The Dutch company ASML produces internationally indispensable machines that manufacture advanced semiconductor chips. As a small state, the Netherlands are now caught between China and the US,...Show moreThe Dutch company ASML produces internationally indispensable machines that manufacture advanced semiconductor chips. As a small state, the Netherlands are now caught between China and the US, which are both interested in securing ASML technology. The purpose of this study is to look at the small state strategies employed by the Netherlands in reaction to US pressure to adopt export controls and what the impact is of ASML as a critical node on the power sources of the Netherlands. It proposes that a critical node mostly affects a small state’s intrinsic power (positively) and collective power (negatively). This will be researched by looking at official Dutch and American policy documents and interviews with government officials. It aims to add work on small state power and foreign policy strategies.Show less
Recent studies have attempted to explain the mixed results in the literature on environmental scarcity and intrastate conflict by exploring factors that might enable or mitigate the effects of...Show moreRecent studies have attempted to explain the mixed results in the literature on environmental scarcity and intrastate conflict by exploring factors that might enable or mitigate the effects of scarcity. However, the role of one of these factors, political corruption, remains underexplored. While scholars have made strides in uncovering whether corruption influences the scarcity-conflict relationship, they have failed to analyze its role in the causal mechanism connecting environmental scarcity to intrastate conflict. In this study, I address this gap in the literature by examining the role of political corruption in the causal mechanism linking environmental scarcity to intrastate conflict incidence. Using theory-testing process tracing in a case study of the 2012-2013 Kenyan Tana River District clashes, I demonstrate that political corruption in environmental governance can play a crucial role in the environmental scarcity-conflict mechanism by further diminishing natural resource availability. This increases confidence in the notion that political corruption might explain the mixed results in the literature. However, future research should test these findings in multiple different contexts to explore their generalizability and rule out possible alternative explanations.Show less
Climate disasters have significant implications for development and human security, especially in contexts that are already fragile and vulnerable such as conflict-affected areas. However, their...Show moreClimate disasters have significant implications for development and human security, especially in contexts that are already fragile and vulnerable such as conflict-affected areas. However, their influence on conflict intensity in ongoing armed civil conflicts has thus far been chronically understudied. In this thesis, I examine the potential causal mechanisms linking the occurrence of sudden-onset climate disasters and fluctuations in conflict intensity using Somalia as a single case study and theory-testing process tracing. This builds on existing research by considering the emotional and psychological impact of sudden-onset disasters in contexts of conflict and its subsequent effect on aggression and violence. The case-study analysis establishes, to a certain extent, a causal link between the occurrence of sudden-onset disasters and increases in conflict intensity. However, certain contextual factors, such as the strength of state infrastructure, are identified as key determinants for such a causal link to be established.Show less
My research delves into the correlation between economic external interventions during conflicts and the level of corruption in post-conflict settings. External interventions happening during a...Show moreMy research delves into the correlation between economic external interventions during conflicts and the level of corruption in post-conflict settings. External interventions happening during a conflict are often overlooked as a source of corruption in the post-conflict period. Using a theoretical framework, I analyse the various factors that contribute to heightened corruption in these situations, including instability, misuse of foreign aid, and the absence of the rule of law. I hypothesize that external economic interventions in conflict-ridden countries may result in increased corruption in the post-conflict period. By investigating the connection between external financial aid and corruption, my study aims to shed new light on the dynamics of this previously overlooked relationship. Using quantitative analysis, I was able to conclude that economic foreign intervention during conflict onset increases the level of corruption in the aftermath. By better-understanding corruption in conflict-affected environments, my research emphasizes the importance of further investigation in this area, where corruption remains a persistent challenge. Corruption remains a persistent challenge in post-conflict settings, and policies to address this issue must consider the specific challenges posed by external economic interventions. By identifying the factors that contribute to corruption and the impact of external economic interventions, policymakers can develop more effective strategies for combating corruption and promoting sustainable development in conflict-affected regions.Show less
