This research aims to improve our understanding of the decision-making processes within the European Union (EU) concerning sanctions imposed on Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine....Show moreThis research aims to improve our understanding of the decision-making processes within the European Union (EU) concerning sanctions imposed on Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Through the implementation of a comprehensive framework, this research enables a thorough examination of the selection process for specific types of sanctions, their application across various sectors, and the consideration of exceptions. The study expands upon existing literature by integrating feedback effects into the framework, alongside normative, domestic political, and geopolitical factors, as well as diffusion effects. The findings underscore the significant influence of normative and geopolitical considerations, while also highlighting the constraints imposed by humanitarian and economic concerns. Furthermore, the analysis reveals a dynamic sanctions regime shaped by feedback mechanisms and evolving geopolitical dynamics. By providing a solid foundation, this study paves the way for future research efforts on sanction design. It enables comparisons with other entities that impose sanctions and facilitates the evaluation of diverse sanctioning instruments in terms of their effectiveness.Show less
The war between Russia and Ukraine that started in 2022 came as a shock to most of the world. While the war is still in progress, attempts to prosecute the aggressor have already been set in motion...Show moreThe war between Russia and Ukraine that started in 2022 came as a shock to most of the world. While the war is still in progress, attempts to prosecute the aggressor have already been set in motion. The crime of aggression, which refers to Russia initiating the war, currently falls outside of the prosecuting options within international law. Therefore, the idea was created to set up an ad-hoc criminal tribunal to prosecute Russia’s high officials for starting the war. This thesis examines the factors that influenced the Dutch government’s offer to host a potential criminal tribunal to hold Russia accountable for the crime of aggression. Government documents, policy reports and literature on the interplay between international law and international relations were analysed and provided a basis for the semistructured interviews. The interviews with government officials and professors in international law and foreign policy show that there are multiple factors that influenced this offer. It was found there is a strong relationship between the history of the Netherlands and the foreign policy identity that exists today. The focus on accountability and the fight against impunity strongly influenced the Netherlands’ commitment to aiding the international community, by focussing on their specialty: hosting an international tribunal. The most important factor that could be identified which influenced the offer is the aspiration of the Netherlands to project a foreign policy identity that is linked to hosting international tribunals.Show less
This thesis investigates how the German Federal Government lives up to its normative and international commitments and initiatives to harmonize arms export controls. By analyzing existing data from...Show moreThis thesis investigates how the German Federal Government lives up to its normative and international commitments and initiatives to harmonize arms export controls. By analyzing existing data from the Federal Government’s yearly reports on its policy on exports of conventional military equipment and applying the International Relations Theories of Neorealism and Neoliberalism, it highlights the inseparability of arms export policy frameworks and foreign and security policy interests in the case of Germany. Furthermore, this thesis calls attention to the hierarchical structure that exists within this inseparability where the country’s arms export policy framework is given a secondary role to its foreign and security interests.Show less
This thesis aimed to establish how Gibridnaya Voyna became a popular framework in Russia to describe Russia’s relationship with the West. Using the process-tracing method, this thesis traced the...Show moreThis thesis aimed to establish how Gibridnaya Voyna became a popular framework in Russia to describe Russia’s relationship with the West. Using the process-tracing method, this thesis traced the two main aspects of the Gibridnaya Voyna framework, NATO expansion and color revolutions, throughout major Russian documents from 1991 to 2016.Show less
In April 2007, the streets of Tallinn bore witness to the worst civil unrest seen in Estonia since the Soviet Red Army arrived in the city in 1944. The riots, in which one ethnic Russian protester...Show moreIn April 2007, the streets of Tallinn bore witness to the worst civil unrest seen in Estonia since the Soviet Red Army arrived in the city in 1944. The riots, in which one ethnic Russian protester was killed and over 1,000 were arrested, came to be known as ‘Bronze Night’ and were sparked by the removal and relocation of a Soviet-era monument, the ‘Bronze Soldier’, which had stood in the centre of the city since 1947. This study argues that the removal of the ‘Bronze Soldier' can be viewed as the culmination of a ‘memory war’ which has played out since independence and which highlights and contributes to a rift in Estonian society. Drawing on insights garnered from memory studies and elements of securitization theory, this study argues that the construction of a singular focused ‘memory regime’ by the Estonian state has led to increased marginalisation of the ethnic Russian population in the state. Such marginalisation led to the creation of a counter-memory regime, embodied by the ‘Bronze Soldier’, which was easily exploited by the Russian state. The ensuing ‘memory war’ between both interpretations of history ensured ongoing hostility and antagonism between both ethnic groups which culminated in the events witnessed in 2007. This study argues that the construction of a more critical and pluralistic historical narrative on the part of the Estonian state, as opposed to an incessant fixation on Russia, would ensure increased integration in Estonia and subsequently, foster a greater feeling of security on the part of the Estonian state.Show less
