In the latest presidential elections of Turkey, which was realized on August 2014, Selahattin Demirtas, the co-leader of pro-Kurdish ethnic party HDP, got 9,76% of the votes. Compared to previous...Show moreIn the latest presidential elections of Turkey, which was realized on August 2014, Selahattin Demirtas, the co-leader of pro-Kurdish ethnic party HDP, got 9,76% of the votes. Compared to previous elections, this meant fifty percent increase in votes of the party. Thus, the main problem of the thesis is that in Turkey, considering the vote limitation of an ethnic party in a historical context, how could the noticeable rise in votes of HDP’s candidate Demirtas could be explained? The thesis will argue that there are several factors which contributed to the success of the HDP. First, for the last few years Kurdish political movement has been following a new strategy with which the party abandons Kurdish ethnic party claims and aims to become a party of Turkey, with increasing democratic modernization emphasis. Second, Gezi movement which occurred in 2013, showed the societal base of leftist movements in Turkey. Democratic modernization of HDP was in line with the ideals of Gezi movement and Demirtas successfully used the discourse of Gezi, whereby he enhanced the electorate base of his party. Lastly, the absence of 10% election threshold had an important role in voting behavior of the electorate and this factor had positive influence on the vote share of HDP.Show less
This thesis examines the relationship between party system change, particularly fragmentation, and the quality of democratic representation in Peru. Accordingly the main inquiry is “how does party...Show moreThis thesis examines the relationship between party system change, particularly fragmentation, and the quality of democratic representation in Peru. Accordingly the main inquiry is “how does party system fragmentation influence the quality of democratic representation?” Additionally, it aims to establish whether party system fragmentation contributes to what Scott Mainwaring (2006) has called a ‘crisis of democratic representation’. The abrupt collapse of the party system in the late 1980s and the state of democratic representation in Peru from 1990 onwards provide an ideal case study. Party system fragmentation and the quality of democratic representation are operationalized based on three identified indicators each. In the case of the former, competition, rootedness and the number of parties allows us to determine the fragmentation of the Peruvian party system. In the case of the latter, the emergence of outsiders, clientelist linkages and trust in institutions establish the quality of democratic representation. These indicators are observed from 1980 to 2011 in order establish the significant temporal development of the examined phenomena in Peru. This thesis finds that party system fragmentation in Peru has serious consequences for democratic representation. Based on the examination of the indicators of Party system fragmentation, the party system in Peru is characterized by instability. The predominance of different mechanisms of representation, beset by instability, allows observing the deterioration of the formal representation linkages between the electorate and their representatives, thus significantly affecting the quality of democratic representation. The Peruvian case highlights the importance of analyzing the party system and democratic representation as two significant phenomena that are interconnected and that, if in crisis, presuppose one of the most important academic challenges in Latin America, which is to comprehend the current crisis of democratic representation in the region.Show less
In this thesis the ways in which power is shaped in the Arctic among the ‘Arctic five’ states are analyzed. It is argued that the Arctic is a multipolar region, in which Russia is the most dominant...Show moreIn this thesis the ways in which power is shaped in the Arctic among the ‘Arctic five’ states are analyzed. It is argued that the Arctic is a multipolar region, in which Russia is the most dominant and other actors adopt strategies towards Russia such as soft balancing, bandwagoning, and appeasement. The thesis shows that traditional conceptions of power do not apply unequivocally to the Arctic region, because it is hard to control effectively due to its unique geographical composition. Power in the Arctic is based on the recognition of sovereign rights over an area, which will give states economic opportunities (control over waterways and resources) in the future due to melting ice. The ideal of permanence underlying modern sovereignty is absent in the changing Arctic, and sovereign rights for exploitation of an area do not give states actual sovereignty. Sovereignty disputes are therefore often unclear and create interesting power dynamics. They are resolved through institutional procedures based on international law and political geography, yet states have opportunities for negotiation and can adopt their own viewpoints on sovereignty based on what suits the national interest. Thus the Arctic provides a unique example of ‘structural power’ and the interaction between structure and agency. Due to the ever-changing nature of the Arctic, states’ interests are more future-oriented than elsewhere. The thesis concludes that while security and sovereignty have become more important in the Arctic in recent years, there is no ‘security dilemma’ because capacity building does not directly threaten other states, and military conflict does not lead to gains and is highly unlikely. Security issues are rather more specific and less concerned with warfare, and more with the environment and emergencies. The difficulty of operating in the Arctic environment compels states to cooperate through international institutions, but the ‘Arctic five’ do this to further their national interests. The interdependence of the Arctic with the system-level is traced, and it is found that states are limited in their options in the Arctic due to mutual commitments on a global scale and possible precedent effects of agreements in the Arctic.Show less
