long-term effects of a full socialization into violence and relative economic grievances – and further suggest that both are mediated by gender. Running a negative binomial regression using existing datasets enables me to glean supporting evidence for this hypothesis, as well as preliminary evidence speaking to the socialization mechanism. Yet, overall, the findings remain somewhat inconclusive due to limitations in the data. I thus call for more research – including qualitative work and original data collection – to ground them.Show less
Recent studies have found a strong correlation between covid-19 and higher conflict intensity. Yet, scant attention has been paid to the ways in which covid-19 increased the conflict intensity of...Show moreRecent studies have found a strong correlation between covid-19 and higher conflict intensity. Yet, scant attention has been paid to the ways in which covid-19 increased the conflict intensity of pre-existing conflicts. Therefore, this is the gap that this thesis aims to fill. From the disaster-conflict literature, and the covid-19-conflict literature more specifically, I derive three possible causal mechanisms concerning 1) state capacity 2) conflict mitigation, and 3) foreign backers. Consequently, I test these mechanisms with the use of process tracing in the context of the Libyan conflict. The evidence reveals that all three mechanisms were partly present, but did not exactly function as theorized. Indeed, in contrast to the hypothesized causal mechanism, no evidence is found for the suspension of military activities by the state, suggesting that the emergence of covid-19 did not weaken state capacity. Besides, the suspension of conflict mitigating activities and the involvement of foreign backers led to an intensification of violence, despite the continued attention for the conflict during the pandemic. More research, therefore, is necessary to further explore the mechanisms linking pandemics and conflict intensity in pre-existing conflicts.Show less
During the last decades, climate change appeared at the centre of the academic, political, and societal debate as it is a phenomenon that occurs to be increasingly urgent, given the existence of...Show moreDuring the last decades, climate change appeared at the centre of the academic, political, and societal debate as it is a phenomenon that occurs to be increasingly urgent, given the existence of environmental degradation and extreme weather events. Although developed states from the global north have contributed to climate change significantly, emerging economies that previously were part of the global south, cause rising greenhouse gas emissions as well. The problem requires a collective approach in terms of shared responsibility and multilateral cooperation; however, the architecture of global climate governance portrays to be fragmented. Resulting from the fact that the topic has not received much scholarly attention, this research seeks – by means of a thematic content analysis – to investigate how the trend towards centralised global climate governance through the Paris Agreement has changed the perspective on environmental policy. The research builds on the theoretical approach of liberalism, as well as the spectrum model that explains the degree of centralisation in climate cooperation. Based on the case of China as the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter, it can be concluded that after the Paris Agreement entered into force, the nation’s perspective on environmental policy shifted politically/strategically and ideologically/socially.Show less
China’s dominance in the rare earth elements (REE) market and the growing importance of applications of REE are grounds for concern about the security of the supply chain of REE. Although...Show moreChina’s dominance in the rare earth elements (REE) market and the growing importance of applications of REE are grounds for concern about the security of the supply chain of REE. Although multilateral cooperation could mitigate the supply security problems on the REE market, only little multilateral cooperation takes place on REE, with existing literature on other natural resources suggesting that securitisation might impact the willingness of states to cooperate. Therefore, this thesis poses the question: ‘How does the securitisation of REE by states impact multilateral cooperation?’ Through discourse and document analysis of the case study of Australia, it argues that in this case the securitisation of REE is accompanied by multilateral cooperation that is towards the middle of the spectrum from soft to hard law. This study provides further supports that multilateral cooperation in the area of REE is limited.Show less
While there is a growing body of research on the effects of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on the onset of intrastate conflict, the effects of social media access have not been...Show moreWhile there is a growing body of research on the effects of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on the onset of intrastate conflict, the effects of social media access have not been analyzed thoroughly based on a large N, cross-country study. In this study, the impact of social media access on the onset of intrastate conflict is assessed, using country-year data (2000-2020) for 173 countries. It was hypothesized that social media access leads to an increase in the onset of intrastate conflict, ceteris paribus. Additionally, it was also hypothesized that the effect of social media access on the onset of intrastate conflict is stronger in more ethnically homogenous countries. These hypotheses were tested using a binomial logistic regression model. The main results of the analysis indicate there is only a significant correlation between Internet access and the onset of non-ethnic intrastate conflict. These results suggest that intrastate conflict is too broad of a category and should be disaggregated into smaller subgroups to develop more accurate empirical analyses. This research advances not only the study of intrastate conflict onset but also the academic discussion on the effects of social media access.Show less
