This research focused on analysing the behaviour of ethnic leaders in autocratic ethnofederal regimes during changing economic situations of economic growth and contraction and in changing...Show moreThis research focused on analysing the behaviour of ethnic leaders in autocratic ethnofederal regimes during changing economic situations of economic growth and contraction and in changing political landscape of democratization and autocratization. More specifically, the focus was on the Russian Federation and its two ethnic republics: Republic Sakha and the Republic of Chuvashia. The cases were picked to represent a wealthy and a poor region of Russia. The analysis was conducted through qualitative content analysis of primary sourced speeches and secondary sourced interpretations of speeches given by ethnic elites such as heads of the republic, other political figures, or important business elites. The analysis was organized into two periods of democratization 1997-2000 and autocratization 2008-2011, and 4 sub-periods: 1997-1998 and 2008-2009 (economic contraction periods), and 1999-2000 and 2010-2011 (economic growth periods). The results found that Sakha as the wealthier republic is generally more secessionist during periods of economic contraction during both democratization and autocratization. Support was also found for the expectation that ethnic elites will prove more secessionist during democratization periods.Show less
This thesis explores the impact of public opinion on the establishment of deradicalization programs for returning foreign fighters. The issue of returning foreign fighters has become increasingly...Show moreThis thesis explores the impact of public opinion on the establishment of deradicalization programs for returning foreign fighters. The issue of returning foreign fighters has become increasingly relevant in recent years and governments worldwide have been struggling to reintegrate them back into society. By implementing a bottom-up approach to deradicalization initiatives, this thesis contributes to the body of literature on counterterrorism and sheds light on the potential influence of public opinion on the implementation of deradicalization programs. Agency theory, which forms the foundation of the study, contends that there will be a weak implementation when public opinion is against a deradicalization program, but the government is in favor of it. To test this theory and the causal mechanism suggested, this thesis studies France as the case using a qualitative method that incorporates process tracing and discourse analysis. The thesis’ findings support the claim that when the government is in favor of deradicalization programs, but the public is not, the programs will be weakly implemented with a high likelihood of failure.Show less
The rise of China in Africa is well documented. However, little attention has been paid to how this has influenced the approach of traditional development actors in the region, such as the EU. This...Show moreThe rise of China in Africa is well documented. However, little attention has been paid to how this has influenced the approach of traditional development actors in the region, such as the EU. This study examines the Chinese influence on recent developments in the EU’s foreign and development policies towards Africa. More specifically, it focuses on the European Global Gateway Project, the restructuring of the EU’s external financing instruments and the EU’s rhetorical focus on developing ‘a partnership of equals’ with Africa. It argues that these developments were, at least partially, in response to China’s increasing influence in the region. I contend that EU concerns over its strategic interests in Africa and normative concerns over issues such as human rights and democracy both led to this response.Show less
Scholars tend to agree that moderation of radical groups stems from inclusionary tactics in the democratic process. However, there is evidence that counterinsurgency measures and exclusion could...Show moreScholars tend to agree that moderation of radical groups stems from inclusionary tactics in the democratic process. However, there is evidence that counterinsurgency measures and exclusion could also facilitate moderation. Therefore, this paper asks: ‘How do foreign counterinsurgency measures facilitate moderation of radical groups?’ The case study of the Lebanese Islamist group Hizballah, the Party of God, will be used to test the theory on collective angst, fear, and survival concerns resulting from counterinsurgency measures. Through a qualitative approach of applying process tracing to primary and secondary sources, this paper finds support for the argument that collective angst as a result of foreign counterinsurgency results in radical groups moderating their ideology.Show less
Migration ethics has its strongest implications on the particularly vulnerable population of undocumented migrants. In philosophy, decolonial conceptions of migration ethics have surfaced as a...Show moreMigration ethics has its strongest implications on the particularly vulnerable population of undocumented migrants. In philosophy, decolonial conceptions of migration ethics have surfaced as a counterargument to the hegemonic canon of migration ethics, with the latter approaches focusing on the extent of a state’s right to regulate its borders and the former approaches undermining this state right to exclusion in order to uplift the rights of the migrant. In legal practice, the theory of the Strasbourg reversal argues that the ECtHR, the judicial human rights body representing the European states of the Global North, has an inclination to side with the state in its rulings, whilst the IACHR, the human rights court representing the Latin American states of the Global South, has a pro-homine bias. This study conducted a discourse analysis of a legal ruling from each court pertaining to undocumented migrants to explore the extent that decision-making in verdicts towards undocumented migrants is influenced by coloniality in migration ethics, through either a hegemonic or decolonial conception of migration ethics. The results show that the ECtHR is influenced by the hegemonic discourse and the IACHR is influenced by the decolonial discourse, although there remains room for even more decolonial radicality.Show less
