This thesis explores the impact of public opinion on the establishment of deradicalization programs for returning foreign fighters. The issue of returning foreign fighters has become increasingly...Show moreThis thesis explores the impact of public opinion on the establishment of deradicalization programs for returning foreign fighters. The issue of returning foreign fighters has become increasingly relevant in recent years and governments worldwide have been struggling to reintegrate them back into society. By implementing a bottom-up approach to deradicalization initiatives, this thesis contributes to the body of literature on counterterrorism and sheds light on the potential influence of public opinion on the implementation of deradicalization programs. Agency theory, which forms the foundation of the study, contends that there will be a weak implementation when public opinion is against a deradicalization program, but the government is in favor of it. To test this theory and the causal mechanism suggested, this thesis studies France as the case using a qualitative method that incorporates process tracing and discourse analysis. The thesis’ findings support the claim that when the government is in favor of deradicalization programs, but the public is not, the programs will be weakly implemented with a high likelihood of failure.Show less
Scholars tend to agree that moderation of radical groups stems from inclusionary tactics in the democratic process. However, there is evidence that counterinsurgency measures and exclusion could...Show moreScholars tend to agree that moderation of radical groups stems from inclusionary tactics in the democratic process. However, there is evidence that counterinsurgency measures and exclusion could also facilitate moderation. Therefore, this paper asks: ‘How do foreign counterinsurgency measures facilitate moderation of radical groups?’ The case study of the Lebanese Islamist group Hizballah, the Party of God, will be used to test the theory on collective angst, fear, and survival concerns resulting from counterinsurgency measures. Through a qualitative approach of applying process tracing to primary and secondary sources, this paper finds support for the argument that collective angst as a result of foreign counterinsurgency results in radical groups moderating their ideology.Show less
Based on the theory of strategic silence, this paper analyzes the mobilization of social movements in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, following 2022 presidential elections and the unexpected silence of...Show moreBased on the theory of strategic silence, this paper analyzes the mobilization of social movements in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, following 2022 presidential elections and the unexpected silence of President Bolsonaro about his loss. The objective of this paper is to understand the degree to which silence influence collective mobilization. By drawing on social movements theory and political strategic silence theory, this paper creates a theoretical model to test the effects of silence, thus challenging a long existing notion that the effects of silence cannot be studied due to the difficulty in establishing casual links. A qualitative case study allied with semi-structured interviews of 8 protest leaders are used to test the theoretical model and understand the extent to which Bolsonaro’s silence played a part in their decision to mobilize. This paper finds that political strategic silence may increase the likelihood of mobilization when political opportunity, perceived threats and framing are also present.Show less
Why do some rebel groups engage in inclusive forms of rebel governance by including local citizens in political decision-making processes whereas other groups rule more independently and focus on...Show moreWhy do some rebel groups engage in inclusive forms of rebel governance by including local citizens in political decision-making processes whereas other groups rule more independently and focus on little more than security and funding their rebellion? I argue that the level of inclusiveness of civilians in rebel governance depends on the group’s reliance on lootable natural resources. Rebel groups that rely on these resources are less dependent on the civilian population for support and therefore less likely to include them in the governing process. To test this hypothesis, I combine newly available quantitative data on rebel governance with existing data on the presence of natural resources. In doing so, I attempt to bridge the fields of natural resources and rebel governance. The analysis finds no support for the hypothesis, lootable natural resources show to have a positive influence on the level of rebel governance inclusiveness. The findings have implications for both academics and policy makers.Show less