The European Union (EU) has a substantially more united foreign policy than any other international organisation. Said expansive joint foreign policy has developed in an inhospitable setting where...Show moreThe European Union (EU) has a substantially more united foreign policy than any other international organisation. Said expansive joint foreign policy has developed in an inhospitable setting where its members hold widely different interests and perspectives on joint foreign policy. Given states’ tendency to jealously guard sovereignty over their foreign policy, how the EU’s foreign policy structures and instruments have been aggregated remains unclear. This paper addresses this via the question “Through what mechanism did the EU aggregate its foreign policy between 2014 and 2021?” and applies a modified ‘Failing Forward’ framework where foreign policy is aggregated via a process of problem-solving by problem-making resulting in an iterative institutionalisation causal mechanism. To analyse whether this mechanism is present, this study adopts a theory-testing process-tracing research method on the development of EU foreign policy structures and instruments from 2014 to 2021. It argues that the aggregation of the EU’s foreign policy relies on iterative intergovernmental and neofunctional processes establishing an integrative causal feedback loop. Examining how the EU aggregates foreign policy is valuable to both EU policymakers and actors within other international organisations seeking greater unison in their foreign policy and contributes to research on international integration in intergovernmental settings.Show less
China’s rise in political power over the last decades has been reflected by its growing international influence, e.g., in international organisations like the World Bank or the United Nations....Show moreChina’s rise in political power over the last decades has been reflected by its growing international influence, e.g., in international organisations like the World Bank or the United Nations. Especially its role in the UN Security Council is of importance as China holds one of the permanent seats. One important agenda item of the SC is peacekeeping operations. China’s peacekeeping policy has attracted significant scholarly attention. However, there is a theoretical gap as previous research has not yet focused on the influence of institutions on China, in particular its peacekeeping approach. This study aims to fill this gap by looking at how China’s increase in political power affects its peacekeeping policy. In order to answer this question, this paper connects prior research findings with an analysis of UNSC meeting records on peacekeeping operations from 2000-2003 to explore China’s evolving peacekeeping policy. The analysis provides mixed results: While there is clear evidence for a path dependence and the critical juncture, there is ambiguity regarding a change in China’s peacekeeping policy after 2001.Show less
On December 17, 2021, the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation published two draft treaties that demand various security guarantees from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the...Show moreOn December 17, 2021, the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation published two draft treaties that demand various security guarantees from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States. This meant that Russia wanted to reform the post-Cold War European security architecture. Upon the rejection of these proposals, Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Despite extensive scholarly research on Russia’s stance regarding European security, the debate revolves around realist and neo-realist perspectives which are not sufficient in comprehending the fundamental reasons behind why Russia wants to do so. For that reason, this thesis introduces a new theoretical approach called the ontological security theory. By adopting a post-structuralist methodology and discourse analysis, it argues that Moscow feels ontologically insecure due to the divergence between Moscow’s identity and its role in the post-Cold War European security architecture. Therefore, Russia sets its foreign policy for the “recognition” of its Self by the West, which is necessary for ontological security. The findings of this thesis also reveal the significance of identity in international relations and politics, as it brings alternative explanations to arguments put forward by grand IR theories regarding a phenomenon.Show less
In Lisbon 2007, the European Union (EU) established a new policy called the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). With Brexit, the EU lost an important member state in political, military and...Show moreIn Lisbon 2007, the European Union (EU) established a new policy called the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). With Brexit, the EU lost an important member state in political, military and financial terms, potentially harming the CSDP. EU foreign policy and the impact of member states leaving IOs have attracted much scholarly attention. Previous research has been published before the actual exit date or during the negotiations and therefore has not yet focused on the impact of Brexit on the CSDP. This paper aims to answer the question “How does Brexit influence the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy?” via a theory-testing process-tracing method. The single case study uses the theory of historical institutionalism. While the analysis provides evidence for path dependency and a critical juncture in CSDP development, there is ambiguity regarding the actual long-term impact of Brexit on the CSDP. Just months ago, the world was shaken by an unprecedented war in Ukraine, forcing the EU to accelerate its policy adjustment within this field. Which means that it is difficult to give an absolute answer to the RQ itself. However, it makes the outcome of the researched policy adjustment process quite clear. Keywords: Brexit, CSDP, defence, EU, securityShow less
While the OPCW has worked successfully since 1997 to end chemical warfare, this is not the case when looking at Syria. The organization made efforts like disarming the country from chemicals, but...Show moreWhile the OPCW has worked successfully since 1997 to end chemical warfare, this is not the case when looking at Syria. The organization made efforts like disarming the country from chemicals, but when this step fell short, the organization was unable to thoroughly analyze and make decisions about the attacks that followed. Although it had the resources to find more information and take actions like recommending collective measures or sanctioning Syria with the help of the UN, the OPCW still failed. It is alleged that some works of the OPCW were perceived as a threat to the national interests of Russia and the United States. As a result, these countries attempted to control the OPCW, which led to this failure. To prove this, this thesis answers the following research question: How did the United States and Russia attempt to control the OPCW’s work on the Syrian case from 2013 to 2021 to safeguard their national interest? To analyze this question, this thesis uses the Principal-Agent theory in the context of directed content analysis. In this way, this thesis aims to contribute to academia by unraveling how the idea of controlling an international organization is applied in this case study.Show less
