A Space for Predictive Modelling in England’s Archaeological Heritage Management System: A case study of modelling site patterns in Roman Hertfordshire, England

In this thesis, the potential of archaeological predictive modelling within England’s Archaeological Heritage Management (AHM) system is assessed through the case study of Roman-age Hertfordshire, in south-east England. The case study involves the creation of an archaeological predictive model from the bottom-up, using only open-access data. An assessment is also made on the quality of the open-access digital infrastructure within England, as well as on the knowledge that can be gained from the creation and product of the model. A detailed description of the collected data provides information about the environment (elevation, soil, geology, hydrogeology and river system), the social aspects of the landscape (Roman road network and towns) in addition to the modern-day factors which impact planning permissions (land-use, modern roads, protected areas and scheduled monuments). The quality of the environmental data is evaluated for its applicability to the Roman landscape in...Show moreIn this thesis, the potential of archaeological predictive modelling within England’s Archaeological Heritage Management (AHM) system is assessed through the case study of Roman-age Hertfordshire, in south-east England. The case study involves the creation of an archaeological predictive model from the bottom-up, using only open-access data. An assessment is also made on the quality of the open-access digital infrastructure within England, as well as on the knowledge that can be gained from the creation and product of the model. A detailed description of the collected data provides information about the environment (elevation, soil, geology, hydrogeology and river system), the social aspects of the landscape (Roman road network and towns) in addition to the modern-day factors which impact planning permissions (land-use, modern roads, protected areas and scheduled monuments). The quality of the environmental data is evaluated for its applicability to the Roman landscape in Hertfordshire. Archaeological site data (n = 4358), provided by the Archaeological Data Service (ADS), is categorised into site types (settlements, economic, ritual, military, water sources and miscellaneous). The representability of the archaeological data is evaluated for potential observational biases. The Roman Hertfordshire predictive model is created using deductive techniques (weighted multi-criteria analysis) and an inductive technique (site density). The final product predicts five areas of archaeological potential within Roman Hertfordshire, ranging from ‘Very High’ to ‘Very Low’. The model is evaluated for its predictive abilities by an unused testing sample of archaeological sites. The accuracy and precision of the model’s predictions are tested using Kvamme’s Gain equation, producing a high-yielding score of 0.72. The applications of the Roman Hertfordshire predictive model are discussed in the context of its uses within the modern development process. Proximity-based analysis of the different site types is explored in regards to water sources, Roman roads and Verulamium (St. Albans). The elevation of different site types are also analysed.Show less

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A Space for Predictive Modelling in England’s Archaeological Heritage Management System: A case study of modelling site patterns in Roman Hertfordshire, England