In a world where authoritarian regimes have become increasingly pervasive, digital surveillance has become a primary tool for maintaining control over citizens. Despite the public's awareness of...Show moreIn a world where authoritarian regimes have become increasingly pervasive, digital surveillance has become a primary tool for maintaining control over citizens. Despite the public's awareness of digital surveillance and its potential to limit freedom of expression and assembly, citizens of authoritarian regimes continue to organize and participate in public demonstrations in order to express their grievances. This paper therefore examines the extent to which digital surveillance influences citizens’ participation in public protests in authoritarian regimes, and how citizens cope with the limits imposed by such technologies. Combining existing scholarship with an examination of the case of China and the development of its ‘Golden Shield’, this study contends that digital surveillance succeeds in reducing public participation in demonstrations through creating a ‘chilling effect’ and causing widespread fear of physical retribution. It finds that citizens make use of a variety of strategies to mitigate the risk of digital surveillance through employing creative methods of censorship circumvention and evasion, although the longevity of such methods remains unclear. Process tracing is used to evaluate the key causal mechanisms associated with the developed “Digital Panopticon” theory. The paper concludes by discussing the wider socio-political implications of the findings.Show less
Can terrorist threats be forecasted in a systematic way? Which variables help to do so in the most accurate way? The present study examines the relative importance of features when building...Show moreCan terrorist threats be forecasted in a systematic way? Which variables help to do so in the most accurate way? The present study examines the relative importance of features when building forecasting models on terrorist threats. To do so, it draws on both academic literature and publications by counterterrorist practitioners. This study addresses three key gaps in existing research. Specifically, it allows for comparing the utility of different theoretical models to each other, it puts an explicit focus on machine learning-based forecasting with out-of-sample performance metrics, and it explicitly aims to incorporate knowledge from the practitioner sector, which is understandably less open about their work than the academic community but has still produced several insightful publications on the topic of forecasting terrorist threats. The outcomes of the analysis do not confirm the expectation that variables of interest to both academics and practitioners would have the highest predictive power. Rather, it is the population of a country that scores highest, followed by GDP, data on weapon flows into the country, and religious fragmentation in models with no features based on lagged versions of the outcome variable. In models including such variables, the lag of the terrorist attack occurrence consistently scores second highest, and these models consistently out-perform their counterparts missing these variables. The results obtained in this paper are arguably of most use to academic research, in that they add onto a so far relatively limited body of work on out-of-sample forecasting and provide insight into the relative predictive power of existing theoretical models. Practitioners may be more interested in the methodological approach taken in this piece, which can be of use to them when evaluating the priority list of warning indicators to take into consideration when assessing the severity of terrorist threats.Show less
Among the groups of civilians caught up in civil war, internally displaced populations are often assumed to have little say about their courses of action. In particular, current theoretical...Show moreAmong the groups of civilians caught up in civil war, internally displaced populations are often assumed to have little say about their courses of action. In particular, current theoretical accounts of civilian agency in civil war expect that, when facing high levels of violence, civilians can choose between staying or leaving their communities, and only if they stay, they can choose to resist against armed groups. This thesis challenges that these choices are always so clear-cut. Relying on secondary sources, it investigates how populations in northern Guatemala combined displacement and resistance during the most violent period of the Guatemalan Civil War. More generally, this thesis proposes that short-time horizons (civilians’ belief that displacement will be temporary), harsh living conditions that require cooperation during the early moments of displacement, and shared negative perceptions towards one or more armed groups, might lead civilian population towards the organization of collective resistance while being internally displaced.Show less
The post pandemic (COVID-19) world has been significantly different from the pre pandemic one. As the world embarks on creating and adjusting to a new normal it is important to acknowledge that the...Show moreThe post pandemic (COVID-19) world has been significantly different from the pre pandemic one. As the world embarks on creating and adjusting to a new normal it is important to acknowledge that the duration of the pandemic saw not only a public health crisis but also a political one. The body of literature provides a rich understanding of digital repression and its various dimensions. However, there is a gap in understanding digital repression in the context of public health emergency, particularly in democracies. The COVID-19 pandemic witnessed the convergence of a public health emergency and a political crisis, with significant implications for digital repression. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the intensification of digital repression in democracies during public health emergency, contributing to a broader understanding of the intersection between digital repression, emergency situations, and democratic governance. The academic and social relevance of this study lies in its potential to inform policy and decision-making during future public health emergencies. Additionally, this study contributes to a broader understanding of the impact of digital technologies on democratic values, human rights, and governance in the digital age. The findings conclude that the states tend to amplify digital repression during public health emergency situations.Show less