Voting is the cornerstone of democratic participation, allowing citizens to choose their leadership and shape government policy. However, since the 1990s, voter turnout has been declining, leading...Show moreVoting is the cornerstone of democratic participation, allowing citizens to choose their leadership and shape government policy. However, since the 1990s, voter turnout has been declining, leading to the question of why some people vote and others do not. While existing research has explored various factors influencing voter turnout, the impact of essential human needs has been underexplored. To address this gap, I investigate how food insecurity influences voter turnout, focusing on the mediating role of education. The theorised idea is that food insecurity creates economic stress and limits opportunities, which, in turn, negatively impacts education levels. Disparities in education can reduce political interest and knowledge, arguably leading to lower voter turnout. I employ theory testing process tracing to identify evidence for the constructed causal mechanism. Comparative case studies of Mali and Ghana, states with similar food security levels but varying education levels and voter turnout, will be conducted to explain this complex relationship. The results show the impact of food insecurity on education and voter turnout, revealing variations in school enrolment despite similar economic hardships. The research highlights the complex relationship between food security, education, and electoral participation, emphasising the need for a broader approach to socioeconomic factors to explain electoral participation.Show less
This thesis explores the cultural and political biases inherent in generative AI models such as language and image-generation systems. It investigates how these biases manifest and their...Show moreThis thesis explores the cultural and political biases inherent in generative AI models such as language and image-generation systems. It investigates how these biases manifest and their implications for society, specifically focusing on models trained on vast internet datasets. The study uses Antonio Gramsci’s theory of cultural hegemony as an analytical framework to understand how generative AI, trained on socially produced information, reflects, and potentially reinforces societal values and ideologies. It provides empirical analysis through testing various generative AI platforms, examining their response to different prompts, and assessing their portrayal of culture, historical, and political subjects. The thesis aims to contribute to the broader discussion of generative AI’s role in shaping sociopolitical landscapes, offering insights into the extent and nature of biases present in these technologies, and their broader implications.Show less
Due to their limited relative power and material capabilities, neorealism posits that weaker states can either pursue a balancing or bandwagoning strategy against the revisionist power threat....Show moreDue to their limited relative power and material capabilities, neorealism posits that weaker states can either pursue a balancing or bandwagoning strategy against the revisionist power threat. However, Southeast Asian states are not behaving as the neorealist expectations suggest. Instead, hedging explains why these smaller states opt for middle-ground strategies, but this framework fails to account for sudden shifts in foreign policy. Consequently, there is still no clear consensus on what explains varying foreign policy behaviour in weaker Southeast Asian states under similar systemic pressures from US-China competition. To fill this gap, this thesis seeks to answer the research question: ‘How do domestic political factors contribute to a change in a weaker state’s foreign policy strategy toward competing great powers?’ The thesis approaches this question by using Schweller’s (2006) neoclassical realist theory of underbalancing behaviour which provides a model of four intervening domestic-level factors to explain strategic changes. The four domestic-level factors: elite consensus, elite cohesion, societal cohesion, and government vulnerability are applied to a single case study of the Philippines under President Duterte and analysed through archival analysis and process tracing. The analysis demonstrates that the four domestic political factors had influenced the Philippines’ decision to restrengthen their US alliance and distance themselves from further alignment with China to an extent. It further found government vulnerability and social cohesion to be the most significant explanatory factors. These findings contribute to a better understanding of weaker state foreign policy behaviour amid great power rivalry and underlines the importance of a domestic-level analysis.Show less
Ever since the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, China has been amassing foreign exchange reserves. Since 2007 it has been strategically deploying these reserves internationally to buy foreign assets...Show moreEver since the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, China has been amassing foreign exchange reserves. Since 2007 it has been strategically deploying these reserves internationally to buy foreign assets using so-called Sovereign Leveraged Funds. Some scholars claim most of these investments were not part of a well-defined grand strategy, but a crisis-induced necessity. Others claim it was part of a grand strategy. There is, however, a consensus on both sides that the Silk Road Fund indeed has a strategic goal, but theoretical justification for this consensus is lacking. Using the case of the investment in the Port of Rotterdam, which is part of the Silk Road Fund, I research whether the leveraging of foreign exchange reserves can be explained by combining the theories of economic statecraft and geoeconomics in order to address implications that can be drawn from this. The findings indicate that the Chinese state is hiding behind commercial actors, and simultaneously aligning the commercial and strategic interests to gain strategic power internationally, aided using the leveraging of foreign exchange reserves.Show less
