Based on the theory of strategic silence, this paper analyzes the mobilization of social movements in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, following 2022 presidential elections and the unexpected silence of...Show moreBased on the theory of strategic silence, this paper analyzes the mobilization of social movements in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, following 2022 presidential elections and the unexpected silence of President Bolsonaro about his loss. The objective of this paper is to understand the degree to which silence influence collective mobilization. By drawing on social movements theory and political strategic silence theory, this paper creates a theoretical model to test the effects of silence, thus challenging a long existing notion that the effects of silence cannot be studied due to the difficulty in establishing casual links. A qualitative case study allied with semi-structured interviews of 8 protest leaders are used to test the theoretical model and understand the extent to which Bolsonaro’s silence played a part in their decision to mobilize. This paper finds that political strategic silence may increase the likelihood of mobilization when political opportunity, perceived threats and framing are also present.Show less
Among the groups of civilians caught up in civil war, internally displaced populations are often assumed to have little say about their courses of action. In particular, current theoretical...Show moreAmong the groups of civilians caught up in civil war, internally displaced populations are often assumed to have little say about their courses of action. In particular, current theoretical accounts of civilian agency in civil war expect that, when facing high levels of violence, civilians can choose between staying or leaving their communities, and only if they stay, they can choose to resist against armed groups. This thesis challenges that these choices are always so clear-cut. Relying on secondary sources, it investigates how populations in northern Guatemala combined displacement and resistance during the most violent period of the Guatemalan Civil War. More generally, this thesis proposes that short-time horizons (civilians’ belief that displacement will be temporary), harsh living conditions that require cooperation during the early moments of displacement, and shared negative perceptions towards one or more armed groups, might lead civilian population towards the organization of collective resistance while being internally displaced.Show less
Although scholars have studied the aftermath of interstate cyberattacks, there has been little research on how states use non-violent measures to react to these digital attacks. Instead, research...Show moreAlthough scholars have studied the aftermath of interstate cyberattacks, there has been little research on how states use non-violent measures to react to these digital attacks. Instead, research has focussed on how cyberattacks are unlikely to trigger a physically violent, interstate response, missing how these new weapons can worsen interstate relations in non-violent ways. To address this gap, I pose the question, do cyberattacks lead to a decline in interstate relations, while still avoiding physical conflict? States are incentivised to deter future attacks by responding to the incursion while avoiding costly, physical confrontation. However, the intensity of this response is likely to be influenced by their relationship with their attacker. Attacks launched by rivals can appear more threatening due to their history of conflict and therefore warrant more aggressive, non-violent responses. I therefore investigate whether cyberattacks lead to an increase in an attacked state’s defence budget and a reduction in diplomatic relations. While some support is found for states using these non-violent measures as a response to cyberattacks, the presence of a rivalry did not lead to the expected outcomes, due to weaknesses with the operationalisation of my variables. Nevertheless, my thesis indicates non-violent, negative measures are used in response to a cyberattack and therefore the impact of cyberweapons in damaging interstate relations should not be underestimated.Show less
This thesis aims to uncover the conditions under which the involvement of former rebel groups in post-conflict politics contributes to enduring peace. Many of today’s peace settlements are built...Show moreThis thesis aims to uncover the conditions under which the involvement of former rebel groups in post-conflict politics contributes to enduring peace. Many of today’s peace settlements are built around the promises of post-conflict electoral politics and the involvement of former rebel groups in this process. Yet, the electoral process entails high levels of uncertainty for combatants, which makes credible commitment to electoral politics rather difficult. Therefore, conflict scholars have tried to identify ways by which the problems of commitment can be resolved. Nevertheless, there is a lack of consistency within the literature on what specific conditions determine whether the involvement of former combatants in post-conflict electoral politics contributes to durable peace. This study aims to fill this gap by examining how the interaction of the three main conditions: third-party assistance, levels of institutionalization, and power-sharing institutions, affects the relation between the participation of former combatants in post-conflict politics and durable peace. I combine within-case process-tracing with a case comparison of Rwanda, Liberia, Angola, and Mozambique.Show less
This study investigates the relationship between violent protest and popular support for the military in Latin America and Chile, Recently, Latin America has experienced a large wave of violent...Show moreThis study investigates the relationship between violent protest and popular support for the military in Latin America and Chile, Recently, Latin America has experienced a large wave of violent anti-government protests causing unrest and instability in the region. Simultaneously, a growing trend shows that Latin American citizens are becoming more supportive of the military. Accordingly, existing theories on militarization have not yet sufficiently analyzed the link between these two variables. While scholars often indicate that insecurity and distrust in political institutions are important determinants to growing levels of support for the military, they have not yet been linked directly to violent protest. Therefore, this research aims to build upon these works and theorizes that violent protest leads to feelings of insecurity and distrust in political institutions which in turn, drives citizens to grant more authority to the military. It is found in the Chilean case that violent protest generally does not lead to higher levels of support for the military although it does fuel demands for a short-term military solution to curb public disorder.Show less
The introduction of cell phones and the Internet into society has change the means through which collective mobilization efforts are done, increasingly using online platforms or messaging services...Show moreThe introduction of cell phones and the Internet into society has change the means through which collective mobilization efforts are done, increasingly using online platforms or messaging services to do so. This paper brings forward the following research question: What is the effect of ICT on the onset of armed conflict? The discussion will be operationalized by a cross-national country analysis on seven ASEAN countries between 2001 and 2017. These economies have seen an exponential spread of individual-access to ICT since they have become widely available to the masses, while also being continuously affected by severe on-going armed conflict. To answer the research question, the theoretical link between ICT and conflict onset is empirically examined by testing three hypothesis quantitively, using a negative binomial regression model. Based on the existing literature on conflict onset, I expected a positive relationship: an increase of ICT would be associated with an increase in armed conflict onset. The findings confirm most of the expectations, while others ask for more nuanced research on cell phone and Internet availability and the relationship with armed conflict onset.Show less
In a region more characterized by a history of military coups and autocratic military rule than by inter-state conflict, the armed forces have increasingly been deployed inside each state’s own...Show moreIn a region more characterized by a history of military coups and autocratic military rule than by inter-state conflict, the armed forces have increasingly been deployed inside each state’s own territory with the goal of fighting violent crime. Throughout the 21st century, Latin American countries have, without exception, progressively militarized their security. This thesis seeks to research whether this militarization is impacting the quality of democracy in the continent. Using Rio de Janeiro as an in-depth case study, I argue that the militarization of security has the potential to undermine the quality of democracy by diminishing state capacity.Show less
Does it make a difference whether women are included in peace negotiations or should it just be left to the men in charge? Arguably, there is a connection in this statement: including women in the...Show moreDoes it make a difference whether women are included in peace negotiations or should it just be left to the men in charge? Arguably, there is a connection in this statement: including women in the peace process may reshape who is “in charge” by affecting levels of female political participation in the post-conflict environment. Though support for the idea that women should be involved in the peacebuilding process is almost unanimous, insufficient consideration has been given to how this involvement affects women in the longer-term, especially in relation to their political engagement. This thesis will build a theory about the relationship between women’s involvement in peace negotiations, and their subsequent levels of political participation. To do so, I will consider whether involvement in peace negotiations matters, and whether the type of involvement has varying degrees of impact. I theorize that the type women’s inclusion in the peace process affects the rate of political participation in two main ways: by causing a shift in cultural norms relating to the role of women and by altering the content of the agreement itself.Show less