The thesis analyses the extent to which the 2013 Crisis in Ukraine affected Kazakhstan and Belarus's economic and political relations with Russia within the integrational framework of the Eurasian...Show moreThe thesis analyses the extent to which the 2013 Crisis in Ukraine affected Kazakhstan and Belarus's economic and political relations with Russia within the integrational framework of the Eurasian Economic Union.Show less
The Arctic region finds itself increasingly in the international spotlight, especially since globalisation and melting ice coverage offer many new economic opportunities. Russia, in particular, has...Show moreThe Arctic region finds itself increasingly in the international spotlight, especially since globalisation and melting ice coverage offer many new economic opportunities. Russia, in particular, has received much attention and is occasionally described as the region’s “wild card”, based on international wariness about an increasingly assertive Russian leadership. In the last decade, Moscow has significantly expanded its military capabilities in the region and has adopted a more securitised stance on economic development of its Arctic territories, yet at the same time, it has consistently been an active presence in Arctic regional cooperation. This thesis explores the seeming bipolarity in Russia’s behaviour by paying special attention to the link between ideational and material motivations. Premised on the idea that the formation of national interests of a state is closely connected with the formation of its national identity, it identifies Russia’s pursuit of great power status in the Arctic as a key driver of Russian Arctic policy. Borrowing from critical geopolitics, which suggests that territory and geography are subject of active formulation and reformulation by governments, this thesis analyses policy documents to illustrate how the Kremlin conceptualises three different understandings of the Arctic region (the Arctic as a zone of peace and cooperation; the Arctic as essential for ensuring national security; and the Arctic as a base for Russia’s economic revival) as guided by different interests.Show less
Both scholars and politicians struggle to understand how the decision was made to go ahead with the annexation and for what reasons. Some scholars argue that Russia decided to annex Crimea because...Show moreBoth scholars and politicians struggle to understand how the decision was made to go ahead with the annexation and for what reasons. Some scholars argue that Russia decided to annex Crimea because of its importance as “the spiritual source” of the Russian nation, others state that Russia’s historical claim to the peninsula was the reason for the annexation (Russia possessed it until 1954 when the Soviet leadership transferred it to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic). Another group claims it was a purely strategic decision since it allowed Russia to increase its military capabilities by taking over most of the Ukrainian Black See Fleet and that this was just the start of president Putin’s great power restoration campaign . Most of the explanations are rooted in either the realist theory that revolves around power maximisation and self-interest or the constructivist theory that focusses on norms and identities. This thesis will build on the realist explanations for the annexation of Crimea, by introducing an analysis through the understudied Type III neoclassical realist theory (NCR), coined by Ripsman, Taliafero and Lobell in their book ‘Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics’. The neoclassical realist theory used in this research recognises that a system-only explanation is insufficient and therefore combines systemic variables with unit-level variables in attempting to explain foreign policy choices. This thesis build on the realist explanations for the annexation of Crimea, by introducing an analysis through the understudied Type III neoclassical realist theory (NCR), coined by Ripsman, Taliafero and Lobell in their book ‘Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics’. The neoclassical realist theory used in this research recognises that a system-only explanation is insufficient and therefore combines systemic variables with unit-level variables in attempting to explain foreign policy choices. This thesis determined if the four intervening variables neoclassical realism type III identified (e.g. leader images, strategic culture, state-society relations and domestic political institutions) affected the manner in which Russia responded to certain external stimuli (geography, military technology, distribution of power, polarity of the international system, clarity of the international system and the nature of state’s strategic environment) that lead to the annexation of Crimea. This thesis found that a state's strategic environment contributed most significantly to the decision to annex Crimea, because without the political turmoil going on within Ukraine it would have been unlikely that Russia would have succeeded. The research also found that the intervening variables of leader image and strategic culture played a part in the decision making process. Even though the strategic culture helped to gain acceptance among society, it was the leader image that was most influential in shaping the ultimate decision. In the case of Russia and Crimea, it is very clear that president Putin was the actor that made the annexation a reality.Show less