This thesis examines why BRICS emerged among Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, despite the dissimilarities between these countries. Following a constructivist approach, this thesis...Show moreThis thesis examines why BRICS emerged among Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, despite the dissimilarities between these countries. Following a constructivist approach, this thesis assumes that regions are not fixed but rather constituted and constructed through ideational factors. As such, BRICS is considered a ‘virtual region’. The aim of this thesis is to explain the process through which a collective identity paved the way for cooperation among the countries. The analysis shows that the BRICS identity is rooted in the longer-standing narrative about the Global South. The shared identity facilitated the alignment of their interests. Despite some variation, a development-multipolarity discourse is identified. The countries not only seek economic development within BRICS and the Global South, but also a greater voice in global governance. The creation of a collective identity and the alignment of interests paved the way for BRICS to emerge as virtual region, embedded in the Global South narrative.Show less
This thesis explores the impact of public opinion on the establishment of deradicalization programs for returning foreign fighters. The issue of returning foreign fighters has become increasingly...Show moreThis thesis explores the impact of public opinion on the establishment of deradicalization programs for returning foreign fighters. The issue of returning foreign fighters has become increasingly relevant in recent years and governments worldwide have been struggling to reintegrate them back into society. By implementing a bottom-up approach to deradicalization initiatives, this thesis contributes to the body of literature on counterterrorism and sheds light on the potential influence of public opinion on the implementation of deradicalization programs. Agency theory, which forms the foundation of the study, contends that there will be a weak implementation when public opinion is against a deradicalization program, but the government is in favor of it. To test this theory and the causal mechanism suggested, this thesis studies France as the case using a qualitative method that incorporates process tracing and discourse analysis. The thesis’ findings support the claim that when the government is in favor of deradicalization programs, but the public is not, the programs will be weakly implemented with a high likelihood of failure.Show less
Scholars tend to agree that moderation of radical groups stems from inclusionary tactics in the democratic process. However, there is evidence that counterinsurgency measures and exclusion could...Show moreScholars tend to agree that moderation of radical groups stems from inclusionary tactics in the democratic process. However, there is evidence that counterinsurgency measures and exclusion could also facilitate moderation. Therefore, this paper asks: ‘How do foreign counterinsurgency measures facilitate moderation of radical groups?’ The case study of the Lebanese Islamist group Hizballah, the Party of God, will be used to test the theory on collective angst, fear, and survival concerns resulting from counterinsurgency measures. Through a qualitative approach of applying process tracing to primary and secondary sources, this paper finds support for the argument that collective angst as a result of foreign counterinsurgency results in radical groups moderating their ideology.Show less
Based on the theory of strategic silence, this paper analyzes the mobilization of social movements in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, following 2022 presidential elections and the unexpected silence of...Show moreBased on the theory of strategic silence, this paper analyzes the mobilization of social movements in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, following 2022 presidential elections and the unexpected silence of President Bolsonaro about his loss. The objective of this paper is to understand the degree to which silence influence collective mobilization. By drawing on social movements theory and political strategic silence theory, this paper creates a theoretical model to test the effects of silence, thus challenging a long existing notion that the effects of silence cannot be studied due to the difficulty in establishing casual links. A qualitative case study allied with semi-structured interviews of 8 protest leaders are used to test the theoretical model and understand the extent to which Bolsonaro’s silence played a part in their decision to mobilize. This paper finds that political strategic silence may increase the likelihood of mobilization when political opportunity, perceived threats and framing are also present.Show less