The purpose of this study was to explore how the local context of host countries shapes the provision of education to refugees. To achieve this aim, a comparative case study of Syrian refugee...Show moreThe purpose of this study was to explore how the local context of host countries shapes the provision of education to refugees. To achieve this aim, a comparative case study of Syrian refugee education in host countries Lebanon and Jordan was undertaken. Resting on the theoretical argument that context inherently matters for outcomes, it was expected that contextual differences between Jordan and Lebanon will have created differences in education for refugee children. Interviews were conducted with experts that have worked at various organizations in either context, in order to corroborate data from document research published by the governments, NGOs, or international organizations. An analysis of these diverse sources produced five contextual factors – political context, economic context, encampment policy, family practices, and cultural proximity – that provide an answer to this study’s research question and further endorse the notion that context inherently matters, and that ‘good practice’ for refugee education is highly contextual. In light of the contextual differences found, and their unique effects on refugee education, it can be said that Jordan and Lebanon should not be grouped together as hastefully as is done by existing scholarship, but should each be treated in their own right instead.Show less
How do populist political achievements impact political party discourse on the issue of immigration? The twenty-first century has seen the rise of populist parties and their countless political...Show moreHow do populist political achievements impact political party discourse on the issue of immigration? The twenty-first century has seen the rise of populist parties and their countless political successes across Europe. Despite this resurging phenomenon, few studies have directly focused on the relationship between these populist party victories and the discourse of traditional party politics. This study conducted a content analysis of the manifestos, speeches, and statements from the Labour and Conservative parties in the United Kingdom. It explored whether the populist victory of Brexit changed the way mainstream parties discussed the topic of immigration. Utilising group threat and framing theory as the basis for the theoretical framework, the results show that following the Brexit referendum both the Conservative and Labour party’s saw a decrease in anti-immigrant sentiments in their political discourse which was reflected in their political frames.Show less
This study addresses the behavior of regionalist parties in Spain as supporters of minority state governments. Focusing on three parties, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, EH Bildu and the Basque...Show moreThis study addresses the behavior of regionalist parties in Spain as supporters of minority state governments. Focusing on three parties, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, EH Bildu and the Basque Nationalist Party, this paper compares and analyzes their behavior in seven votes of the 2019-2023 legislature, looking closely at the exchanges of support and political concessions between the central government and these three parties. From this observation it can be concluded that the pay-offs preferred by the regionalist parties are territorial policy concessions, such as transfers of powers or state investments in these autonomous communities. However, it cannot be concluded that regionalist parties prefer multi-level goods, nor is there a relationship between the degree of regionalist extremism of the parties and their preferred type of territorial concession.Show less
Based on the theory of strategic silence, this paper analyzes the mobilization of social movements in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, following 2022 presidential elections and the unexpected silence of...Show moreBased on the theory of strategic silence, this paper analyzes the mobilization of social movements in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, following 2022 presidential elections and the unexpected silence of President Bolsonaro about his loss. The objective of this paper is to understand the degree to which silence influence collective mobilization. By drawing on social movements theory and political strategic silence theory, this paper creates a theoretical model to test the effects of silence, thus challenging a long existing notion that the effects of silence cannot be studied due to the difficulty in establishing casual links. A qualitative case study allied with semi-structured interviews of 8 protest leaders are used to test the theoretical model and understand the extent to which Bolsonaro’s silence played a part in their decision to mobilize. This paper finds that political strategic silence may increase the likelihood of mobilization when political opportunity, perceived threats and framing are also present.Show less