In conflict literature, much attention has been given to the relation between food prices and conflict, as well as the effects of climate change on conflict and food security, in an attempt to...Show moreIn conflict literature, much attention has been given to the relation between food prices and conflict, as well as the effects of climate change on conflict and food security, in an attempt to explain civilian victimisation through food security. However, the effect of crop pests and diseases on violence against civilians has not been studied, despite the large proportion of worldwide crop loss caused by these factors. This study theorises that these pests pressure the local food supply and thus force armed groups to use violence in order to obtain their necessary resources from the local population. This results in the hypothesis that the occurrence of plant pests in an area increases the risk of violence against civilians by non-state actors. Specifically, this study focuses on the effects of locust swarms in four African countries: Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia and Kenya. The hypothesis is quantitatively tested using both OLS regression and negative binomial regression. A positive correlation between locust swarm occurrence and violence against civilians is found, which holds up against both fixed effects and specific control variables. This new finding suggests that the occurrence of locust swarms shortens the time horizons for cooperation between rebels and the local population, incentivising rebels to quickly gain resources using violence rather than engaging in long-term, more peaceful cooperation.Show less
Research typically stresses the repressive component of authoritarian states-civil society relations, but the role of concessions in these relations is still under-studied. As such, these analyses...Show moreResearch typically stresses the repressive component of authoritarian states-civil society relations, but the role of concessions in these relations is still under-studied. As such, these analyses do not consider a broader spectrum of dynamics and overlook that authoritarian state relations with civil society often combine coercive and cooperative elements. Seeking to answer the question of what drives authoritarian rulers to give concessions to civil society, this research concludes that perceived country-level threats motivate state concessions to civil society organisations working alongside state objectives of national stability and social cohesion. Focusing on present-day China, this study uses congruence analysis to test its conclusions against those anticipated by the hypothesis. The results contest theories that assume the relationship between authoritarian rulers and their citizens as unidirectional and expand on the literature on “consultative authoritarianism.” In providing a broader understanding of these relations, this research also hopes to help equip democratic leaders looking to foster the growth of civil society in authoritarian nations with the knowledge that is helpful to formulate more context-appropriate and effective foreign policy goals and behaviour.Show less
How and why do civilians refuse cooperation with governments during wartime mobilisation? Research examining civilian cooperation and non-cooperation within conflict studies has largely overlooked...Show moreHow and why do civilians refuse cooperation with governments during wartime mobilisation? Research examining civilian cooperation and non-cooperation within conflict studies has largely overlooked the micro-level dynamics of civilian resistance in inter-state war. Addressing this gap, this study uses testimonial data on the lived experiences of Russian civilians who refused cooperation with the Russian state following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The paper develops an argument that manifestations of civilian non-cooperation are shaped by individual and collectivised security seeking behaviour within repressive governance structures. It integrates theories of civilian agency and authoritarian repression. Lived experiences of violent repression both construct the image of the state as a violent institution and inform the efficacy of tactics of resistance, resulting in variation between avoidance, overt-resistance and oblique-resistance behaviours. As an exploratory study, the paper identifies gaps in our understanding and avenues for future research on civilian cooperation and non-cooperation in inter-state armed conflict.Show less
