This International Studies Master Thesis adds to the existing explanations of the outbreak of the border conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, from 1998 till 2000. In order to do so, the thesis...Show moreThis International Studies Master Thesis adds to the existing explanations of the outbreak of the border conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, from 1998 till 2000. In order to do so, the thesis makes use of the insights derived from the theory of Chiozza and Goemans (2011). This theory takes on a starting position in which an (authoritarian) leader faces domestic opposition. Chiozza and Goemans argue that when, in such a situation, an ‘exogenous shock’ favours the position of the opposition, the leader might rationally choose to use international conflict to secure his/her position in office. Embedded in this framework, the thesis finds that the relationship between the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has been problematic from the start, in particular because the EPLF was not prepared to let go its superior status. Furthermore, during the 1990s the EPLF turned into an authoritarian regime, centred around Isaias himself. Despite the fact that official opposition within Eritrea was impossible due to the repressive measures, foreign opposition emerged, including the ethnic minority groups of the Red Sea Afar peoples and the Kunama peoples, which were both supported by the Ethiopian government. At the same time, the balance between the EPLF and TPLF was changing; the EPLF had to accept the TPLF as the ‘senior partner’ as they had become the leader of a more powerful country, Ethiopia. This also implied that the ethnic minority groups were supported by a more powerful actor, which could have been the ‘exogenous shock’ that favoured the opposition, mentioned by Chiozza and Goemans. Therefore, Isaias might have rationally chosen to initiate the border war as a means to regain his power.Show less