This thesis analyses the role of political factors in conflict arising from climate change through a single case study of the farmer-herder conflict in Laikipia, Kenya. A better understanding of...Show moreThis thesis analyses the role of political factors in conflict arising from climate change through a single case study of the farmer-herder conflict in Laikipia, Kenya. A better understanding of climate change and conflict is necessary, as there is no clear consensus among scholars. This thesis uses political ecology that states that political factors, such as politicised ethnicity, access to land tenure, and perception of identity have a direct influence on conflict. It criticises the environmental scarcity theory, which states that resource scarcity due to climate change directly influences conflict. Mixed methods are used to analyse the role of political factors. The process tracing method is used to test whether power relations in politics influence conflict and the qualitative content analysis method is used to support process tracing by providing inside into the political factors presented in three major Kenyan newspapers. The results show that perception of identity, access to land tenure, and politicised ethnicity all contribute to a negative impact on the ability of pastoralists to access and influence the distribution of resources. This causes the competition for resources to become violent. The findings also show there is indirect link between climate change and conflict. These findings are in line with political ecology theory. Therefore, this thesis contributes to the theory and discussion in the literature about climate change and conflict.Show less
Why do some rebel groups engage in inclusive forms of rebel governance by including local citizens in political decision-making processes whereas other groups rule more independently and focus on...Show moreWhy do some rebel groups engage in inclusive forms of rebel governance by including local citizens in political decision-making processes whereas other groups rule more independently and focus on little more than security and funding their rebellion? I argue that the level of inclusiveness of civilians in rebel governance depends on the group’s reliance on lootable natural resources. Rebel groups that rely on these resources are less dependent on the civilian population for support and therefore less likely to include them in the governing process. To test this hypothesis, I combine newly available quantitative data on rebel governance with existing data on the presence of natural resources. In doing so, I attempt to bridge the fields of natural resources and rebel governance. The analysis finds no support for the hypothesis, lootable natural resources show to have a positive influence on the level of rebel governance inclusiveness. The findings have implications for both academics and policy makers.Show less
Liberal democracies are under immense pressure. Apart from threatening exterior forces, it seems that interior forces are rising and increasingly threatening democracy from inside out. Public...Show moreLiberal democracies are under immense pressure. Apart from threatening exterior forces, it seems that interior forces are rising and increasingly threatening democracy from inside out. Public officials are receiving more threats than ever and even parliaments are attacked. Within public and academic debate, the question rises how to react. Scholars are referring and reacting to the theory of ‘militant democracy’, a democracy which allows for suspension of political rights, albeit under certain conditions. Specifically, this thesis focuses on the self-limiting theory of militant democracy by Kirshner (2014) as one of the most prominent recent academic accounts to the theory of militant democracy. What makes the theory notable, is that his work aims to offer a framework for liberal democracies on when and how to react to so-called ‘antidemocrats’. This thesis provides for a concrete definition of the term antidemocrat, links the three principles of Kirshner’s self-limiting theory of militant democracy with basic liberal principles, critically evaluates each of the principles and, where needed, expands or adjusts them, and expands the theory by adding a fourth principle.Show less
The norm against genocide is at least as old as the term itself (Lemkin 1944). Yet for all the rhetoric and resolutions, genocide persists, often with impunity, and even without condemnation. This...Show moreThe norm against genocide is at least as old as the term itself (Lemkin 1944). Yet for all the rhetoric and resolutions, genocide persists, often with impunity, and even without condemnation. This study focuses explicitly on why some genocides elicit more international condemnation than others. Specifically, it analyses the reactions of the Organisation for Islamic Cooperation [OIC] to the ongoing genocides of the Rohingya minority in Myanmar and the Uyghur minority in China. While the OIC has unconditionally condemned the former, it has been silent concerning the latter. Exploring this discrepancy, I qualifiedly endorse the realist/rational choice explanation: where the costs of condemnation are high, states and organisations are less inclined to act on the norm against genocide. However, as the case of Turkey and its support for the Uyghurs suggests, this is not a complete explanation. Thus, I contend that the identity-motivation of ethnic solidarity represents a stronger, more robust counterweight to the realist pressures of economics and security, thus increasing the likelihood of condemnation.Show less