Ever since various IPCC reports have shown the impact and consequences of human action on the climate, an increasing number of policymakers start to realize the urgency of altering the way humans...Show moreEver since various IPCC reports have shown the impact and consequences of human action on the climate, an increasing number of policymakers start to realize the urgency of altering the way humans deal with it. Consequently, climate policies have emerged in the European political realm aimed at mitigating climate change. However, Europe has seen a recent rise of farmer protest movements that oppose these climate policies. Often labelled as being ‘anti-climate’, these protest movements seem to have deeper underlying causes. Policy perception impacts the way citizens react, which should be considered during the implementation of policy. This thesis analyses the cases of Germany and the Netherlands with interview data of various protest groups elites and experts. It argues that when citizens feel that climate policies are unfair, exclusive, untrustworthy and their financial costs are perceived as high, protest movements will arise and intensify. In addition, results show that perceived sociocultural costs are most important for protest movement emergence and intensification. Policymakers should deal with these perceptions adequately if they want to implement climate policies effectively.Show less
How are external factors able to cause conflict in a country? Scholars have examined the spatial component of conflict largely through the lens of conflict diffusion, where conflict spread from one...Show moreHow are external factors able to cause conflict in a country? Scholars have examined the spatial component of conflict largely through the lens of conflict diffusion, where conflict spread from one country to another. They have failed however, to examine the influence of one-sided violence on conflict in other countries. This is a major gap as one-sided violence does not necessarily mean conflict is occurring, meaning studies on the direct spread of conflict between countries fail to cover these cases. I fill this gap by asking: does the use of one-sided violence raise the likelihood of conflict onset in neighbouring countries? I argue that one-sided violence influences conflict onset in three ways, each via incoming refugee flows. First, refugees might have grievances that they are unable to express via traditional ways, increasing the likelihood that they may turn to violence. Second, refugees may change the ethnic composition of the host country, with the new ethnic balance causing or worsening ethnic tensions. Third, refugees may worsen the economic situation in the host country by competing with the local population, increasing local political tensions. I will study this by analyzing UCDP data on armed conflict and one-sided violence in neighboring countries. The results show that one-sided violence in neighbouring countries has a positive, significant effect on conflict onset. Countries that border countries experiencing one-sided violence have a higher likelihood of conflict occurring. The effect of refugees on conflict onset is shown to be positive and significant as well.Show less
Although scholars have studied the aftermath of interstate cyberattacks, there has been little research on how states use non-violent measures to react to these digital attacks. Instead, research...Show moreAlthough scholars have studied the aftermath of interstate cyberattacks, there has been little research on how states use non-violent measures to react to these digital attacks. Instead, research has focussed on how cyberattacks are unlikely to trigger a physically violent, interstate response, missing how these new weapons can worsen interstate relations in non-violent ways. To address this gap, I pose the question, do cyberattacks lead to a decline in interstate relations, while still avoiding physical conflict? States are incentivised to deter future attacks by responding to the incursion while avoiding costly, physical confrontation. However, the intensity of this response is likely to be influenced by their relationship with their attacker. Attacks launched by rivals can appear more threatening due to their history of conflict and therefore warrant more aggressive, non-violent responses. I therefore investigate whether cyberattacks lead to an increase in an attacked state’s defence budget and a reduction in diplomatic relations. While some support is found for states using these non-violent measures as a response to cyberattacks, the presence of a rivalry did not lead to the expected outcomes, due to weaknesses with the operationalisation of my variables. Nevertheless, my thesis indicates non-violent, negative measures are used in response to a cyberattack and therefore the impact of cyberweapons in damaging interstate relations should not be underestimated.Show less
The study explores the shift in anti-immigrant discourse of the French far-right party leadership with regard to the Ukrainian refugee crisis. A discourse analysis of the tweets and their...Show moreThe study explores the shift in anti-immigrant discourse of the French far-right party leadership with regard to the Ukrainian refugee crisis. A discourse analysis of the tweets and their accompanying media for Marine Le Pen (RN) and Éric Zemmour (R!) was conducted for the presidential campaign and election period of February to April 2022. The material selected was coded through ATLAS.ti into themes informed by the literature review and the theoretical framework. The findings indeed confirm a shift in emerging discourse, whereby solidarity towards and welcoming of Ukrainian refugees is grounded on the pretense of the traditional Christian spirit of providing asylum as well as their cultural and geographic proximity. Simultaneously, the limits of the Christian spirit towards non-European asylum seekers, refugees and immigrants was justified through discourse relying on neo-racist rhetoric based on ‘cultural differentialism’. These arguments often encompass non-European refugees fleeing from Ukraine.Show less