Despite the common belief that alliances are reliable, states abrogate their alliance commitments frequently. Previous studies reveal that various factors motivate states to take opportunistic...Show moreDespite the common belief that alliances are reliable, states abrogate their alliance commitments frequently. Previous studies reveal that various factors motivate states to take opportunistic behaviors, and the change in an alliance member’s military power is the most influential cause. Nevertheless, existing literature provides insufficient delineation on how the power change leads states to violate their alliance commitments. In this paper, I unravel the causal process of the abrogation of alliance commitment by analyzing the German-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact and the French-Czechoslovak Alliance using process-tracing. I provide evidence that the change of power reshapes states' preferences by creating a time-inconsistency problem, leading them to pursue the new preference of violating the alliance commitment. Although other minor elements contribute to states’ cost-benefit calculations, results show that the change in military capability affects the cost of honoring the commitment. When an alliance member’s power increases, the cost of self-defense reduces, while a decrease in power raises the cost of assisting an ally. An analysis of the aforementioned cases supports the time-inconsistency problem model in alliance politics. The time-inconsistency problem model contributes to sharpening the existing knowledge of alliance politics.Show less
This paper analyses the relationship between interest groups and multilateral institutions by using the theory of population ecology (PE). This will be done by analysing the power of feminist...Show moreThis paper analyses the relationship between interest groups and multilateral institutions by using the theory of population ecology (PE). This will be done by analysing the power of feminist lobbyist versus other lobbyist representatives in the negotiation process of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Despite strong advocative power of these feminist lobbyists and their desire to incorporate gender in all goals, six goals have no mention of gender. These gender-blind goals have been assumed by political academia to be a failure of the feminists’ mobilization power. By using a qualitative case study method with explaining-outcome process-tracing this paper shows that it was in fact a strategic choice of the WMG to focus on certain core issues and less on environmental issues. This mechanism is because of the high involvement of civil society in the creation of the SDGs, which forced the WMG to specialize on crucial issues. Because the theory of PE was studied only on democracies before, this paper extends the theory to also fit for multilateral institutions. While the United Nations applaud the introduction of more interest groups to increase their inclusivity, this paper shows why this increase in civil society can also be considered a disadvantage.Show less
Primary goods make the world go round, and one that makes cars go round is platinum, which is needed in exhaust catalysts. It is a valuable precious metal, and 80 percent of all of the world’s...Show morePrimary goods make the world go round, and one that makes cars go round is platinum, which is needed in exhaust catalysts. It is a valuable precious metal, and 80 percent of all of the world’s platinum can be found in South Africa. Despite this, very few South Africans actually benefit from its lucrative platinum mining sector. In fact, this sector appears to cause more problems for most of the people in mining regions, from bad working conditions to air and water pollution. In this thesis I will argue that the lucrativeness of the platinum mining sector and its many negative externalities are related through the Resource Curse. I hypothesize that the owners of platinum mines will use a specific form of lobbying – cronyism, also known as the ‘revolving door’ – to influence members of the National Assembly of South Africa to adopt policies favorable to the mining sector. My research will focus specifically on the case of the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act of 2002 (MPRDA).Show less
The literature on women in state-rebel peace negotiations has profusely tackled women’s roles in peace processes. It has also overwhelmingly focused on women's formal or informal involvement at the...Show moreThe literature on women in state-rebel peace negotiations has profusely tackled women’s roles in peace processes. It has also overwhelmingly focused on women's formal or informal involvement at the negotiation table. However, it has underexplored the impact of guerrilla women on negotiations. More strikingly, very few studies have explored the link between women’s presence in the ranks of a rebel group and negotiations between the state and that rebel group. To address this gap, process tracing is used in the Salvadoran civil war (1979-1992) to answer the following question: how does the presence of women in a rebel group impact peace negotiations between the state and that rebel group? I argue that the presence of women in a rebel group makes the state willing to initiate negotiations. In fact, a rebel group that recruits women establishes a bond with the local population and enhances its reputation among external audiences that value gender equality. This, in turn, strengthens the rebel group’s position vis-à-vis the state, especially if the latter is indiscriminately violent towards civilians. The empirical findings match the theoretical expectations. This study has notable implications for scholarship and policy because it adds to the literature on intra-state negotiations and highlights the importance of considering the challenges of guerrilla women when framing the peace process.Show less