The downing of Flight MH17 in July 2014 constitutes a major crisis and a critical juncture in Dutch foreign policy towards Russia. This critical juncture created the conditions under which a...Show moreThe downing of Flight MH17 in July 2014 constitutes a major crisis and a critical juncture in Dutch foreign policy towards Russia. This critical juncture created the conditions under which a significant change in Dutch foreign policy towards Russia became possible as institutional constraints were suddenly loosened. By using process tracing this thesis studies the changes in Dutch foreign policy and the causal mechanism behind them following the downing of the airplane. The Dutch government initially took on a cautious position as it was hoping Russia could be convinced to cooperate with the investigation. However as the Kremlin continually spreads disinformation about Flight MH17 and consistently seeks to discredit and undermine the investigations, the Dutch government started to use more confrontational and less accommodating diplomatic tools. This is evidenced by the way in which the Dutch government exposed the foiled OPCW hacking attempt by the GRU as well as how it criticised Russia’s behaviour surrounding the downing of Flight MH17.Show less
Vladimir Putin has become one of the most significant Russian leaders. He has been at the head of the largest country in the world for nearly twenty years and has brought autocracy, according to...Show moreVladimir Putin has become one of the most significant Russian leaders. He has been at the head of the largest country in the world for nearly twenty years and has brought autocracy, according to his critics, and stability, according to his supporters. This research will remain focused on Putinism as an influential mechanism on other heads of state, informing the research question: To what extent has Putinism influenced the policies of Viktor Yanukovych and Ramzan Kadyrov from the year 2000? This topic is relevant as Putin’s charisma does play a severely important role in modern geopolitics, which has affected not only political opinions, but also wars and revolutions such as the Euromaidan Revolution, the annexation of Crimea and the war with Chechnya. Putinism is therefore presented as the theoretical framework of this research. For the purpose of this thesis, a comparative case analysis is put in practice, using the cases of Ukraine and Chechnya in order to answer the research question. Lastly, the conclusion will sum up the findings proving that both Yanukovych and Kadyrov were heavily influenced by Putinism.Show less
In February 2014, the Euromaidan Revolution culminated in the fall of the Yakukovych government in Ukraine. The Russian Federation responded with the illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and...Show moreIn February 2014, the Euromaidan Revolution culminated in the fall of the Yakukovych government in Ukraine. The Russian Federation responded with the illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and the backing of the pro-Russian unrest in the eastern regions of Ukraine. This escalated into an armed conflict which remains hostile to this day. This thesis aims to investigate the Russian hybrid warfare conducted against the state of Ukraine. Hybrid warfare is a controversial theory developed to explain the post-Cold War conflicts. Such conflicts often have blurred lines between conventional and unconventional methods and modes of warfare where a simultaneous usage of these intend to reach political objectives. The hybrid warfare assessment framework will be applied to the case study of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.Show less
Sastrowijoto, Laurens Pepijn Henricus Helenius 2020
This thesis focuses on the different forms of Realism in the field of International Relations; Classical Realism, Neorealism and Neoclassical Realism. With Neoclassical Realism being the most...Show moreThis thesis focuses on the different forms of Realism in the field of International Relations; Classical Realism, Neorealism and Neoclassical Realism. With Neoclassical Realism being the most recent addition, researched is why and to what extent it may be more suitable to analyse Russia’s FP with a focus on Crimea’s annexation, compared to its predecessors.Show less
This thesis examines the influence of conflict in Afghanistan on Russia’s security hegemony in Central Asia. By considering Central Asia a Regional Security Complex, and by viewing Russia’s role...Show moreThis thesis examines the influence of conflict in Afghanistan on Russia’s security hegemony in Central Asia. By considering Central Asia a Regional Security Complex, and by viewing Russia’s role within it through the theoretical framework of negotiated hegemony, this thesis compares the role Russia played in the region in the timeframe from the fall of the Soviet Union to 2001 with the role it played following the US invasion of Afghanistan. It is argued that Central Asia started a successful process of reducing Russia’s influence by transforming its RSC from a unipolar one dominated by Russia, to a centered one where the Central Asian Republics (CARs) themselves defined the security sphere. This long-term process was temporarily abandoned by jumping on the short-term opportunity of counterbalancing Russia’s security hegemony with that of the US from 2001 onward. Disappointed by both Russia’s inability to deal with the Afghan conflict, and the US’ disinterest in pursuing a more active role in the particularities of the Central Asian RSC, the CARs re-entered negotiations with Russia over its security hegemony; strengthened this time, however, by their own proven capabilities and sovereignty.Show less
The aim of this thesis is to establish a better understanding of the inner workings of frozen conflicts, by addressing the question of how the conflicts in Moldova and Georgia in the early 90’s...Show moreThe aim of this thesis is to establish a better understanding of the inner workings of frozen conflicts, by addressing the question of how the conflicts in Moldova and Georgia in the early 90’s became frozen. The current comprehension of frozen conflicts, both in academia and policy-making circles is rather elusive, as the conflicts are often seen through a mono-theoretical lens, overlooking the potential interaction between different factors on different levels. The three main theoretical perspectives on frozen conflicts; the geopolitical, ethno-nationalist and political-economic perspective, are assessed, after which an explanatory variable is derived from each one. Subsequently, the cases of Moldova and Georgia are analyzed alongside these variables, to determine to what extent each mechanism plays a role in the development of frozen conflicts. A qualitative comparative analysis is carried out to assess the interrelation between variables, across the three different phases of a frozen conflict. The results of this research show that the frozen conflicts in Moldova and Georgia are neither solely ethnic nor geopolitical in nature. Ethnic tensions interplayed with geopolitical motives, which are substantiated by criminal economic incentives. Therefore, the multi-layered nature of frozen conflicts cannot fully be understood through a monotheoretical lens.Show less