Regional integration is on the political agenda in all parts of the world. During the time of post-colonial development and liberation struggles, Southern Africa saw its share of attempts at closer...Show moreRegional integration is on the political agenda in all parts of the world. During the time of post-colonial development and liberation struggles, Southern Africa saw its share of attempts at closer economic and political ties between states within the region. Today, the dominant regional organization in Southern Africa is the Southern African Development Community. Many regional organizations in the developing world, including SADC, explicitly state that a large part of the regional integration project is towards a goal of attracting an increase in foreign direct investment. The ability to attract FDI is based on various factors; covering many of these is the combined level of perceived political risk. Economic and political instability, social unrest, ethnic and military conflict, corruption in government, the threat of expropriation and breaches of contract; political risk is a multi-faceted concept. The thesis identifies what types of political risks are prevalent in the Southern African region. The research focus addresses what SADC as a regional actor has contributed towards lowering the levels of political risk in specific countries and parts of the region. The thesis demonstrates that as theoretical assumptions and empirical evidence argue that regional integration is positive for the ability to attract FDI, Southern African countries face many obstacles on the way towards a fully integrated economic community. Meanwhile, the prospects for peace and security in the region are better at present than twenty years ago. The establishment and maintenance of legal, security and financial frameworks that would add to securing the interests of both the foreign investors and the host country and government are often lacking. Furthermore, the implementation of regional institutions have been hampered by various factors, including the member states’ own interests and a general unwillingness towards ceding sovereignty to transnational institutions . The role of South Africa as a regional hegemon and key policy-maker within SADC is discussed in order to further examine the regional dynamics in Southern Africa.Show less
In this thesis, the author observes the puzzle of escalation and de-escalation in irregular war, accounting for both the strong and weak actor, using a Strategic Theory (i.e. Clausewitzian logic)...Show moreIn this thesis, the author observes the puzzle of escalation and de-escalation in irregular war, accounting for both the strong and weak actor, using a Strategic Theory (i.e. Clausewitzian logic) narrative. He focuses on two arguments: (1) domestic politics cause friction for both actors, (2) international pressure (from state and non-state actors) causes friction for both actors. This international pressure also includes image. Using a variety of observation techniques and limited quantitative analysis, the author finds that (1) domestic political rivalry facilitates escalation for the strong and the weak actor and has no bearing on de-escalation; escalation erodes and diminishes domestic political rivalry. (2) International pressure and image facilitates de-escalation on both sides in order to maintain a positive image. (3) The weak actor must start de-escalating in response to the strong actor’s de-escalation; else it may very well damage its own capacity to achieve its political objectives. He then discusses the policy implications that this conclusion has, most notably (1) the way that policy-makers may change their behavior in order to improve their own image, or the image of the actor they represent. (2) They may or may not be more cautious when dealing with domestic rivalry, as they may seek to avoid escalating, and would rather tackle the actual cause of domestic rivalry. Opportunities for future research in the thesis. Most notable opportunities for future research include (1) the relationship between strong actor de-escalation and weak actor de-escalation and the way the former enables the latter. (2) The effect of the situation on the ground, rather than on the purely political level, on each actor’s decision to de-escalate.Show less
