A mong re newable resources, water has been a constant f ocal point for concerns over scarcity and inter state competition . A comprehensive literature review suggests that academia is divided on t...Show moreA mong re newable resources, water has been a constant f ocal point for concerns over scarcity and inter state competition . A comprehensive literature review suggests that academia is divided on t he link between water scarcity and international relations . T h is analysis asks : How do inter state economic ties a ffe ct the influence of water scarcity on hydro political inter state relations? Building on classic liberal economic argument s this paper hypothesize s that the more two states are connected th rough trad e agre ements, the less likely it is f or water scarcity to lead to co nflictual hydro political r elations. I conduct an O rdinary Least Squares r egression and a M ulti n o mi al L og i stic r egression with ‘precipitation ’ as an independent variable, ‘inter state rela t ions’ during water eve nts as a dependent variable and ‘trade agreements’ ( aggre gated and disaggregated in bilateral and multilat eral t reaties ) as a conditiona l va riable. E ven though the empirical results are not robust across all models , a general directi on o f the moderation effect is evident. Inter state economic ties in gener al, and multilateral trade agreements in particular can diminish the negative effect of water scarcity on hydro politics. Potential future research should further test the rob ustne s s of this relationship and introduce more nuance by differentiating be twe en trade agreement types and improving the operationalization of the water scarcity variable.Show less
