Despite worldwide reports of former child recruits engaging in post-conflict criminal activity, no one has sought to systematically analyze whether this turn of events was a consequence of their...Show moreDespite worldwide reports of former child recruits engaging in post-conflict criminal activity, no one has sought to systematically analyze whether this turn of events was a consequence of their child soldiering past. In fact, any attempt to empirically verify this would have to address the lack of theoretical foundations on which to rest. Indeed, theories about adult post-conflict crime cannot help mapping juvenile crime in the same context, as they are bound by age-specific assumptions. This thesis therefore addresses, and contributes to filling, both these empirical and theoretical gaps. I hypothesize that wartime child soldiering increases post-conflict juvenile crime through two complementary mechanisms – the long-term effects of a full socialization into violence and relative economic grievances – and further suggest that both are mediated by gender. Running a negative binomial regression using existing datasets enables me to glean supporting evidence for this hypothesis, as well as preliminary evidence speaking to the socialization mechanism. Yet, overall, the findings remain somewhat inconclusive due to limitations in the data. I thus call for more research – including qualitative work and original data collection – to ground them.Show less
Recent studies have found a strong correlation between covid-19 and higher conflict intensity. Yet, scant attention has been paid to the ways in which covid-19 increased the conflict intensity of...Show moreRecent studies have found a strong correlation between covid-19 and higher conflict intensity. Yet, scant attention has been paid to the ways in which covid-19 increased the conflict intensity of pre-existing conflicts. Therefore, this is the gap that this thesis aims to fill. From the disaster-conflict literature, and the covid-19-conflict literature more specifically, I derive three possible causal mechanisms concerning 1) state capacity 2) conflict mitigation, and 3) foreign backers. Consequently, I test these mechanisms with the use of process tracing in the context of the Libyan conflict. The evidence reveals that all three mechanisms were partly present, but did not exactly function as theorized. Indeed, in contrast to the hypothesized causal mechanism, no evidence is found for the suspension of military activities by the state, suggesting that the emergence of covid-19 did not weaken state capacity. Besides, the suspension of conflict mitigating activities and the involvement of foreign backers led to an intensification of violence, despite the continued attention for the conflict during the pandemic. More research, therefore, is necessary to further explore the mechanisms linking pandemics and conflict intensity in pre-existing conflicts.Show less
Due to climate change and rising temperatures, the world is more often facing extreme weather conditions like drought. Such conditions of water scarcity especially cause problems in countries...Show moreDue to climate change and rising temperatures, the world is more often facing extreme weather conditions like drought. Such conditions of water scarcity especially cause problems in countries dependent on agriculture, where failed harvests can cause negative income shocks and grievance development, influencing conflict. Focusing on the relationship between conflict intensity and water scarcity, this research explores the case of the Syrian civil war from 2011-2017, finding that over-time differences in temperatures can explain monthly variations in number of deaths. This research thereby confirms the fact that rising temperatures can lead to more intense conflict and concludes with brief discussion of policy recommendations to tackle drought-related conflict.Show less