In late January 1996, Greece and Turkey were literally hours from conflict after the landing of a helicopter with Turkish journalists on one of the two rocky islets in Northeastern Aegean Sea which...Show moreIn late January 1996, Greece and Turkey were literally hours from conflict after the landing of a helicopter with Turkish journalists on one of the two rocky islets in Northeastern Aegean Sea which are known in Greek as Imia and in Turkish as Kardak. Turkey’s intentions to dispute the Greek sovereignty of those islets led to the biggest crisis between the two countries after the Turkish invasion to Cyprus. The mediation of the US finally brought the deterrence of the war which was really close as Greek and Turkish troops had gathered on the islets and close to them. The fact that there was political instability in both countries at the time of the crisis creates a big question that is still to be answered: where the reasons of this crisis political? Domestic problems sometimes lead to external conflicts and the probability of the existence of a relationship between the domestic unrest mainly in Turkey and incidentally in Greece and the Imia/Kardak crisis still remains vague. This research will try to clarify the reasons of the Imia/Kardak crisis and to examine whether the diversionary theory of war has an application in it or not. Through the analysis of this theory and the description of the political situation in both countries we will try to come to a conclusion about the political dimension of this crisis.Show less
This thesis is inspired by the will to understand why the international community stands by while mass atrocities are committed by the Syrian government. My research question ‘Why does the...Show moreThis thesis is inspired by the will to understand why the international community stands by while mass atrocities are committed by the Syrian government. My research question ‘Why does the international community not intervene in the humanitarian crisis in Syria?’ forms the premise for this thesis. My main argument is that because of the non-consensus within the international community about R2P as a norm, there is a lack of political will to intervene in the situation in Syria. Furthermore, I argue that this lack of consensus is caused by the protection of the national interests of the states involved, especially the security of their sovereignty. These arguments are substantiated by the acceptance of my hypotheses which are based on the core assumptions of realism, liberalism, and constructivism. These hypotheses show that the protection of sovereignty, the lack of a common interest, and the non-consensus about R2P are crucial aspects in the decision not to intervene in the humanitarian crisis in Syria.Show less
During the Cold War, the United States and Soviet Union demonstrated a shared interest in a military status quo in Earth orbit and exercised considerable restraint by not placing weapons in space....Show moreDuring the Cold War, the United States and Soviet Union demonstrated a shared interest in a military status quo in Earth orbit and exercised considerable restraint by not placing weapons in space. However, despite ever-increasing state dependency on civilian space applications, militarisation efforts have accelerated in recent decades, heightening fears that one or more states may deploy space weapons. Indeed, the catastrophic consequences of a space war appear to provide the world with an interest in keeping space conflict free but key space power states have been reluctant to implement a prohibition on weapons in space. To understand why, this paper analyses the history of space militarisation and arms control and the two most prominent explanations offered to date – that the United States has acted as a non-status quo state and that international governance has failed to deliver on its promise. Finding these unsatisfactory, the paper proposes that the absence of a space weapons prohibition is instead best understood as the product of security dilemma dynamics. These can lead even benign states with significant common interests to a self-reinforcing spiral of insecurity driven by uncertainty and fear.Show less
This thesis deals with the issue of the Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunb Islands. These islands are disputed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, who currently occupies them, and the United Arab...Show moreThis thesis deals with the issue of the Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunb Islands. These islands are disputed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, who currently occupies them, and the United Arab Emirates, who to this day claim the islands as theirs. The strategic significance of the islands is not to be underestimated, as they lay directly in the main shipping lanes through which a significant portion of the world’s oil is transported. This paper has looked at the historical events that shaped the situation today, with a focus on the period between independence of the United Arab Emirates and the mid-1990’s. This timeframe is further divided in three parts, the events surrounding independence, the period of upheaval attempted détente during the late 1970’s and 1980’s and finally the reescalation of the issue after the First Gulf War of 1991.Using the theory of offensive realism as devised by John Mearsheimer and the associated concepts of power balancing, buck passing, off shore balancing and the role of the off shore balancer the events during this period have been analysed to answer the question whether this theory can explain the absence of warfare between the U.A.E. and Iran. Even though at times the situation seemed to be heading for war, the simple discrepancy between the capabilities of the U.A.E. and Iran resulted in a carefully balanced status quo that has been maintained since 1971 thereby weakening the key offensive realist assumption that the offensive is always profitable.Show less