Why do some rebel groups engage in inclusive forms of rebel governance by including local citizens in political decision-making processes whereas other groups rule more independently and focus on...Show moreWhy do some rebel groups engage in inclusive forms of rebel governance by including local citizens in political decision-making processes whereas other groups rule more independently and focus on little more than security and funding their rebellion? I argue that the level of inclusiveness of civilians in rebel governance depends on the group’s reliance on lootable natural resources. Rebel groups that rely on these resources are less dependent on the civilian population for support and therefore less likely to include them in the governing process. To test this hypothesis, I combine newly available quantitative data on rebel governance with existing data on the presence of natural resources. In doing so, I attempt to bridge the fields of natural resources and rebel governance. The analysis finds no support for the hypothesis, lootable natural resources show to have a positive influence on the level of rebel governance inclusiveness. The findings have implications for both academics and policy makers.Show less
In a world where authoritarian regimes have become increasingly pervasive, digital surveillance has become a primary tool for maintaining control over citizens. Despite the public's awareness of...Show moreIn a world where authoritarian regimes have become increasingly pervasive, digital surveillance has become a primary tool for maintaining control over citizens. Despite the public's awareness of digital surveillance and its potential to limit freedom of expression and assembly, citizens of authoritarian regimes continue to organize and participate in public demonstrations in order to express their grievances. This paper therefore examines the extent to which digital surveillance influences citizens’ participation in public protests in authoritarian regimes, and how citizens cope with the limits imposed by such technologies. Combining existing scholarship with an examination of the case of China and the development of its ‘Golden Shield’, this study contends that digital surveillance succeeds in reducing public participation in demonstrations through creating a ‘chilling effect’ and causing widespread fear of physical retribution. It finds that citizens make use of a variety of strategies to mitigate the risk of digital surveillance through employing creative methods of censorship circumvention and evasion, although the longevity of such methods remains unclear. Process tracing is used to evaluate the key causal mechanisms associated with the developed “Digital Panopticon” theory. The paper concludes by discussing the wider socio-political implications of the findings.Show less
Can terrorist threats be forecasted in a systematic way? Which variables help to do so in the most accurate way? The present study examines the relative importance of features when building...Show moreCan terrorist threats be forecasted in a systematic way? Which variables help to do so in the most accurate way? The present study examines the relative importance of features when building forecasting models on terrorist threats. To do so, it draws on both academic literature and publications by counterterrorist practitioners. This study addresses three key gaps in existing research. Specifically, it allows for comparing the utility of different theoretical models to each other, it puts an explicit focus on machine learning-based forecasting with out-of-sample performance metrics, and it explicitly aims to incorporate knowledge from the practitioner sector, which is understandably less open about their work than the academic community but has still produced several insightful publications on the topic of forecasting terrorist threats. The outcomes of the analysis do not confirm the expectation that variables of interest to both academics and practitioners would have the highest predictive power. Rather, it is the population of a country that scores highest, followed by GDP, data on weapon flows into the country, and religious fragmentation in models with no features based on lagged versions of the outcome variable. In models including such variables, the lag of the terrorist attack occurrence consistently scores second highest, and these models consistently out-perform their counterparts missing these variables. The results obtained in this paper are arguably of most use to academic research, in that they add onto a so far relatively limited body of work on out-of-sample forecasting and provide insight into the relative predictive power of existing theoretical models. Practitioners may be more interested in the methodological approach taken in this piece, which can be of use to them when evaluating the priority list of warning indicators to take into consideration when assessing the severity of terrorist threats.Show less
Among the groups of civilians caught up in civil war, internally displaced populations are often assumed to have little say about their courses of action. In particular, current theoretical...Show moreAmong the groups of civilians caught up in civil war, internally displaced populations are often assumed to have little say about their courses of action. In particular, current theoretical accounts of civilian agency in civil war expect that, when facing high levels of violence, civilians can choose between staying or leaving their communities, and only if they stay, they can choose to resist against armed groups. This thesis challenges that these choices are always so clear-cut. Relying on secondary sources, it investigates how populations in northern Guatemala combined displacement and resistance during the most violent period of the Guatemalan Civil War. More generally, this thesis proposes that short-time horizons (civilians’ belief that displacement will be temporary), harsh living conditions that require cooperation during the early moments of displacement, and shared negative perceptions towards one or more armed groups, might lead civilian population towards the organization of collective resistance while being internally displaced.Show less