External events can significantly impact policymaking. This paper explores European Union policymaking processes surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine to understand better the influence of...Show moreExternal events can significantly impact policymaking. This paper explores European Union policymaking processes surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine to understand better the influence of such historic external moments in the EU context. More concretely the paper establishes whether the first year following the outbreak of the war created a critical juncture for EU policymaking on disinformation online. Furthermore, it analyses based on the findings, in more detail, either the impact of this critical juncture or the pathdependence on the EU’s policymaking processes in this policy area. Employing the concepts of critical juncture and path-dependence and by triangulating EU documents and interviews with EU policymakers, the findings suggest that no critical juncture occurred. Instead, this paper goes on to analyse “strategies and choices of political leaders” and “decision-making processes” in the EU and establishes how the policymaking processes following the outbreak of the invasion are best characterised by an activity shift from Covid-19 to the war. Moreover, the analysis indicates that EU policymaking processes continue to follow a path-dependence that has been created progressively since the establishment of EU policy on disinformation online, after the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014.Show less
In a world where authoritarian regimes have become increasingly pervasive, digital surveillance has become a primary tool for maintaining control over citizens. Despite the public's awareness of...Show moreIn a world where authoritarian regimes have become increasingly pervasive, digital surveillance has become a primary tool for maintaining control over citizens. Despite the public's awareness of digital surveillance and its potential to limit freedom of expression and assembly, citizens of authoritarian regimes continue to organize and participate in public demonstrations in order to express their grievances. This paper therefore examines the extent to which digital surveillance influences citizens’ participation in public protests in authoritarian regimes, and how citizens cope with the limits imposed by such technologies. Combining existing scholarship with an examination of the case of China and the development of its ‘Golden Shield’, this study contends that digital surveillance succeeds in reducing public participation in demonstrations through creating a ‘chilling effect’ and causing widespread fear of physical retribution. It finds that citizens make use of a variety of strategies to mitigate the risk of digital surveillance through employing creative methods of censorship circumvention and evasion, although the longevity of such methods remains unclear. Process tracing is used to evaluate the key causal mechanisms associated with the developed “Digital Panopticon” theory. The paper concludes by discussing the wider socio-political implications of the findings.Show less
Can terrorist threats be forecasted in a systematic way? Which variables help to do so in the most accurate way? The present study examines the relative importance of features when building...Show moreCan terrorist threats be forecasted in a systematic way? Which variables help to do so in the most accurate way? The present study examines the relative importance of features when building forecasting models on terrorist threats. To do so, it draws on both academic literature and publications by counterterrorist practitioners. This study addresses three key gaps in existing research. Specifically, it allows for comparing the utility of different theoretical models to each other, it puts an explicit focus on machine learning-based forecasting with out-of-sample performance metrics, and it explicitly aims to incorporate knowledge from the practitioner sector, which is understandably less open about their work than the academic community but has still produced several insightful publications on the topic of forecasting terrorist threats. The outcomes of the analysis do not confirm the expectation that variables of interest to both academics and practitioners would have the highest predictive power. Rather, it is the population of a country that scores highest, followed by GDP, data on weapon flows into the country, and religious fragmentation in models with no features based on lagged versions of the outcome variable. In models including such variables, the lag of the terrorist attack occurrence consistently scores second highest, and these models consistently out-perform their counterparts missing these variables. The results obtained in this paper are arguably of most use to academic research, in that they add onto a so far relatively limited body of work on out-of-sample forecasting and provide insight into the relative predictive power of existing theoretical models. Practitioners may be more interested in the methodological approach taken in this piece, which can be of use to them when evaluating the priority list of warning indicators to take into consideration when assessing the severity of terrorist threats.Show less