Soft power has become increasingly important for emerging states to establish themselves on the global landscape. Sports mega events present the perfect opportunity to do so in allowing the host...Show moreSoft power has become increasingly important for emerging states to establish themselves on the global landscape. Sports mega events present the perfect opportunity to do so in allowing the host country to engage in nation-branding and image promotion. Academic literature suggests that hosting a sports mega event contributes extensively to the host country’s soft power. With an unfavorable international reputation, Russia recognized the necessity to improve on its soft power and hosted the 2018 FIFA World Cup. However, Russia’s soft power remained seemingly unchanged despite the expected soft power impact of hosting a sports mega event. Academic literature fails to account for the crucial role of the media in determining the success of a sports mega event in combination with the fragile nature of soft power. This thesis argues that negative media narratives resulted in Russia’s inability to increase its soft power despite hosting a sports mega event, and, thereby, that the role of the media has been largely neglected in sports mega event discourse. Negative effects of sports mega events are identified, and corresponding keywords are applied in a qualitative content analysis to analyze negative media narratives in newspaper articles. Subsequently, it is explained what role the media played in the impact Russia's hosting of the 2018 FIFA World Cup had on the country's soft power based on narratives of corruption and human rights violations as well as Russia’s projection as international ‘bad guy’.Show less
This thesis studies how the Russian leadership securitised the compatriots during the annexation of Crimea in 2014. To this end, the thesis delves into the historical precedents and the political...Show moreThis thesis studies how the Russian leadership securitised the compatriots during the annexation of Crimea in 2014. To this end, the thesis delves into the historical precedents and the political discourse that shaped the securitisation of the Russian-speaking diaspora in the former Soviet republics. Through primary sources, this thesis presents a deconstruction of the recurrent themes in the political discourse, the security apparatus as well as the securitisation process with the help of the securitisation theory. The analysis of the materials studied shows that the compatriots have become a geopolitical tool for Russia when several favourable circumstances align, which allow the Kremlin to overstep the rules of ordinary politics into the realm of extraordinary measures. The compatriots have become an important asset in Russian foreign policy and, by extension, a potential security threat since they are considered Russian citizens whose identity and rights must be protected even when they are outside of Russia.Show less
The heightened tensions between Russia and the West, of which the ongoing crisis in and around Ukraine is a good illustration, pose a security threat to the Euro-Atlantic region. This thesis aims...Show moreThe heightened tensions between Russia and the West, of which the ongoing crisis in and around Ukraine is a good illustration, pose a security threat to the Euro-Atlantic region. This thesis aims to contribute to the understanding of Russian foreign policy within the OSCE as well as Russia’s stance towards Euro-Atlantic security issues. It addresses the question how Russia discursively constructs its national identity within the OSCE in the period 2008-2018 and whether these discourses reveal any changes and/or contradictions. This thesis fills an important research gap, because no previous research has been done on Russia’s national identity within the OSCE. A comprehensive understanding of a state’s national identity in its foreign policy is relevant, as it provides insights into the ideological factors that drive how a state defines and pursues its national interests and subsequently foreign policy. A poststructuralist discourse analysis is conducted of the Russian statements delivered at the yearly OSCE Ministerial Council Meetings in the period 2008-2018. The discourse analysis provided insights into how Russia perceives and would like to promote itself within the OSCE. It demonstrated that Russia presents itself within the OSCE as a redeemer of OSCE unilateral actions and an advocate of multilateralism, as a leading, responsible and moral actor that wants to be perceived and treated as a great power, and lastly as a guardian of traditional values and the Russian Orthodox Church.Show less
In light of the growth in cyberattacks occurring over the past few years, especially after the devastating effects of NotPetya and WannaCry malwares, this thesis reviews the application of the...Show moreIn light of the growth in cyberattacks occurring over the past few years, especially after the devastating effects of NotPetya and WannaCry malwares, this thesis reviews the application of the securitisation theory to the phenomenon of cyberattacks. It addresses the shortcomings of the theoretical framework proposed by the Copenhagen School of thoughts with regards to this particular security area and suggests an adapted approach, more flexible and contextual. The paper develops its thesis in the context of Russian cyberattacks against the Ukrainian power grid and infrastructures that occurred in recent years.Show less
